Saturday, November 7, 2009


I know I have said this before, but SOON TO BE HURRICANE IDA is feeding back on the extremely warm NW Caribbean waters like a Great White on a Seal... The ideas for Ida are now all starting to come together... I think Ida will get close to a major hurricane (111-mph +) as it enters the Gulf through the Yucatan Channel... I'm still east of the NHC because I'm not buying the GFS in the short term... I'm nick picking a little here and the NHC has come back east some, but the GFS is NOT resolving the heat transfer correctly in this situation... It's a typical bias of the GFS to transfer heat north towards the trough instead of consolidating or bundling the energy like it should!!! The low in the SW Gulf is also messing with the GFS and its heat transfer ideas... Ida's energy is obviously consolidated/bundled so you are NOT going to see a transfer of heat/energy north and west... I'm still sticking with Ida NOT clipping the Yucatan Peninsula and at the very least going through the middle of the Yucatan channel...

My thoughts on a northern Gulf coast landfall are still the same... With Ida starting to gain some speed I actually think it WILL get picked up by the trough and it WILL make landfall in the Florida Panhandle... As fast as Ida is going to ramp up, it will also quickly ramp down... I'm starting to think know that Ida will be moving fast enough that it really could be a hurricane at landfall... At the very least I think it will be a strong tropical storm! I'll be back later tonight with more updates but my thoughts on soon to be Hurricane Ida are starting to come together nicely!!! Not wishing anything bad on anyone but it's about time we had something to talk about in the tropics pertaining to the US!!!

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