I Just Don't Get It???

First, last night the low was 48 at GTR and 47 at Columbus... Yet again the 12z GFS MOS failed which meant the NWS forecast failed as well... Even though the NWS updated from 44 to 46 last night with the help of Jared... Thanks Jared for the effort!!! I just don't understand how yet again the NWS is going with the 12z GFS MOS numbers... 12z GFS MOS went 51 for the low and guess what the NWS is going 51 as well for the low tomorrow... I'm honestly at a loss for words at this point... The dewpoints are in the mid-50's with clouds streaming in and you really think it will be 51 tonight? Again I really do have a LOT OF RESPECT for the NWS so that's why I'm so shocked with a continued lack of effort on the forecast...

The 9pm CT temperature at GTR is 61 with a dewpoint of 55... With the amount of water in the ground, dewpoints in the mid 50's, and clouds streaming in, again do you really think it's going to get down to 51??? NO WAY!!! I would say around 56 is better for GTR and that could be too low with the clouds... But still it's better than 51... This is the last time I'll say anything about this but again I'm just honestly at a lost for words at this point... I guess it's just a good teaching example for my students on why you should NOT just rip GFS MOS numbers unless you want to get killed on your forecasts! There is a time to use MOS and there there are PLENTY of times NOT to use MOS... My goal as a teacher is to make sure my students understand how to use MOS vs. RAW vs. Common Sense in an effective manner that will make them the best forecaster possible... If you follow the weather everyday and put effort/pride into a forecast you will be rewarded most times!!!