Halloween Night Rain Update....

I got 1.35" of rain at my house in West Starkville, MS Friday afternoon into Saturday morning... The models were a little low but 1.00"-1.25" was pretty darn good overall... I haven't asked what some other people across Starkville got but I'm sure 1.00"-1.25" was fairly good... I may have gotten a little bit more because the first supercell we saw with the wall cloud yesterday grazed my house a little... Who knows though 1.35" may be representative of most of Starkville...

On a side note, I sure had a LOT of trick or treaters tonight! I always had a great time as a kid on Halloween so it was good to see the little kids enjoying themselves... I have to say though that not all the kid were "little"... I even had a few parents with bags asking for candy... A little weird but oh well I still gave them a couple pieces...

Surprise Storm Chase!!!

Today we had a successful storm chase that wasn't even expected!!! It's funny because that happens sometimes... I've seen a nice wedge shaped tornado before on a see text day so again, it can and does happen... We were under a slight risk, 5% tornado, but honestly I didn't expect much at all today... We didn't see any tornadoes, and who ever did report a tornado near Starkville was BADLY MISINFORMED!!! I understand that people get excited, but when you report tornadoes that don't exist all you do is cause chaos and fear... Also you destroy any tornado database we have with horrible data! How in the heck can you do an accurate tornado research project when your database is corrupted with bad tornadoes??? I know that's part of the game but again please don't call scud, or dust, or even a smoke stack a tornado!!!

We saw a nice wall cloud with a discrete supercell to the west of 25N... I also saw a nice shelf cloud move through MSU's campus and head towards West Point and Columbus, MS... No tornadoes, but still it was a successful chase in my eyes... Saw a lot of nice structure on a day I didn't think I was going to chase... Can't beat that!!! Below is some video from our chase... I was with Michael Carter and Henry Long... I was also with Jon Harris for the first supercell that had a wall cloud... Justyn Jackson, Tim Wallace, and Athena Owen were in another car next to us on the first supercell as well... Again it was a fun and successful chase and thankfully there were no tornadoes, damage, or injuries to the best of my knowledge!!! I think everyone will also enjoy the video, which is titled "Great Plains of Mississippi"... You'll see why after you watch it!!!

10/30/09 Storm Chase Video

Great, More Rain!!!

This morning we got a quick 1" of rain at my house in West Starkville... Last nights 0z NAM didn't show much rain at all, however last nights 0z GFS did very well... It showed closer to .75" for us in Starkville and again it CRUSHED the 0z NAM... I don't know what's up with the NAM but it hasn't been preforming so well over the last 6 months or so... Doug Gillham always says, "never underestimate a warm front"... That was taught to him by one of his teachers and he has tried to instill that on us... Again 1.00" was higher than anyone predicted but considering how much rain we have had over the last 6 weeks I kind of think in these situations the extra moisture sort fed back on itself... You ever people say drought breeds drought, well I'm guessing IMO that extra moisture helps maximizes your rain potential...

Unfortunately A LOT more rain is on the way... Again we had 1" last night, about .33" on Tuesday, and the models are showing at least another inch of rain Friday late afternoon through around noon Saturday... The 0z NAM is showing 1.00-1.25"... The 18z Canadian (GEM Regional) is showing about 1.20"... The 18z GFS is also showing about 1.00-1.25"... The HPC is going with 1.00-1.25" as well... So I guess that's pretty good agreement!!! Bottom line is we don't need the rain but it looks like at least 1.00" is a safe bet this Friday/Saturday...

As the rain was coming down this morning by backyard was under at least 2 or 3 inches of water... That's NOT a good sign... It's getting to the point that flooding has to be a concern especially back in Arkansas/Louisiana where they could be looking at close to 5" of rain in some locations... That's just WAY too much rain considering how much rain we have had... At my house we have had over 22" in just under 6 weeks... And that's not even close to what some areas across the Deep South have recieved!!! The NWS in Jackson did a GOOD JOB addressing this flood threat in Arkansas/Louisiana on their 5:15am morning discussion!

Timeline of the SPC...

Here is a really cool link to the timeline of the SPC... Rob Hart tweeted this earlier today and I thought I would add it to my blog for all to see... I highly recommend everyone to check this link out... There are lots of things/facts on the timeline I had no idea about! It's amazing to see how far the SPC has come in the last 60 years or so!!! Thanks Rob for the link! Great find...

SPC TIMELINE...

Hurricane Dennis Video...

I just posted a 9 minute video on Hurricane Dennis... This was a major hurricane John Walker and myself intercepted in Pensacola, Fl on July 10th 2005... This was the first major hurricane (120mph) US landfall during an INCREDIBLE season I'll NEVER forget for the rest of my life! On July 9th John and I started in Mobile, Al and made our way to Pascagoula, MS... On the way there we checked out Bayou La Batre, AL... I was amazed at how historic/interesting this gulf coast fishing town was but at the same time I knew in my heart you CAN'T survive a major hurricane there... The worse of Dennis thankfully missed them but unfortunately less than 2 month later Hurricane Katrina pretty much destroyed this historic gulf coast fishing town...

