Ida Now becoming a "Nor Easter"... Poised to LASH the Mid-Atlantic!!!

My thoughts on Ida phasing and becoming a major "Nor Easter" is starting to unfold... The main problem is going to be the duration of this storm! This is not going to be a top 10 "Nor Easter" in terms of pure strength but the duration will make this a storm to remember... Here is a quote from Joe Bastardi about this impending storm, "It is a situation coastal resident should take very seriously. For while you wont get the wind of a hurricane, the amount of damage on the coast from waves will rival any hurricane in the past 25 years from hatteras north I think and with rain amounts to 6 inches in some places as far north as Va beach, The Ghost of Ida has a scary look indeed." My thoughts about this storm from previous posts still apply but I thought this quote summed it up well... I'll have my grades out from Ida sometime tomorrow... People along the North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, and Southern New Jersey shores need to get ready for ONE HECK of a storm that will last into Saturday!!!

Ida is NOT done yet!!!

Tropical Storm Ida is now down to 60mph and honestly I'm having trouble believing that looking at satellite imagery... It's probably barely a TS at this point... However, Ida is NOT done!!! Ida is currently merging with the what's left of the "hybrid" energy and a trough to eventually form one heck of a Nor Easter!!! What's left of Ida will pop off the Georgia coast in about 36 hours! Things will start to get crazy then as what's left of Ida will be nearing the gulf stream... Combine that with a trough and you are going to have one NICE storm for the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... It's not looking that bad for a lot of New England but from about New Jersey south, ESPECIALLY along North Carolina, Virginia, and the Delmarva coasts, LOOK OUT!!!

You're gong to see about 3 straight days (Wednesday/Thursday/Friday) of constant battering as this "Nor Easter" won't be moving very fast at all... Tuesday expect A LOT of rain across the Southern Appalachian states and by Saturday this storm will begin to weaken and die/move out!!! Expect 50mph + winds, coastal flooding, lots of rain, and also a lot of beach erosion... Basically a strong Nor Easter that won't be moving fast... In the end I really think Ida will be more known for this "Nor Easter" instead of it being a hurricane!!! I posted model images from tonight's 0z GFS above!!!

Tropical Storm Ida Nearing Land!!!

Ida continued to maintain near hurricane strength this afternoon... There was a nice convective burst this afternoon which helped keep Ida's strength up! Interesting how this burst occurred near the core of the tropical cyclone which is a clear indicator that it's STILL a warm cored system... The recon data shows this as well... Yes the outside of the hurricane is becoming extra tropical quickly but the CORE IS NOT!!! Just look at Lili in October 2002 that went from a strong Cat-4 to a Cat-1 in about a day! Similar things were going on with Lili as it was interacting with a trough and much cooler waters left by Isodore... Also there was a lot of shear and dry air ripping Lili apart! It was completely stretched out however again the core was still warm...

IMO if you rank the system because of processes/wind speeds within the CORE than you have to stay consistent is naming something extra-tropical because of these same processes going on within that core... Almost every hurricane becomes extra-tropical to some point before it makes landfall, especially along the northern gulf coast as the northern half is typically stretched out... Even look at a hurricane like Katrina... It was so HUGE that the northern half was definitely becoming extra-tropical before the eye made landfall as it was interacting with land and a strong trough... I know that is an extreme example but still it goes to my point about the core...

People can get WAY TOO caught up into the physics of the storm from time to time instead of using COMMON SENSE... If the physics were so good then what's the point of having meteorologist in the first place??? I mean if the physics are the gospel then why in the heck can't it get a 3 day forecast yet alone a 1 day forecast correct? Don't get me wrong, the physics are VERY IMPORTANT in assisting a meteorologist in becoming the best forecaster possible, but PLEASE USE COMMON SENSE!!! It's like still looking at a radar when you are on a nice supercell, and you can see everything with your own eyes!!! If you can see the wall cloud, then why in the heck would you still be dependent on the radar especially since the images are about 5/6 minutes old? Again COMMON SENSE meteorology... I feel very lucky/blessed to have been taught this applied/common sense meteorology by people like Doug, Justyn, Tim, Josh, and many others...

Tomorrow I'll grade my forecasts over the last 4/5 days... I'm very proud of my long range forecast but like always there is a lot of room for improvement!!! Especially in the short term! I'm my own worst critic because honestly the only person I'm trying to impress is myself... I don't mind criticism at all but I ask you to AT LEAST put out your own ideas first!!! If you put out a forecast and you want to criticize mine that's completely cool with me, but if you play arm chair forecaster then honestly I have very little time/respect for you... If you are not Man/Woman enough to put your own ideas out first then honestly save your breath! Ripping and reading every couple hours or saying you knew somethings after the fact doesn't make you a good forecaster... Try putting out your ideas 4/5 days out and see how well you do... Honestly that is the best way to learn and get better!!!

As of 9pm CT, Tropical Storm Ida now has 65mph sustained winds and a pressure of 997mb... However I seriously doubt we will see 65mph sustained winds ANYWHERE... With a weakening storm like this I would be surprised if we even see 60-65mph wind gusts! Landfall should occur near Baldwin County around 4am CT... I know it's not going to be bad at all, but still I hope everyone is safe tonight! Even the weakest storms can be dangerous if you're not careful!!!

