Wednesday, October 15, 2008

OMAR NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE!!!



Omar is now a POWERFUL major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115mph...  The central pressure is down to 967mb which means Omar has dropped 34mb in 48 hours...  Not only are the pressure fails impressive but the shear fact that Omar went from a depression to a major hurricane in 48 hours is extremely impressive...  Especially when you consider the fact that NO ONE really saw this coming...  I will say the 18z GFDL nailed it yesterday...  Which is also impressive even for a high resolution triply nested grid point model...  Like I said yesterday the trend is your friend in forecasting and with something as uncertain as topical cyclone intensity forecasting, I'll always go with the trend at your hands...  You could see Omar continuously explode and look better and better with each progressive hour...  That's why I thought the 18z GFDL would be correct...  Not any hardcore science just experience and intuition with the trend in front of you! 

The explosion in intensity with Omar is directly related to the more eastern movement of Omar...  Because of the unforeseen strength of this storm two days ago it's being influenced much more by the upper level steering flow which is going to end up saving Puerto Rice from the worst of Omar...  Unfortunately for the Virgin Islands, Omar is only about 30 miles away from impact...  With the movement now NE at 20mph the eye of major hurricane Omar is very close to the island of St. Croix...  Conditions have already gone downhill fast and I expect the worst to be near the US Virgin Islands in about an hour or so...  I have to admit that the storm chasing side of me would love to be in St. Croix right now...  I know that may sound crazy but it's the honest truth...  My passion for hurricanes is the driving force behind my love for weather...  There is nothing like being in the eye of a hurricane to me....  NOTHING, Period end of story....  My thoughts and prayers go out to everyone in Puerto Rico, the Northern Leeward Islands, and especially St. Croix which will just miss a direct hit to their south!  I NEVER want to see anyone get hurt my these magnificence storms!  The powerful is unmatched but unfortunately what they do to humans is horrible sometimes...


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