We finally got to Pascagoula, MS around dark on the 9th to stop and get a room and check things out... I think it was a holiday inn but whatever the hotel was it had some GREAT food... One big mistake we made was staying up all night watching Dennis... At the time it was a 145mph Category-4 Monster so it was hard to sleep anyways, but I've learned that you need SOME sleep when you chase... Even 3 or 4 hours can be huge... By dawn we started to realize that Dennis was shifting a little right so we decided to head back towards Mobile, AL... I actually called Doug Gillham for some help, but just as I started talking to him his wife went into labor so he had to go to the hospital ASAP... Funny enough his first daughter Riley was born at almost the same time Hurricane Dennis made landfall in Pensacola, FL...

Justyn Jackson actually helped us out and we found an AWESOME parking garage about a 1/2 mile from the water in the heart of Pensacola, FL... In Hurricane Ivan the surge got about 12 feet high in this garage so I knew we were going to be safe since Hurricane Dennis wasn't going to be the same surge producer as Hurricane Ivan... I also knew we were in the right spot when I saw Warren Faidley across the street from us! Dennis made landfall around 3pm CT as the western side of the eye went right over us... As you know typically the strongest winds are found in the NE quadrant of the eyewall but this particular hurricane was unique in the fact that the winds were as strong if not stronger in the NW quadrant of the eyewall... The convection really looked better on radar in the NW quadrant of the eyewall as it went over us... The winds were basically calm there for about 30 minutes or so...

This of course was not even close to the worst hurricane I have been in but honestly it was one of the most hardcore I've gone when it comes to chasing! By the end of Dennis I was probably the most tired I've ever been in my life to that point!!! I would have just stayed in the parking lot and slept if it wasn't for the curfew in place... We had to get back to Mobile, Al by dark so John and I somehow kept each other awake by talking and an occasional punch to the shoulder... We got back to Mobile, AL around 9 pm or so and I immediately collapsed on the coach... The next thing I knew it was around 1pm the next day... I slept for almost 16 hours straight!!! I've never done that before and the scary part was I swear it just felt like I just closed my eyes for about 2 seconds... It was a weird feeling and I've NEVER fallen asleep so fast in my life!!! If there is ever another major hurricane heading towards Pensacola, FL I know exactly where to go... That place was a FORT!!! Enjoy the video, and hey, NO CUSS WORDS!!! :-)

Hurricane Dennis Stormpulse

© Greg Nordstrom 2005

ANY USE OF THIS VIDEO WITHOUT PERMISSION FROM GREG NORDSTROM IS PROHIBITED AND WILL BE PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW...

Starkville Rain Update...

I got .81" of rain at my house in West Starkville, MS last night... Justyn Jackson told me he got just over an inch near campus in East Starkville... So it looks like .75" to 1.00" was fairly common across the Starkville area... Again the 0z GFS from two day ago was almost spot on... Besides the convection in the northern gulf I really can't see another reason why the system under produced... It over produced in Texas so I do think the idea of hurricane Rick's entrainment adding to rainfall totals had some merit... Like I said last night, forecasting is tough and sometimes mesoscale processes/events can put a BIG hamper on your forecast!

On a side note tomorrows big game between MSU and Florida looks good... Temperatures should be near 50 at kick off dropping into the upper 40's through the game... I know it would take a miracle but I sure hope MSU wins... I was actually at the MSU vs. Florida game in 2000 which was one of the loudest/craziest games I've ever been too... Thanks to Jeff Perry I'm going to be at the game tomorrow which should be fun either way...

0z GFS Wins!!!

Well it looks like last nights 0z GFS is going to win the battle of rainfall accumulations... I really thought the HPC was on the right track especially because of the fact that this system absorbed what was hurricane Rick... However, this system is completely underachieving and honestly there is only one reason IMO as to why it's doing that... There is a lot of convection in the northern gulf coast which is blocking the inflow to the rest of Mississippi... The flow from the gulf has to go over this convection which means where not going to get the same low-level moisture/inflow we should have gotten... I would like to think without that convection in the gulf we would have achieved at least 2" of rain... When it didn't start to rain until almost 6pm and the rain was so spotty in nature, I new the higher amounts where "most likely" not going to happen...

This is actually good news because we've had PLENTY of rain in the last 5-6 weeks(20"+)... The HPC has backed off a lot, basically cutting it's rainfall in half (1.25") for us in Starkville... Also tonight's 0z NAM has backed off a lot, cutting it's rainfall all the way to .5" for us in Starkville... As I look at the radar I don't see us getting 1.25" of rain unless things really start to fill in... With the convection still in the northern gulf blocking the inflow to Mississippi I think now were looking at around .75"-1.00" with some areas getting a little more than an inch... Still a decent amount of rain but NO WHERE near the 2-3" I thought we could get... Hey that's forecasting and weather in general... If it was easy everyone would do it!