Tropical Storm Ida...

I knew Ida would weaken rapidly with cooler waters, wind shear, and dry air but I'll be the first to say that I'm a little surprised it weakened as fast as it did... I really thought it had a decent shot at still being a hurricane at landfall, but at this point it will only be a tropical storm at landfall... It doesn't look like the NHC will label Ida extra-tropical at landfall which I agree with 100%... Also they now have it as a 55/50 knot TS at landfall which I think it probably going to be close... Again I thought it would be close to 65 knots at landfall (75mph) which is NOT going to be correct!!! At this point I would say around 60mph winds are the highest surface winds we will see with Ida... I was leaning strongly NO on chasing Ida already but obviously this is the nail in the coffin for me... There were a lot of negative factors working against an Ida storm chase but with it not even being a hurricane at landfall there is a 100% chance of me NOT going!!! I'll just be on guard for next year as I'm already in prep-mode for my next hurricane chase! Hurricanes are always 365.25 for me!!! :-)

NHC Now Thinks Hurricane at Landfall...

The NHC's latest advisory now thinks Ida will be a hurricane at landfall and NOT extra-tropical... I've been saying this since Thursday and especially when you see the NHC name things like tropical storm Grace, I was going to be a little frustrated if they called Ida extra-tropical right before landfall... It wouldn't have played into whether I chased or not but it would be very inconstant which is NOT what I want/hope to see... I promise you that Ida, even at landfall, will be more tropical in nature than Grace ever was!!!

My thoughts with chasing are still the same but the main thing that will probably keep me from going is the timing... Ida keeps picking up speed and I think now it will make landfall at dark during the very earilier morning hours of Tuesday... Weakening category-1 hurricane + nighttime = BAD CHASE IMO!!! I'll make my finally decision tomorrow morning but I'm more like 75/25 NO at this point... However things can change quickly!

In the short term I have NO problems with the NHC's track but I STRONGLY DISAGREE with the last two days! Ida is NOT going to turn right and ride along the Florida/Georgia border... The trough is going to pick up both the hybrid and Ida merging them together near Alabama/Georgia!!! With all this energy merging together WATCH OUT for a massive Nor Easter riding up the eastern seaboard... For more info on this refer to a couple posts back (One more thing about Ida)... I'll have an update tomorrow!

Hurricane Ida up to 105mph...

Hurricane Ida has strengthened to 105mph with a pressure of 979mb... Looking at the satellite imagery I'm not sure if Ida will get to 115mph... I would say it could get to 110mph, which is only 1mph away from a major hurricane! I have no problem with the NHC's track in the short term... I think Pensacola, FL will be close to the landfall point... It could be as west as Mobile, AL though... Also I still think this area will see hurricane force conditions (mostly gusts) whether or not the NHC says Ida is extra-tropical at that point or not... With chasing this is a tough call... Again I DON'T CARE if the NHC says it's extra-tropical but I do care if we don't get hurricane force conditions at the surface for very long... Not to sound arrogant but it's not really worth my money or time to drive down for 60 mph winds with the hurricanes I have been through over the years... If it were closer to 80 mph then I would probably go, but with a weakening hurricane you're not going to get the max wind potential... I'll make up my mind by tomorrow morning but right now I have to say I'm 51/49 NO on this one... Normally I would probably be 80/20 NO but since this year has been completely dead I'm really considering it... It's not that far of a drive! More updates later...

One more thing about Ida!!!

No one is really talking about this but Ida is going to eventually merge with the "hybrid" and a cold front to become one BEAST of a Nor Easter!!! Again Ida is NOT going to merge with the "hybrid" in the short term but when they come together with the cold front near Alabama/Georgia, LOOK OUT!!! This is similar to a "perfect storm" setup up but over land instead of water... Am I saying this is going to be as bad as the "perfect storm", HECK NO!!! But this is going to be a very bad storm for the east coast! I'm sorry but the NHC is dead wrong with Ida hugging the Florida Panhandle... Ida and the Hybrid will get picked up by the trough and it's game set match IMO!!! I honestly don't know why the NHC is not seeing this? I know it good to stick with your forecast until the very end but when it's obvious that it's wrong I personally would adjust ASAP!!! This slow adjust on the forecast/intensity is NOT forecasting IMO!!!

Some people are hyping Ida up way too much but at the same time this is a RARE event!!! The only landfalling hurricane in mid-November along the northern Gulf coast in my lifetime that I remember is hurricane Kate in 1985!!! Ida is not going to be bad as far as wind damage but we still should see hurricane force winds (mostly gusts) near Mobile/Pensacola... In mid-November that's BAD!!! Also again don't sleep on the rain potential... Hopefully with Ida moving fairly quick it won't be that horrible!!! So before I go, it's all relative to the time of year... Yes in September a weak hurricane is nothing along the northern Gulf coast, but in mid-November this is a rare event we may not see again for a long long time! You have to keep that in mind when you forecast! Also WATCH OUT for the Nor Easter!!! It's going to be a storm to reckon with!!!

Hurricane Kate 1985