I Sure Hope This is Wrong!!!

All I have to say is I PRAY that doesn't happen!!! My parents live in Coral Gables so this would be Catastrophic for them and the City of Miami... 905mb at landfall would be 4mb stronger than Camille at landfall... OF COURSE this is extremely unlikely, but I have to admit the track is starting to scare me... The models are come back left today and the general idea is a strike near Southern Florida... I do think Ike will continue to cycle up and down and it even might weaken some going through the area Hanna was... However once it releases from Hanna's tracks, it will be entering a VERY dangerous area for explosive development! I do truly fear this storm!

Really quick Hanna is getting destroyed with dry air still and I'm starting to wonder if it will even get back to a hurricane by landfall... I still think Wilmington, NC is the spot but I think a minimal Cat-1 is likely at this point!!! More on Ike later...

Dry Air Killing Hanna...

I knew the dry air was a concern, but I'm a little surprised how much has wrapped into Hanna today...  I thought the core would be able to tighten up, keeping the dry air out...  This is not the case at all as tons of dry air has infiltrated the core of Hanna killing it slowly....  There still is a chance it could get some of this dry air out but honestly I think it's too late in my personal opinion which is GOOD news!  I still think Hanna will get to a hurricane at landfall but I doubt it will get to a Cat-2 at this point...  Of course it's still going to travel over the Gulf Stream and the wind shear has relaxed but unless the dry air gets out it's over for Hanna...  It really just goes to show you how perfect an engine a hurricane really is!  Any disruption, even the slightest, can make a huge difference in the long run of a hurricane...

I wonder now if Ike will make that turn since you don't have Hanna as a strong hurricane...  There is now going to be less heat pumping the ridge which could be critical in the end...  Remember the smallest thing can make a huge difference in the end with a hurricane...  Ike is a powerful Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140mph and a pressure of 938mb...  It will continue to cycle up and down all the way to the Bahamas...  From there it's a coin flip....  Even though with what I'm seeing with Hanna I'm leaning with a turn to the north now just before Florida...  This will make a big difference in the long run with Ike...  If it does hit southern Florida I see Ike as a Cat-4 hurricane at landfall...  If it misses Florida and heads to the Carolinas I see Ike as a Cat-3 hurricane at landfall...  It will be interesting to watch that's for sure!  I'll I know is it's so amazing to me how fast things can change in the tropics!  Hanna's air is coming out while Ike engine is running at full speed...  More updates to come later!!!

IKE EXPLODES!!!

I'll I got to say is WOW!!!  Rapid intensification doesn't do it justice, IKE EXPLODED!!!

5pm:  984mb at 80mph

8pm:  960mb at 115mph

11pm:  948mb at 135mph

That's a 36mb drop in 6 hours!!!  Truly amazing and just goes to show you how fast a hurricane can deepen...  This is now a very dangerous hurricane that is primed to strike the US...  Of course the million dollar questions is where?  The models generally take Ike into the Bahamas and then things get tricky...  Does Ike keep west and hit Florida, or does it turn north into the Carolina's???  It still way too far out to say for sure, but again Hanna may give us a clue...  One thing that makes me want to lean towards a Florida hit is the fact they we could have 2 major hurricanes on our hands...  Say Hanna gets to a Cat-3 and Ike gets to a Cat-5, think how much latent heat is being released into the atmosphere!  All this is going to do is pump up the ridge and help Ike more west...  Ike should eventually turn north but I wonder if all that extra heat will help it just enough west to make landfall in Florida?  

Either way we have a BIG problem on our hands...  Is it going to be an Andrew like strike or a Hugo like strike...  Of course I pray Ike doesn't get near as strong at landfall as those two killer storms, but honestly it's very possible...  Especially if the ridge does build in more than the models show...  Not only will Ike get pushed into Florida it will be under ideal conditions for a Cat-4/5 especially when you think about the heat content in the Bahamas!!!  If the ridge is weaker and the trough gets Ike we still will have a bad situation on our hands, but usually when a trough picks up a hurricane it elongates the storm some, spreading out the wind field...  This doesn't mean it won't be a major hurricane, but the risk for a Cat-4/5 is usually much less...  It's still way too far out to know for sure but the more I look at Ike the more he scares me...  As my good friend Justyn Jackson would say, it's a BUZZ SAW!!!

