Saturday, November 7, 2009

NHC Now East With IDA!!!

I'm really glad to see that the NHC has come back east and is now in line with my thinking with the track of Ida... For whatever reason the NHC typically is biased towards GFS data... Even their models are run off GFS model data so I guess it makes a lot of sense when you really think about it... Like I said earlier today the GFS has a HARD TIME with heat transfer and typically likes to "hand off" this energy to the westerlies... I've seen this too many times in the tropics and I had a feeling it would be even worse than normal with us being in November... In the end my track being closer to Cuba than the Yucatan is looking good... I still differ with the NHC's track on Tuesday/Wednesday because I do think Ida makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle... I really think Ida has gained enough speed/momentum to get caught enough by the trough and pulled into land...

Now with the intensity... The NHC is finally acknowledging that Ida will regain hurricane strength... That's not a slap towards the NHC but even late last night it was only forecasting a 45 knot storm... When I look at the satellite presentation I'm SHOCKED that Ida is not already a hurricane... I hate to say it but I have to wonder if this is not yet named a hurricane because of verification procedures I unfortunately see a lot... Again the NHC is the best and the brightest in the entire world when it comes to hurricanes but I don't always agree with the way they go about things... The consistency is not there and it's very subjective at times... I'm NOT a big fan of that and I have to say that I do agree with MOST of what Joe Bastardi says on this particular issue! I don't think the NHC should take this personally either! It's just a way to improve on a product that is already really good... In life when you think you are perfect you are only setting yourself up for failure... Even the smartest people in the world can improve everyday! I know I need to improve a lot in many aspects of my life!!!

Anyways, enough of that rant... Like I said earlier today I think Ida has a chance at being a hurricane at landfall... How strong it gets in the short term is very important! If Ida does make it to a strong Cat-2/weak Cat-3 like I think it can, then I feel fairly confident, as long as it keeps the forward motion up, that it will hit the Florida Panhandle as a Category-1 hurricane... If it doesn't quite get that strong and the forward speed slows down then I think a strong tropical storm is more likely... The NHC could declare Ida as extra-tropical just before landfall but honestly that's not going to matter a whole lot... 60 mph winds is 60 mph winds either way! If it can maintain hurricane strength then I'm going to chase Ida!!! It's going to be close with both the track and the strength so stay tuned for more updates!

Before I go I wanted to quickly touch on the low in the SW gulf... This "hybrid" should be just off the Louisiana coast early Monday morning... It will produce very gusty winds with some nice waves throughout the day along the coast of Louisiana... Even though it won't be named it will feel similar to a weak tropical storm! The main threat however is the amount of rain this "hybrid" will produce! The HPC is showing 4 to 5" rain all along the Deep South even before Ida gets here... And if Ida does stall just onshore (Most likely won't!!!) then were going to be looking at some BIG flooding problems.... Especially in places east of Mississippi like Georgia that have had WAY more rain than Mississippi in the last 2 months... No one is really talking about this but I would watch this VERY closely if you live in Georgia/Southern Appalachians.... The threat is DEFINITELY there!!!

Also I want everyone to see the GFS error first hand... Look at the images above from tonight's 0z GFS... The top image is 24 hours out and the bottom image is 36 hours out... See how the GFS is pulling Ida north and west... The "hybrid" storm is only adding to the problem as the GFS wants to phase these storms together in the short term! NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!! They are two SEPARATE entities and the GFS is trying to "hand off" energy from Ida to the "hybrid"... The main thing this "hybrid" storm is going to do to Ida is VENTILATE IT!!! Another reason why I think Ida has a good shot at maintaining hurricane strength all the way to landfall... Just loop an IR satellite image right now from the Gulf of Mexico and you can see the two SEPARATE storms yourself... It's not rocket science as the GFS is OUT TO LUNCH!!!

One thing I've been hearing from some meteorologist that it a little disturbing is how the rain we should see in north-central MS on Monday into Tuesday is going to be dependent on Ida? Really??? I hate to break it to everyone but the rain in north-central MS is going to be from the "hybrid" storm and is NOT dependent on Ida... Most of the rain from Ida looks like it will miss Starkville to the east... We could get a little rain from Ida but again the heaviest rain from Ida will be east of Starkville, MS into Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and the Southern Appalachians... I'm not saying this to be a jerk but it's not accurate!!!

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