Lots of rain on the way!!!

Were looking at a lot of rain here in Starkville, MS over the next 36 hours or so... We should start to see some rain developing by around noon tomorrow with the heaviest rain coming Thursday night into Friday morning... The HPC is calling for near 2.5" of rain over the next 48 hours... The 0z NAM is calling for near 1.5" of rain over the next 48 hours... The 0z GFS is closer to 1" over the next 48 hours... I actually think the HPC is going to be close if not even a little low because of the tropical feed from what was hurricane Rick... This system has basically absorbed the remnants of hurricane Rick which I think the models are having trouble seeing... That's why I like the higher amounts targeted by the HPC... I think 2-3" of rain will be common across the region with some spots getting over 3"...

Best of Tornado Video...

I just posted the Best of Tornado Video from the 2004 LDCT Great Plains Storm Chase!!! It was actually hard to condense all of it into a 10-minute video... I tried my best though and I hope everyone enjoys it! It always brings back good memories! I'm ready for the 2010 LDCT Great Plains storm chase right now!!!

*WARNING* There are cuss words, so again if you are sensitive to that then I wouldn't watch... It's really not that bad though! However I'm giving everyone fair warning!

© Greg Nordstrom 2004

ANY USE OF THIS VIDEO WITHOUT PERMISSION FROM GREG NORDSTROM IS PROHIBITED AND WILL BE PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW...

Extremely Powerful Hurricane Rick...

Hurricane Rick is now a DANGEROUS Category-5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180mph (906mb)... I'll leave some images and the Public Advisory/Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center... It's so well done that I can't add much more! Dr. Lixion Avila is a great forecaster (Senior hurricane specialist) at the NHC!!!

Public Advisory:

000 

WTPZ35 

KNHC 

180235 

TCPEP5 

BULLETIN 

HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER  11 

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009 

800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009  

...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 

1997...  

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST 

COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS 

SEVERE HURRICANE.  

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK 

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 

WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES ...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 

MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES ...975 KM...

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.  

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...

22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON 

SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD 

BEGIN ON MONDAY.  

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO 

STRENGTHEN... AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 

ESTIMATED NEAR 180 MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE 

ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS 

IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.   

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...

75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 

EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM.  

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB/26.75 INCHES.  

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE 

SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.  

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION... 

LOCATION...15.0N 105.9W 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH 

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH 

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB  

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 

CENTER AT 200 AM PDT.  

$$ 

FORECASTER AVILA

Forecast Discussion:

000 
WTPZ45 
KNHC 180236 
TCDEP5 
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009 
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009  

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE 
EXPRESSED IN ONE WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE 
DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. 
ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE COULD SEE THE 
SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYEWALL 
AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE 
HURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 
7.0 AND 7.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB 
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 
7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4 DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO  
BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN 
INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE SECOND 
STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
AFTER LINDA IN 1997.  

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE 
STRENGTH TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE 
HURRICANE WILL FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 
HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS 
THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER 
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH 
GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS 
ALREADY REACHED...OR IS VERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  

RICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER 
MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...THE STEERING PATTERN 
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH HAS 
BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM MEXICO 
WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH.  
THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE 
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS RICK MOVING 
WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE 
IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH 
AND NORTHEAST AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND AND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE 
ENVELOPE.  

THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT 
APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. 
INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS 
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS   

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
INITIAL      18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W   155 KT  
12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W   160 KT  
24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W   150 KT  
36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   140 KT  
48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W   120 KT  
72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W   105 KT  
96HR VT     22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W    80 KT 
120HR VT     23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W    40 KT...INLAND  

$$ 
FORECASTER AVILA

Loma Prieta 20 Years Later...

Today is the 20th anniversary of the Loma Prieta 6.9 magnitude "World Series" earthquake... I actually remember this day very well... I was living in Los Angeles at the time watching the pre-game of San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland Athletics world series game-3 when all of a sudden everything went black... You could hear briefly Al Michaels saying we're having an earth-... He didn't quite get out the quake part... Even though I was living in Los Angeles I had no idea the San Francisco area was getting hammered by a earthquake as the San Andreas Fault slipped... Because of the bedrock in California it's not like Memphis (sedimentary soils) where a 6.9 magnitude earthquake would be felt a LONG way away... Fairly soon the news came in and you could see it was VERY BAD!!! Unfortunately 63 people died and another 3,757 were injured leaving thousands and thousands homeless...

I'll leave some links about the 20th anniversary and two amazing slide shows from this historic quake... I'll also leave video links from just after the quake in San Francisco and amazing video during the world series pre-game when the quake occurred at 5:04pm local time... I know it has been said before but there is NO DOUBT in my mind that the world series game saved a LOT of lives... It occurred during rush hour but thankfully most people were either at the game or at home getting ready to watch the game because it was San Francisco vs. Oakland... I can't even imagine how much worse it could have been if it hit during rush hour traffic on a typical Tuesday... Many more people would have died!!!