My feelings on Hanna haven't changed much since my last update...  It continues to get better organized and I still think it will be a hurricane by tomorrow...  From there I see it intensifying fairly quick Thursday night into Friday...  I'm sticking with a 115mph Cat-3 landfall near Wilmington, NC...  It could be a little east and maybe a little weaker, but I think that's going to be pretty darn close...  We will see though?  

Hanna looking east...

Hanna is beginning to wrap its core back together and should be a hurricane again Thursday morning... Wind shear has relaxed to 20-30 knots and looks to get around 10 knots tomorrow as Hanna moves NW... There still is a decent amount of dry air on the western half of Hanna but it looks to be dissipating some and moving out... Tomorrow and especially into Friday I think we will see Hanna start to deepen fairly quick... It will be tapping into a couple of outflow jets and it's moving towards the Gulf Stream! Joe Bastardi from accuweather has Hanna getting down to 950mb which I actually think is very possible...



I felt good about a more eastern track yesterday and it now looks like the border of South Carolin/North Carolina is about as west as Hanna will go... The NHC has really gone east as well today moving its center line a little east of Wilmington, NC... Hanna's center reformed today to the east under an area of deep convection... Because of the center reforming east I'm now leaning towards a Wilmington, NC to Morehead City, NC landfall... The furest west I could see Hanna go is Myrtle Beach, SC and the furthest east I could see Hanna go is Cape Hatteras, NC... At this point I'm still sticking with a 115mph Cat-3 landfall near Wilmington, NC... The dry air is some concern for intensification but I feel with the shear relaxing and the Gulf Stream in Hanna's future, a Cat-3 is very obtainable... More posts to come later!

Hanna, Ike, and Josephine...

Hanna right now looks VERY ragged...  It has been getting destroyed by up to 50 knots of shear...  Anything over 20 knots is not good for tropical systems...  Usually you want less than 10 knots to really see a tropical system explode...  With 40-50 knots it's honestly amazing to me that Hanna has been able to keep itself alive...  To me this shows a lot about this storm and once the condition become more favorable I fully expect Hanna to explode...  The environment looks near perfect for intensification on Thursday into Friday...  We saw with Gustav how fast a storm can explode so again if I lived in South Carolina all the way to Wilmington, NC I would be a little worried... 

 

The more east it goes the more time over water it will have and the stronger Hanna will be...  I think it will be a little right of the NHC's track and I honestly think it can get to a Cat-3 before landfall...  Even if it doesn't it will be a strengthening storm so every knot of wind will be making it down to the surface...  The maximum potential shows that the ocean water can sustain up to a Cat-4/5 with 920-930mb...  Obviously it doesn't have the time to do that, but it shows you the potential for rapid intensification once the shear relaxes...  At this time I think Hanna will make landfall between Charleston, SC and Wilmington, NC as a 115mph Cat-3...  Again the more east it goes the better shot it has at being a major hurricane...  Hanna could get nasty!!!  

Ike is looking pretty good right now as it continues to head towards the west...  The big question with Ike is does it turn north towards the southeast US, or does it keep west into Florida and the Gulf...  A big part of that answer may lie with Hanna...  If Hanna can help create enough of a weakness in the ridge then most likely Ike will follow behind and turn north towards North Carolina...  However if Hanna doesn't put enough of a weakness in the ridge then Ike will continue west into Florida and possibly the Gulf of Mexico...  This is a really tough forecast right now so I'm going to hold off a little on Ike...  I have no doubt this will be a powerful and dangerous storm but it's just really hard right now to pinpoint a track...  I do think it will turn but I think it will get into Florida before it makes that turn north...  Let's watch what Hanna does first and then we will have a better idea on Ike's track...  I'm really just guessing at this point!!!

