Thursday, November 5, 2009

Tropical Depression IDA...




Ida has now been downgraded to a topical depression as she continues to move through the eastern part of Nicaragua... Ida actually made landfall earlier this morning as a weak Category-1 hurricane along the southeastern Nicaragua coast... The future of Ida is very tricky!!! What it comes down to is the amount of time it spends over land and as it moves over land can Ida keep a decent look pertaining to the core and outflow pattern... Also does the shear relax like it is forecasted? It has been moving east of the NHC's track today mainly because it feels that warm water just offshore... Hurricanes obviously don't like land so it's trying to get back over water as fast as possible... Even the slightest shift east can have a HUGE impact on the future forecast of Ida...

Anyone see the 12z/18z GFDL today? Wow!!! The 12z GFDL bombed Ida out to 129 knots as it entered the Gulf of Mexico and the 18z GFDL bombed Ida out to 125 knots as it entered the Gulf of Mexico... I seriously doubt Ida ever gets that strong but I do think the GFDL is picking up on the possibility of Ida strengthening over the open UNTOUCHED EXTREMELY warm waters in the NW Caribbean... The atmosphere doesn't have a calendar, so when the waters are that warm it doesn't matter to the hurricane whether it's November or August... If you have all that energy available then you are looking at some problems when it comes to intensification...

Another interesting factor with Ida that was brought up today by Joe Bastardi is the fact that Ida strengthen fairly rapidly as it approached Nicaragua in colder waters/low heat content... When it pops off the Honduras coast it will be in water that is way above normal... So if it strengthened like that over cooler water, what will stop it from exploding over the warmer than normal waters/high heat content? This water that it's about to enter is by far the warmest water left in the tropical atlantic... The heat content is off the charts for this time of year! Also the shear is forecasted to weaken significantly so I think there is a lot of potential...

Of course this all depends on what Ida looks like when it finally does hit those waters... If it is somewhat intact, then look out! If it's ripped up, then there isn't much to worry about... My track is to the right of the NHC by about 100 miles or so... I actually think Ida should be closer to Cuba than the Yucatan Peninsula... At the very least I see Ida splitting the middle and not clipping the Yucatan Peninsula like the NHC track is currently forecasting... I don't see it getting to a strong Cat-4 like the GFDL thinks, but I do see it getting to a strong, possibly even a major hurricane if it can stay together once it enters the open waters of the NW Caribbean... Of course the shear would have to relax as well...

IF, and I mean IF this happens it will be interesting to see what Ida does as it enters the Gulf... Once you get past 25N latitude the waters/heat content of the Gulf of Mexico starts to decrease dramatically... Even if you have a strong hurricane it will die QUICKLY unless it's moving fast enough to sustain its hurricane strength as it heads towards the Northern Gulf... Lets just say you had a Category-3 has it entered the Gulf and it was only moving at about 10mph as it headed north... I would seriously doubt you would even have a hurricane on our hands at landfall... However if it's moving closer to 20 mph then yes I think it could be a hurricane at landfall... The slower it moves the less likely it will be a hurricane at landfall... This will all depend on the position of the High when Ida does enter the Gulf... The more on the western periphery of the High Ida is the faster it will move!

Either way the main threat for the the Gulf coast and the SE is the potential for A LOT OF RAIN!!! As you know by now we have had WAY TOO much rain across the SE over the last two months... Even though it has been dry for nearly a week now, I'm still looking at near 2 feet of rain at my house since September 17th... So if we do have a tropical system on our hands during the middle of next week I'm not liking the flooding potential there is... Also even with a weak hurricane making landfall and the amount of water in the ground, a lot of trees could come down... We'll see what happens but there is a decent threat of a hurricane entering the Gulf early next week... However the next 24-36 hours is KEY!!! If it looks decent (Core + Outflow) as it enters the very warm waters of the NW Caribbean then we have a problem on our hands... If it looks ragged and torn up then I'm NOT going to be too worried about development... Only time will tell and I'll be back for more updates!




Also really quick don't sleep on that low in the SW Gulf of Mexico!!! I don't think it will get named since it won't be entirely tropical (Hybrid) but it's going to bring A LOT of rain to the SE especially Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama... Eventually it will get into Tennessee, Georgia, and the Appalachians as well!!! If we get this "hybrid" and then what could be Ida, we're going to be looking at some MAJOR flooding problems across the Deep South... Also another possible side effect of this "hyrid" is the possibility of it ventilating what could be Ida... Bottom line, this is going to be a crazy next week so get ready!!! Even if Ida doesn't form we could be looking at a flooding event (Possibly BIG) across the Deep South "IF" we do get this one two punch from the tropics!!! Take it for what it's worth but the HPC is forecasting close to 4" of rain near Starkville with the first "hyrid" storm by Tuesday night... And that's before what may be Ida even gets here!!! Everyone across the Deep South needs to keep a close eye of these two storms!!!




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