Slide Show-1

Slide Show-2

Video-1

Video-2

20th Anniversary

Bay Area Safer?

USGS

Weekend Forecast Update...

Well it looks like the NWS 59 and mostly sunny skies was WAY too optimistic... Ironically they updated it to 60 today??? I just don't see where they were getting mostly sunny skies from but hey it is what it is... The high at GTR and Columbus both look to be 55... It felt cold also with winds gusting out of the north and northwest at 23 mph... I was initially thinking the stratus would start to break up later tonight but honestly I don't think that's going to happen now... My 43 should be close with clouds, wind, and wet soils... Tomorrow I'm glad to see the NWS updated to 55... I pretty much agree with that even though I'm leaning a degree maybe two cooler because I really don't see the stratus breaking up anymore...

One thing I should have thought about is the fact we have two good storms moving up the east coast... The first storm is already exiting with the second one forming right now... This will help pull the cold air even more south as a strong low moving up the eastern seaboard (one-two-punch) only helps amplify the trough... This will bring even colder air down south and again it's going to be very TOUGH to mix out the inversion the moisture is trapped under... Tomorrow night should be near 38... The only reason I'm not going lower is the threat of some lingering clouds and the amount of water in the soils... Sunday things "should" finally clear out helping it warm up a little... I'm thinking upper 50's right now... Probably around 58 or 59... Sunday night with the clear skies I'm thinking about 36... Again because of the amount of rain we've had I can't go much lower than that...

Cold Weather on the Way...

The next few days is going to be a bit chilly in Starkville, MS... The NWS is going with a high of 59 tomorrow but I think that is WAY too optimistic... If we had mostly sunny skies then yes 59 would be possible but with the clouds I think we'll have tomorrow I'm thinking more like 55 maybe 56 tops... There should be enough moisture trapped below an inversion tomorrow that a low stratus deck will be around most if not the entire day as we'll be experiencing strong CAA... I just don't see it mixing out! It's going to feel COLD also with winds out of the north and northwest of 15mph...

Tomorrow night should start to slowly clear out but I think the NWS low of 45 isn't bad... Personally I would probably go a couple of degrees lower but because of the threat for some lingering clouds and winds still staying up around 5-10mph, around 43 should be close! Also again I've had over 20 inches of rain at my house sent September 17th so the ground is soaked... In the last 48 hours I've had about 1.65" at my house in West Starkville... This will keep us from maximizing our low temperature tomorrow and for the rest of the weekend... 20 inches of rain doesn't just disappear...

Saturday "should" be a little warmer as it will be mostly sunny... The NWS 58 should be close... Saturday night I do think we'll get into the upper 30's but because of all the soil moisture I don't think it will get much lower than 38 degrees... Without all the rain we've have had I would probably go about 3 or 4 degrees lower... Either way it's going to feel cold the next few days... However I refuse to turn on my heater... Not going to happen!!!

"Halo" Cloud in Moscow...

One of my Intro to Meteorology students posted an awesome link about some amazing looking clouds in the shape of a "Halo" over the skies of Moscow, Russia... I thought I would post a link to the story so everyone can check it out... I actually put it up on my twitter account yesterday even though the original link has changed... Here is a statement about the event:

An official spokesperson for Moscow's weather department said, "Several fronts have been passing through Moscow recently, there was an intrusion of the Arctic air too, the sun was shining from the west — this is how the effect was produced."

Of course I don't think it was a UFO but hey I'll let you be the judge of that... :-)

"Halo" Cloud Over Moscow

8 Years of LDCT...

Today is the 8 year anniversary of the formation of LDCT... It stands for the LONG DISTANCE CHASE TEAM, which is the name of our storm chasing group... Tim Wallace coined the named 8 years ago tonight and it become official in an email sent out a few days after the chase... I'll leave a copy of the email at the end of the post...

Justyn Jackson, Josh Johnson, Todd Beal, and myself drove from Starkville, MS to Waco, TX and back... While it wasn't my first storm chase (2/24/01), it was the first chase I went on as one of the founding members of LDCT... We went about as hardcore as you can go... We drove about 30 hours straight with basically no sleep back and forth through a nasty squall line heading through the Mid-South/Deep South... On the night of the October 12th 2001 we saw two nice supercells with awesome wall clouds near Malone, TX... We followed the line back through Texas, Louisiana, and into Mississippi to intercept more supercells near Jackson, MS that were tornado warned... When we finally got back to Starkville it was quickly under a tornado warning as well... The Mississippi State vs. Troy State football game was going on when the tornado warning forced the evacuation of the stadium... While we didn't see any tornadoes that night/day, it was still a chase I'll never forgot! On that chase I saw something I have never seen since... I saw a CG do a complete loop... Yes, I saw a lightning bolt do a loop!!! Justyn was right next to me when it happened and we were both like WTF? It just goes to show that you can and will see things storm chasing that you don't always see in a book or hear from a professor...

