The GFS was showing a nice chilly Saturday with its runs last Friday/Saturday, pushing the cold front through Starkville, MS way too fast... It was also way too strong!!! This is a typical bias of the GFS pushing cold fronts through the Southeast way too fast and also it's typically way too aggressive with the cold air... Unfortunately it looks more and more like a rainy Saturday for the Mississippi State vs. Houston homecoming game right now, so this GFS common error is once again coming true... Remember, even though it's a common error it doesn't always happen... That's why you really need to look at other things going on around the world like the Japan trough/ridge teleconnection we'll get to here soon....
The European was all over this current cold front, even though in fairness the European didn't do so well with the last good cold front... The GFS was actually much better... However even though it wasn't the best with the last good cold front, IMO it had a good handle on this current setup from day one and TYPICALLY it's the superior global model... This is off the top of my head but the European model has a ~ 24 km horizontal resolution (In November it will be upgraded to ~ 16 km) compared to the GFS ~ 40 km horizontal resolution... Also the European uses 91 vertical layers compared to the GFS 64 vertical layers...
Currently the GFS has come around now becoming similar to the look of the European... Both are showing a decent cold front pushing through the Southeast Sunday... The GFS more Saturday night into Sunday morning, where the European is more Sunday night into Monday morning in my opinion... It's tough with the European to give an exact time frame since you can't look at the surface/precip panels... This makes a LOT of sense to me when you consider what is going on in Japan right now... What was super typhoon Melor is closing in on Tokyo and it began its turn north about 3 days ago... I have talked about this in great detail a few times before but this particular teleconnection would say that a strong trough broke down a strong ridge about three days ago SE of Japan, so 6-10 days later we should see a decent trough pushing through the Deep South into the Atlantic... Because we are getting closer to winter and the wavelengths are getting longer, I would say we're closer to the beginning of the 6-10 days... I would say today were looking at about 7 days for the teleconnection to correlate to the east coast... So you subtract three days when the turn began were at about Sunday... Add 7 days to that and we should see a nice trough pushing through the Southeast this Sunday... For Starkville, MS more Saturday night/Sunday morning...
With Saturday not only is the 18z GFS showing a rainy day, the 18z NAM and the 21z SREF is also showing a rainy Saturday... Again with the cold front pushing through early Sunday I tend to agree with this right now... Of course this is still a few days out but things are really starting to come together well... I will say the Canadian seems to be a little quicker with the front and the European seems a little later with the front... Again Sunday does seem like the day the front pushes through but any difference in the timing (earlier or later) will make a big difference for the game Saturday... Again with the teleconnection I'm leaning towards EARLY Sunday which should mean a rainy Saturday for us in Starkville...
We could have a MUD BOWL on our hands... We have had WAY TOO much rain here in Starkville!!! I actually just checked my rain gauge and we had another 1" of rain last night at my house in West Starkville... That brings the total to near 16" at my house since September 17th... Even though today was dry, our intramural football game was cancelled tonight due to soaked fields... If I'm right with the rain Saturday it's going to be NASTY!!! Quick update, I just checked the 0z NAM and it's still in line with a rainy Saturday!!! More updates to come!
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