Josephine is still WAY too far out to really have any idea on where it's going to track...  Right now I'm leaning towards Josephine heading out to sea...  However again it's still Way too far out to know for sure..  I'm actually much more impressed with that monster of a wave coming off Africa right now...  That's VERY impressive!!!  The wave train is going strong right now but things look to be calming down after what could be Kyle gets into the eastern Atlantic...  The upswing of the MJO is starting to move out with the next upswing expected to come in October...  Remember these pulses of rising motions travel across the globe just like weather systems travel across the globe...   This doesn't mean you can't get any tropical systems during a downswing, but it's far less likely one will develop...  

Final thoughts on Gustav...

I got back late last night after chasing Hurricane Gustav...  We were bunkered in a sturdy movie theater on 90 east about 5 miles south of Lafayette, LA...  We saw sustained winds around 60mph with gusts around 85mph...  The chase for the most part was fairly uneventful but I did enjoy watching two of my friends getting to chase a hurricane for the first time...  There was one close call though...  Diving back to Starkville on 55N between McComb and Jackson there were a decent amount of trees coming down...  Michael Haynes and I were in the left lane dogging a decent amount of debris when all of a sudden a huge 50ft + tall pine tree fell down into the right lane about 5-10 feet from us...  It really was a close call and if we would have been in the right lane I think at the very least my car would have been destroyed...  It really seemed like it was in slow motion and I'm just VERY grateful the tree missed us...  I have said this many times but in my opinion the drive back from a chase is the most dangerous part of the chase...  I feel much more safe in my bunker even in a Cat-3/4 then driving back in the dark, tired, and truly being at the mercy or others and mother nature...  You can't predict a tree coming down so honestly a lot of this just like life in general is the luck of the draw...  Again I'm just very happy we got back safe!!!

Photo Credit:  AP Press

On a side note, I can't tell you how lucky New Orleans got!  I'm very happy/thankful the levees held, but wow that was close...  What scares me is Gustav was a weakening Cat-2 way west of the city and they still came about 1-2 feet from going under???  This should be a warning for the city officials of New Orleans...  They did an EXCELLENT job in getting everyone out and there is no doubt they should be praised for their actions...  However I would be very worried with what I saw with the levees...  To me it's time to act NOW with the levees because if you don't your playing with FIRE!!!  The biggest thing I learned from Gustav is a direct hit from even a average Cat-2 would put New Orleans under...  I understand that you can't stop mother nature but you have to have that city protected up to at least a solid Cat-3...  The threat is SO HIGH that not learning from this would be very foolish and honestly just plain dumb!  Hopefully this will open every ones eyes and help the city do what it needs to vastly improve the city's levee system...  From what I saw with the evacuations I have some hope the city's government will do the right thing...

Later tonight I'm going to put together a fairly detailed tropical update...  I'm already preparing myself to get ready to go after Hanna and Ike...  There is also a possibility I might go after Josephine, but I feel like she will head out to sea...  Hanna is going to be a problem for South Carolina/North Carolina in my opinion...  I really could see Hanna getting to a major hurricane at landfall...  I know it's getting annihilated with wind shear right now but once that relaxes and Hanna turn back north, the environment looks almost perfect for rapid intensification...  Ike looks like a problem for Florida and MAYBE the Gulf...  It's still too far out to say anything for sure, but it does look like a MAJOR threat to Florida...  Things are about to get crazy!!!

Quick Update...

Michael Haynes and myself are in a Days inn a few miles south of Lafayette, LA... Nothing much is going on but bands are starting to approach from the east! I fully expect to see 100mph + winds here at our location... The storm looks to be slowing down and turning more to the west... I actually think the eye is going to past very close to us! We have found a huge movie theater to ride out Hurricane Gustav... It's very similar to the movie theater we rode out Katrina in... Gustav still looks to be tightening up and the core is becoming a very compact storm... This tightening and the westward turn will allow Gustav to hold its own, if not ramp up some before landfall... I could see it ramp up to 125mph at landfall... I probably won't be able to update the blog later today but I'll post on my twitter account as much as possible... I pray tonight for everyone in Louisiana as tomorrows dawn will bring major hurricane conditions!!! OH, HAPPY LABOR DAY EVERYONE!!!