SPC Storm Reports 10/12/01

SPC Storm Reports 10/13/01

The funny/ironic thing about LDCT is how many people laughed at us when we would go out... Most of these so called storm chasers that laughed would only chase if it was within a hour or two drive of Starkville, MS... Our Motto/Theory has always been go hard or go home... We wanted to experience everything we could no matter how hardcore it was going to be... None of this convenience chasing stuff... Still people used to say enjoy chasing the rain... The best part though, in only a couple of years everyone went from laughing at us to wanting to go with us... And when we came back from the Great Plains chase of 2004, NO ONE laughed anymore when we showed videos of the Attica, KS, Anthony, KS, Argonia, KS, Conway Springs, KS, and the Albany, MO tornadoes... Derek Cody with the help of Justyn also got on the Mulvane, KS tornado, which may be the most beautiful tornado I have ever seen... LDCT cleaned up that spring and honestly I doubt we'll ever have a chase season like that again...

In a 16 month span from 5/12/04 to 9/25/05 I had run that I doubt I'll ever see again... I saw at least 18 tornadoes including many unbelievable ones like Attica, KS (featured on storm stories), Albany, MO (Got 100-200 feet from a awesome multiple vortex tornado), Argonia/Conway Springs, KS (Two Massive 1/2 mile wide tornadoes, including 3 tornadoes on the ground at once), and the Anthony, KS/West Point, MS night tornadoes... What I'm most proud of is the 7 hurricanes (5 major) during this time frame... I was in hurricane Charley (Most amazing chase in my life period!!!), hurricane Frances, hurricane Ivan, hurricane Cindy, hurricane Dennis, hurricane Katrina (Gulfport, MS), and hurricane Rita... This amazing period ended with a mesocyclone induced F-1 tornado that hit my apartment with me in it on 9/25/05 from the remnant feeder-bands of hurricane Rita... About 24 hours earlier I was in the eye of hurricane Rita in Orange, TX which is just crazy!!! ALL of these chases were done under the storm chasing logo of LDCT... It was a great run that will probably be tough to replicate again... It's not impossible but honestly it's not very likely either...

Being one of the founding members of LDCT is something I'm very proud of... We formed this group because we wanted to learn as much as possible about weather! I was truly blessed to have great friends, great professors, and an amazing meteorology program, but I wanted to learn even more... I knew this was the best way to go about it! I don't storm chase for money or fame, I chase because I LOVE IT!!! I feel such a huge level or peace/tranquility when I storm chase... I know that may sound weird to most but it's always there when I storm chase... I'm sure many that share this same passion understand this... There is nothing like being in the eye of a major hurricane, or inside a 1/2 mile from a large wedge tornado, or even hearing thunder while snow is falling at 2 to 3 inches per hour... The power of God is AMAZING!!! I encourage everyone that loves the weather to storm chase with proper training... OBVIOUSLY that should be common sense... No professor, meteorology program, or book can replicate the real life learning experiences you will have while storm chasing!!!

Folks,

First of all, I want to thank all of you for participating in the chases on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Our teams saw many interesting storm features as well as lots of local flavor (Keeping It Real Detail being one). All of your efforts led to a better informed public; a goal we always hope to achieve.

Our Long Distance Chase Team (LDCT 1) consisted of Todd Beal, Justyn Jackson, Josh Johnson and Greg Nordstrom. They put several hundred miles on Todd's car in a chase that led them near Waco, TX. In fact, they spotted two wall clouds near Malone, TX. They have good video of at least one of them. They are to be commended for their enthusiasm and dedication to their future profession. They even had enough energy to chase a tornado warning near Jackson on Saturday after driving for nearly 30 hours straight.

I would also like to thank Gina Storey, Ryan Wade and Wayne Verno for their efforts in guiding LDCT 1 to a safe viewing point from which to see the storms. They stayed at the lab well beyond normal hours in order to provide the team with information and encouragement.

On behalf of those chasing on Thursday and Saturday I would like to thank Mike, Wayne and everyone else for their hard work in the Lab. Their efforts helped to keep the teams informed and out of danger as well as keeping the public informed. The teams saw many interesting things thanks to their efforts.

Keep up the good work everyone. NOMISSIT is only as good as its members.

Sincerely,

Tim Wallace
Climate Lab Coordinator
Mississippi State University

West Point, MS Night Tornado Update...

It was just brought to my attention by Justyn Jackson that the NWS in Jackson, MS did add this tornado into the local storm reports... I've never seen in on the SPC's records but again the NWS Jackson did add it to their local storm reports... Here is the link!

West Point, MS Tornado 10/18/04

West Point, MS Night Tornado...

I just posted a 10-minute video of a really cool nighttime tornado near West Point, MS on October 18th 2004... It was such a crazy/lucky experience!!! We were only under a See Text that day by the SPC, mainly as I remember due to a strong cap... There was actually 28 tornadoes up into Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri... It really was a random/lucky event for us... I was coming home from school when I saw a nice tower going up... In very little time it was evolving into a beautiful rotating thunderstorm... I told Justyn Jackson to come out and look at it, and quickly we decided to call Lauren Raymer and go after it... We followed it to West Point, MS where we went east on highway 50 for about 3 or 4 miles when we saw a large tornado illuminated by lightning... It was crazy because before we saw the tornado there was constant violent lightning for about 10-15 minutes when all of a sudden it almost stopped completely... At about that point we saw an amazing tornado lit up by the few intense lightning strikes we had left...

I would say we got about 10 or so great views into the storm when the tornado was on the ground... We did the right thing and called it into the NWS but they didn't believe us... Ironically, many months later we gave this video to Todd Beal who showed it to the NWS Memphis, who then acknowledged it was definitely a tornado... However, still to this day I've never seen it in the SPC records... Very ironic when you really think about how many "BAD" tornadoes make it into the tornado records... I'm not going to go into the politics of that, but basically The Video Speaks For Itself... Enjoy!!!

On a side note there is some interesting lighting research out there relating to tornado genesis... Some talk about the polarity of the strikes, frequency of the strikes, and other interesting theories about structure/life cycles of lightning strikes and tornado genesis... In this case I've read a few papers on how intense lighting follow by near no lightning can be a sign of tornado genesis... Of course like any research you can interrupt the data anyway you want, but either way I would recommend reading up on some of these interesting papers... There are also many papers relating lightning and hurricanes, dealing with eye-wall replacement cycles/intensity... Again if you search the internet you will find a LOT of information on these subjects...

*WARNING* There are a few cuss words in this video... If you are sensitive to language then I wouldn't watch the video... It's not that bad at all, but I thought I would still give everyone fair warning...

© Greg Nordstrom 2004

ANY USE OF THIS VIDEO WITHOUT PERMISSION FROM GREG NORDSTROM IS PROHIBITED AND WILL BE PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW...

MSU vs. Houston...

It looks like everything has sped up enough that the MSU vs. Houston homecoming game should be OK... I'm sure the field will be soaked (Even though apparently the drainage system is amazing) but the heaviest rain should be gone and into South Mississippi / Alabama by game-time... There still may be some lite rain/drizzle during the beginning of the game, but it's looking more and more likely that the heavy rain will be long gone... I really thought the front would slow down enough that the heavy rain would be near Starkville during the game... The front is starting to really slow down overall but again it SHOULD be past us by game-time...

Looking at the teleconnections and how typhoon Melor was being steered, I thought the front would be about 12-18 hours slower... Not horrible from 4-5 days out but still WRONG!!! The overall idea of the teleconnection did well... I'm thinking I blew it on when Typhoon Melor started to turn... It looks like the ridge started to break down a little faster than I originally thought! Why is that important? This meant I was off on the initial breaking down of the ridge, which is HUGE in teleconnecting the pattern here in the US 6-10 days later... It's not a perfect science but it really helps you in long range trough/ridge patterns recognition a week out... I should have focused a little harder on the initial break down of the ridge/turn of Typhoon Melor... We'll see what happens tomorrow... Go MSU!!!

NASTY!!!

Today was NASTY!!! The high reached 88 degrees at GTR and at 3pm it was 86 over 77 which again is just NASTY... Especially when we have been lucky with how cool things have been with all the rain... I know its been WAY too much rain, but one of the benefits of all that rain is cooler weather... Today had to be one of the hottest/humid days in Starkville in a month or so... But at least it was windy right... haha... We did have winds gusting near 20 mph from the south and southeast... Tomorrow will be similar with rain and thunderstorms on our doorstep by tomorrow night... Because of the blow off I don't think we'll get to 88... Probably a degree or two lower...

Saturday still looks rainy even though the recent 0z GFS model run has everything speeding up a little, getting most of the heavy rain out before game-time... The older 18z GFS models had heavy rain during game-time... The Canadian slowed down today and the NAM is a little quicker... The European looks consistent and similar to yesterday but it's not digging in the trough near as much as the other models... Definitely a lot more west to east movement... It's going to be close but I still think we will see rain during the game...

I've been slacking with more video uploads but things have been crazy with the Intro to Meteorology midterm... I updated most of the test which took a LONG time... I'll get the West Point, MS tornado video up soon, followed by the best of hurricane/tornado videos... Below is the comparison of the GFS model runs from 18z and 0z...

GFS 18z

GFS 0z

THE MUD BOWL...

The GFS was showing a nice chilly Saturday with its runs last Friday/Saturday, pushing the cold front through Starkville, MS way too fast... It was also way too strong!!! This is a typical bias of the GFS pushing cold fronts through the Southeast way too fast and also it's typically way too aggressive with the cold air... Unfortunately it looks more and more like a rainy Saturday for the Mississippi State vs. Houston homecoming game right now, so this GFS common error is once again coming true... Remember, even though it's a common error it doesn't always happen... That's why you really need to look at other things going on around the world like the Japan trough/ridge teleconnection we'll get to here soon....

The European was all over this current cold front, even though in fairness the European didn't do so well with the last good cold front... The GFS was actually much better... However even though it wasn't the best with the last good cold front, IMO it had a good handle on this current setup from day one and TYPICALLY it's the superior global model... This is off the top of my head but the European model has a ~ 24 km horizontal resolution (In November it will be upgraded to ~ 16 km) compared to the GFS ~ 40 km horizontal resolution... Also the European uses 91 vertical layers compared to the GFS 64 vertical layers...

Currently the GFS has come around now becoming similar to the look of the European... Both are showing a decent cold front pushing through the Southeast Sunday... The GFS more Saturday night into Sunday morning, where the European is more Sunday night into Monday morning in my opinion... It's tough with the European to give an exact time frame since you can't look at the surface/precip panels... This makes a LOT of sense to me when you consider what is going on in Japan right now... What was super typhoon Melor is closing in on Tokyo and it began its turn north about 3 days ago... I have talked about this in great detail a few times before but this particular teleconnection would say that a strong trough broke down a strong ridge about three days ago SE of Japan, so 6-10 days later we should see a decent trough pushing through the Deep South into the Atlantic... Because we are getting closer to winter and the wavelengths are getting longer, I would say we're closer to the beginning of the 6-10 days... I would say today were looking at about 7 days for the teleconnection to correlate to the east coast... So you subtract three days when the turn began were at about Sunday... Add 7 days to that and we should see a nice trough pushing through the Southeast this Sunday... For Starkville, MS more Saturday night/Sunday morning...

With Saturday not only is the 18z GFS showing a rainy day, the 18z NAM and the 21z SREF is also showing a rainy Saturday... Again with the cold front pushing through early Sunday I tend to agree with this right now... Of course this is still a few days out but things are really starting to come together well... I will say the Canadian seems to be a little quicker with the front and the European seems a little later with the front... Again Sunday does seem like the day the front pushes through but any difference in the timing (earlier or later) will make a big difference for the game Saturday... Again with the teleconnection I'm leaning towards EARLY Sunday which should mean a rainy Saturday for us in Starkville...

We could have a MUD BOWL on our hands... We have had WAY TOO much rain here in Starkville!!! I actually just checked my rain gauge and we had another 1" of rain last night at my house in West Starkville... That brings the total to near 16" at my house since September 17th... Even though today was dry, our intramural football game was cancelled tonight due to soaked fields... If I'm right with the rain Saturday it's going to be NASTY!!! Quick update, I just checked the 0z NAM and it's still in line with a rainy Saturday!!! More updates to come!

Fall Break...

I just wanted to let everyone know I'm going to take it easy during our fall break on Monday and Tuesday, but really quick I wanted to say that I got another 2.25" of rain at my house yesterday! With the 0.5" I got Thursday night/ Friday morning it brings the total a my house in West Starkville to near 15" of rain since 9/17/09... That's a TON of rain and again it will continue to play a role on our temperatures in the future... So basically DON'T GO WITH GFS MOS!!!

I actually love rainy days like Sunday sometimes... Temperatures in the upper 50's with moderate rain all day long... Plus you add NFL football and it's a great day! To bad the Raiders SUCK (At least I have the Lakers)!!! In all seriousness though, all I needed was a fireplace to make the day near perfect... Monday was a cloudy dreary day, but at least there was no rain... At this point we have had PLENTY!!! The high only got up to 64 at both GTR and Columbus which felt nice to me... I know if you are at the beach for Fall break then your probably a little upset, but hey at least the rain is gone!

Anyways, I'm going to enjoy fall break (Monday/Tuesday) and try to take it easy and clean up my house some... I still have way too many boxes to unpack... I swear it never ends when you move! Wednesday/Thursday I'm going to upload some more storm chasing video... Also eventually I'm going to make a best of tornado/hurricane video! It should be pretty cool... Peaceout for now, and enjoy fall break if you are lucky enough to have one! :-)

56 Too Warm!!!

Really quick I just wanted to say that the low got down to 57 at GTR (1-2am) and 58 (3am) at Columbus... I had a feeling that 56 was too cold with the clouds but hey it's a LOT better than the 12z GFS MOS... Thank God nobody went with the 18z GFS MOS which lowered it from 51 to 49... I mean 51 is bad enough but 49 is just laughable!!! To be honest I only put about 10-15 minutes into this forecast last night but it's not hard to see the obvious... Especially when you have CLOUDS streaming into the area... Again 56 was too low but it DESTROYED the GFS MOS...

I Just Don't Get It???

First, last night the low was 48 at GTR and 47 at Columbus... Yet again the 12z GFS MOS failed which meant the NWS forecast failed as well... Even though the NWS updated from 44 to 46 last night with the help of Jared... Thanks Jared for the effort!!! I just don't understand how yet again the NWS is going with the 12z GFS MOS numbers... 12z GFS MOS went 51 for the low and guess what the NWS is going 51 as well for the low tomorrow... I'm honestly at a loss for words at this point... The dewpoints are in the mid-50's with clouds streaming in and you really think it will be 51 tonight? Again I really do have a LOT OF RESPECT for the NWS so that's why I'm so shocked with a continued lack of effort on the forecast...

The 9pm CT temperature at GTR is 61 with a dewpoint of 55... With the amount of water in the ground, dewpoints in the mid 50's, and clouds streaming in, again do you really think it's going to get down to 51??? NO WAY!!! I would say around 56 is better for GTR and that could be too low with the clouds... But still it's better than 51... This is the last time I'll say anything about this but again I'm just honestly at a lost for words at this point... I guess it's just a good teaching example for my students on why you should NOT just rip GFS MOS numbers unless you want to get killed on your forecasts! There is a time to use MOS and there there are PLENTY of times NOT to use MOS... My goal as a teacher is to make sure my students understand how to use MOS vs. RAW vs. Common Sense in an effective manner that will make them the best forecaster possible... If you follow the weather everyday and put effort/pride into a forecast you will be rewarded most times!!!

GFS MOS = BAD!!!

Again I'm not trying to pick at the NWS but man this is starting to get a little frustrating... Also I'm not saying the GFS MOS is always bad (Great for typical weather setups) but when you have near a FOOT of rain (NOT TYPICAL) in the last two weeks it's not going to pick up on that... I believe MOS updates soil moisture once a week and obviously the GFS MOS has not updated for a while... It's kind of like when you get a fresh snow pack and the MOS is 5-10 degrees (sometimes 20 degrees) off on the low because it has no idea there is fresh snow pack... Radiational cooling + fresh snow pack = busted MOS numbers... The same thing is going on with the GFS MOS with all the rain we have been having... The moisture is being evaporated into the atmosphere keeping the dewpoints up!

For the last week all I'm seeing is 12z GFS MOS numbers for Starkville's low... Two nights ago 12z GFS MOS went 47 and that's what the NWS went... The low was 54 at GTR and 51 at Columbus... Last night the 12z GFS went 58 and that's what the NWS went... The low was 63 at GTR and 63 and Columbus... Tonight the 12z GFS went 44 and guess what, the NWS is going 44 tonight for Starkville... I'm not saying this to be critical, but if you keep blowing the low night after night maybe you should stop ripping 12z GFS MOS numbers and actually put some effort into the forecast... It's quite possible the lows are coming from a computer program pulling the GFS MOS numbers, but man I hope that's not the case! I'm not the smartest person in the world but I can at least recognize a common error of MOS... So I'll say this right now, there is NO WAY it gets down to 44 tonight especially when we had another 1/2 inch of rain last night! I'm going to say around 48 maybe 47 tonight which still may be too low...

Even if by some fluke it gets down to 44 (It won't) I still can't understand ripping 12z GFS numbers when you are getting burned night after night... I have a LOT of respect for the NWS and that's why I'm a little shocked by this... The funny/interesting thing is I couldn't be a part of the NWS because I don't have the math requirements... I understand it's a weed out process, but IMO I think this should be changed ASAP!!! It should be based off forecasting abilities and not the fact that I don't have DE... Doug Gillham who is one of the best forecasters in the country can't work for the NWS... That's just crazy to me...

Anthony, KS Night Tornado Video...

I just uploaded a 10 minute video of the Anthony, KS night tornado... After breaking off from Jon Davies and Jim Reed we started to follow a second supercell with a nice wall cloud... About 45 minutes after the Attica, KS tornado we ran into the Anthony, KS tornado... It really was an amazing tornado that I wish was during the day... Even though I have to say that because of the constant intense lightning we saw a good bit of this particular tornado... It was cool to see all the stages of the tornado even at dark! I'm sorry but you can chase at night! I've seen MANY nighttime tornadoes... Yes of course I wish it was during the day but when you run into a situation like the Anthony, KS tornado, that much lightning almost makes it feel like daytime anyways!

At the end of the video when the Anthony, KS tornado was roping out you can see another tornado to the left... At that point at least those two tornadoes were on the ground and possibly a third but I never counted it because we really couldn't tell for sure... Anyways that second tornado unfortunately hit a house later that received a F-4 rating by the NWS... Even though it was only a slight risk day there were 19 tornadoes... To say the least it was a crazy day I'll never forget for the rest of my life!!!

May 12th 2004 Storm Reports
NWS Harper County Outbreak (Wichita, KS)


*Warning* Again there are a few cuss words... Not near as much as many videos I have posted... But still I wanted to warn everyone!!!

© Greg Nordstrom 2004

ANY USE OF THIS VIDEO WITHOUT PERMISSION FROM GREG NORDSTROM IS PROHIBITED AND WILL BE PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW...