Two Cool Weather Shows Coming Up...

Since the weather is so quite right now I thought I would give everyone a heads up on two cool weather shows coming up...

1) When Weather Changed History

- This Sunday October 5th at 9pm ET The Weather Channel is premiering a new season of when weather changed history... This week is on the 1900 Galveston Hurricane... Very fitting considering what just happen in Galveston Island with Hurricane Ike... You can click on the bottom right to watch the preview... As most of you know the 1900 Galveston Hurricane was the deadliest US natural disaster! Some estimates are as high as 10,000 dead! I have a feeling it will be very well made and I look forward to watching it!

2) Storm Chasers

- On October 19th at 10pm ET the Discovery Channel is premiering a new season of Storm Chasers... It's a pretty cool show that follows a few well known Great Plains storm chasers... Last year they focused on TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle) and there adventures trying to penetrate a weak tornado... This year they are also following a storm chaser named Reed Timmer... I have met Reed before and he is a very nice guy! About as crazy as they get when it comes to chasing but I promise he's a nice guy! I just pray his craziness doesn't kill him one day! Anyways it should be very interesting to watch and I'm looking forward to it...

Not Much Going On...

There really isn't a whole lot going on in the world of weather right now...  The NHC does have a slight risk of development in the Gulf and sub-tropical storm Laura is heading out to sea...  Eventually the remnants of Laura will hit Ireland/Great Britain with some rain and wind...  We will have to watch an old stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf but honestly right now the threat of development is very low!  I'll leave you with a link to some amazing/dramatic pictures from Hurricane Ike...  I know the economy is the number one story in the news, which is very understandable, but lets not forget about the people of SE Texas...  It's going to take a long long time to get everything back to normal!!!

Also really quick we started the National Forecast Contest today...  This is my 7th year in the contest and like usual I'm excited to get everything started!  We have a team of 30 which is much larger than most teams we have had in the past...  So far we are off to a great start as almost everyone showed up for the 1st forecast discussion...  I'm VERY pleased with the commitment and I truly feel if we continue to show that same effort and passion everyday no-one can beat us!

Hurricane Ike Pictures

Quick Kyle Update...

Well it looks like the NHC has nailed the track and I give them all the props in the world...  I really thought it would go a little more left then they had it, but Kyle has missed Maine to the right...  It has lost its tropical characteristics however it still has 70mph winds and a pressure of 986mb...  In the end it looks like Kyle is going to be nothing more than a strong Nor Easter for Maine and the Canadian Maritime...   Like a said yesterday the effects shouldn't be that big of a deal...  This area of the US/Canada gets much stronger Nor Easters all the time!

Hurricane Kyle

Kyle is now a hurricane with 75mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 995mb...  It is really moving to the north at 23mph...  I have no problem with NHC's end intensity as I do think it will be either a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane at landfall....  There is still a lot of dry air and wind shear out there preventing Kyle from getting a lot stronger...  Plus it's rapidly moving away from warm ocean water...  My only problem is with the track...  I still feel like it will be left of the NHC's track, just missing Cape Cod by 50 miles or so and then plowing into Maine...  My thinking/reasoning is basically the same as yesterday!  While this isn't the best news for Maine it won't be any worse than a strong Nor Easter...  Honestly a lot of Nor Easters are much stronger!  

Path of Kyle...

Tropical Storm Kyle has sustained winds of 60mph and a central pressure of 1000mb... The movement is towards the north-northwest at 12mph... The NHC has moved the track slightly west from yesterday and I fully expect that trend to continue... There is a lot of dry air and wind shear out there so Kyle is not looking the best right now... In the past I have talked about how stronger hurricanes steering is influenced more by upper level winds... The stronger the storm the higher up you would look for steering... Well in this case we have a weak tropical cyclone on our hands which means it will be steered by lower level winds... The upper level winds would steer Kyle more away from Maine, where the lower level winds would steer Kyle more towards Cape Cod...



While I do expect Kyle to strengthen some I don't really see it getting past a minimal hurricane... There is too much dry air, wind shear, and once we get to Saturday night/Sunday morning it will be moving in much colder ocean water(<26C)... Honestly right now I see Kyle barely missing Cape Cod just to the right and hitting Maine as a strong tropical storm... Because I don't see the ability of Kyle getting near a Cat-3 like the GFDL is showing I feel like the steering currents in the lower levels are just pointing us even more left than the NHC's track... The HWRF is much closer to the intensity in my opinion but I still think it's too far right! The NHC still has Kyle just missing Maine, where I feel like Kyle will come ashore near the Penobscot Bay, Maine... Again I'm still to the left of the NHC's track at this time! Here are what some of the other global models are showing... Personally I'm leaning with the Canadians track!

Joe Goes Off...

This is straight from Joe Bastardi at accuweather! Again I highly recommend the pro site even if you usually disagree with Joe... There are plenty of other blogs, and the model output you have access too is amazing! Personally I think he's right and actually has the guts to stand up for what he believes in... I admire that! However if you don't agree that's 100% OK with me and is why I love this country we live in so much! We need debate in meteorology to make things as scientifically sound and consistent as possible... I think an independent entity to oversea all government and private meteorological agencies would be very beneficial to the accuracy of our science... Politics and personal agenda SHOULD have no place in meteorology!!!

"THURSDAY 10:00 PM TPC THEATRE OF THE ABSURD CONTINUES

Each like each recon gets worse and worse here. I try to calm down, then another comes in that is stronger evidence

I would love to be a fly on the wall at the hurricane center. I wonder if anyone in there is speaking up on this. How does this deepen moving northwest at 32 north. When do you ever see that. It has to be warm core, since it is moving now, with the outflow over it, in a way where it is separate from all its cold core origins. Think about it folks, if its moving northwest where is the baroclinicity. Its not at the center, because its warm core. ITS DOWN TO 991 MB. How can they justify this?

I have been reading blogs saying okay its subtropical. NO NOT ANYMORE. Even the subtropical get named. There is no doubt left. Its actually tightening coming to the coast, as tropical cyclones hitting at 90 degrees do. Its down to 29.25, which can support hurricane in the Saffir Simpson scale.

This will be rated a 2.5 on the impact, and also be counted as a storm overall. Now remember, I am over the forecasted total impact and we only had 13 storms total, so with Kyle named, the actual total I am grading is now 12. Given the idea there should be 3 or 4 more, that is going to mean the number forecast may be better for other people in my book than mine. So its not like this is something I need, though plainly it is the second tropical cyclone hit on the carolina zones.

But where is the guts on anyone in Miami. is there no one there that would say, look at the recon, look at the pics, look at the radar, look at the obs. I cant believe it. How can voices be silenced like this? I hope someone is reading in there. Your duty is to accurately portray the season, and to keep the public informed with accurate, professional, objective assessments. It is not to pretend you have some magic power to decide what is and is not a storm. Wake up There is a 7 degree C rise across the center now I. 12 C / 1511 m J. 19 C / 1525 m K. 12 C / NA Is there no one there that sees this. Is there no one there that says, wait, lets be accurate and right. This is unreal.

This cant be about the weather folks, It is well beyond that,. There is something going on there that cant be weather related and that is plain wrong.

You missed it, admit it. You had nothing yesterday morning and tropical storm with a 991 mb pressure is nailing the Carolinas., You can say anything you want to the public, but it is simply a lie and the data shows it.

And by the way, while I am at it, why are wasting taxpayer money and air force time flying recons into systems that are non tropical 3 hours from landfall? You have no intention of doing the right thing since all doubt was removed with the first recon anyway,. But now its absurd.

You know these arent accusations, they are statements of fact that the weather and data you see clearly show.

What is baffling is this:Is there no one at TPC that will stand for what is right in the face of the facts of this storm vs the long list of storms we have seen/ You have named an open system at 1001 that has no radar presentation ( by the way I agree with you naming it) If you had this forecasted 5 days ago to develop, are you trying to say you would not have it named now?

You want the confidence of the American people and the met community, including me. You want me to follow your words, but why should we when things like this occur, or Humberto, or Charley, or Alex or Cincdy or Katrina with its 12 mph movement listed as 6 at a critical time. its one thing after another. No consistency, and a seeming disdain for anyone who dare use what is now over 30 years of active hurricane forecasting as a basis of knowledge about these things.

I have listed in one fashion after another the arguments. I have shown how this is warm core, should be named, and when stacked against history, do you think that this would not have been called a tropical storm? What next, you going in and stripping storms that you werent around for of their status ( heh that is going on with climate revisionism) If this were 1938, that storm would have been downgraded east of Hatteras

Its not about the weather..its about right and wrong

I must say I am surprised. In 2003, I was very pleased to see how the Houston WS office state without any qualms their assessment of Claudette. I knew the new director came from that office and thought that the politics that was made public in the National Hurricane center assessment report would be ended. i fear not. I have the copy of that report, and it confirms some of the things that I thought about what goes on. But I thought this would be a new day and age ( by the way, the Miami herald did a story on this) I can see by the handling of this system, that is not the case. You can be the judge yourself given what you have seen.

I am absolutely flabbergasted, given all in front of us, that there is denial of what is the truth, and the fact that other mets on the public air waves seem to just march happily along without giving any thought to standing for right or wrong. I just cant do that. I wish I could, but I cant. This is not a run of the mill non tropical coastal low. when have you ever seen a 991 center with an eye causing 60 mph winds moving northwest from off the gulfstream in September that wasnt tropical. You had tropical storm warnings for Cristobal, and rightly so., Are you trying to say this storm is not stronger, better organized and not in the category of Cristobal. or Eduoard...or even Fay, it actually looks better organixed than Fay off Florida.. a tighter eye and just as low pressure.

I do want to remind the reader, that there have been several instances over the years where stands I have taken have been proven right some 6 months later in post storm analysis's, and changed, but of course by then, the memory had faded and the public got a different message at the time, than what I was saying,. even when proven right. ciao for now ***

THURSDAY 8:30 PM

KYLE VS THE STORM WITH NO NAME, ACTUAL RECON DATA

For the record, Karen in Oct. 2001 was a bigger fiasco. The classic with it was as it moved away, after hammering the island with wind gusts over 100 while TPC kept saying it was non-tropical, they upgraded it to a hurricane and advised residents of Bermuda to stay in touch, a tough thing to do since there was no power on the island.

So that rates over the non-naming of this as a denial. But at least they did name it after.

Here is the side by side...

D. 59 kt wind with un-named system D. NA wind with KYLE

E. 211 deg 17 nm distance and direction from center: 17 miles ssw E. NA Kyle NA

F. 334 deg 32 kt/G. 220 deg 68 nm Flight level, not named wind dir, speed, distance F. 346 DEG 38 KT, G. 274 DEG 12 NM Same ob for Kyle

H. 993 mb pressure not named H. EXTRAP 994 MB pressure Kyle

comments unnamed P. AF303 03GGA LOW OB 05 MAX FL WIND 32 KT SW QUAD 22:58:20Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 58 KT NE QUAD 23:31:30Z

comments kyle

P. NOAA2 0911A KYLE OB 07 AL112008 MAX FL WIND 38 KTS SW QUAD 2308Z MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 55 KTS NE QUAD 2328Z VERY POOR RADAR PRESENTATION NO BANDING

Here is my question... How can you possibly name one, and not the other? The unnamed one has stronger flight level and surface winds and a lower pressure and is making landfall on the U.S. coast. Why send a plane there if you aren't going to respond to the data?

You make the call folks, you can see it side by side and decide if this is meteorology or some kind of agenda on the part of TPC. I can come to no other conclusion given the data. Look at the radar... when do you see that in a non-tropical cyclone in September?

Ciao for now."

The Wrong Kyle...

OK I know I'm far from a tropical expert but I'm sorry, the disturbance of the Carolina Coast should be named Kyle and the disturbance north of Hispaniola should be named Laura... I'm honestly in shock why the NHC has not named the system off the eastern seaboard... There was a 3 degree temperature rise across the center and it even has an eye now! Without a doubt those are both clear characteristics of a warm cored system... I understand the NHC still says there is time for it to become tropical in nature but why do you then drop a dropsonde in the quote "eye"... That point was brought up by Joe Bastardi earlier today and honestly it makes a LOT of sense... If it's not tropical then why do you say it has an eye??? Very confusing to me and honestly I think it's just plain wrong... I especially think you will see that it's a tropical cyclone when it makes landfall later tonight. As it's cut off from its heat source (warm ocean water), you will see rapid weakening with this tropical cyclone... Again that is a CLEAR sign it's tropical in nature... Baroclinic systems don't do that!!! Either way the Carolina's are already getting battered with tropical storm force conditions... Expect those conditions to continue through the night and improve greatly tomorrow morning as the no name tropical storm transitions back to an extra tropical system...



Tropical storm Kyle is basically moving north of Hispaniola at 8mph... It will continue to speed up and strengthen as it moves towards the Canadian Maritime... Most of the models show Kyle missing the US entirely except for the Canadian and European which takes Kyle into Maine... We will have to watch that closely as there usually tends to be a right bias with tropical cyclones in the Atlantic... Even if it does strike Maine it should only be a minimal hurricane... Considering some of the powerful Nor Easters Maine gets, I'm not too worried about the possible effects! I'm going to give it another 24-36 hours before I can say for sure where Kyle is heading... Personally I think it's going to either hit Maine or just miss it to the right... Currently I'm a little left of the NHC's track!

Carolina Threat...

The NHC now has a High Risk for development off the Carolina coast... A big change from yesterday night when there wasn't any risk shown... The only question left is whether the NHC will name the system... Honestly it's not going to matter to the citizens of South Carolina/North Carolina... You are still going to see strong tropical storm force conditions whether it is named or whether it's considered a glorified Nor Easter... I have been saying for a couple of days now that I truly believe this is going to be a warm cored system that should be named... Honestly it's already well on its way and should be really close by morning... Again tropical (warm cored/barotropic) cyclones weaken considerable when that make landfall... All the models are showing this which just proves to me that were dealing with a warm cored system... When you take a barotropic or warm cored system away from its heat source (warm water) it dies... This is not the case with a Nor Easter or baroclinic system... Again the citizens are going to see the same conditions either way but I personally believe it should be named Kyle...

You probably are thinking why Kyle, didn't you say the disturbance near Hispaniola should be named Kyle... Well I honestly thought it would be by now but the land interaction with Hispaniola is tearing it apart... Right now it looks really bad and I even wonder if it will get it's act together again... Even if it does it will be interesting to see if the Carolina system gets named first, which would mean the disturbance in the Caribbean would be named Laura... Of course this all depends on whether it can regenerate or if the system off the Carolina's gets named at all... It will be interesting to watch but if you live near Wilmington, NC expect strong tropical storm force conditions (60mph + winds) on Thursday afternoon into Friday morning!!!

Ps...  Today is the 3 year anniversary of Hurricane Rita!!!

One Left, One Right???

I don't know anymore if well will get that one, two punch... Two systems should develop but I don't know if both will strike the US... What i thought would be Kyle already is taking its time to develop a well defined surface circulation.... There is a lot of good convection but land interaction with Hispaniola is keeping the circulation much more broad... As it continues to move north and northwest away from Hispaniola, you should see that circulation at the surface tighten up rather quickly... Honestly though I'm surprised it has taken as long as it has!!!


Also the models have shifted right with what should be Kyle eventually... Most take it out to sea enough to miss the US entirely... The GFDL, NOGAPS, and the GFS takes it towards Cape Cod... Again we are just sitting and waiting on where this system finally develops... Until that happens it's really just a guess on where what should become Kyle will go... There is no doubt however that the trend is to the right...


One thing that looks certain is some sort of development off the east coast in the next 48 hours... The question is does it have enough time to become warm cored, or are we just looking at a glorified Nor Easter? Personally I think it will be warm cored because the models show it weakening quickly as it makes landfall... Baroclinic systems don't weaken that quickly over land like a Barotropic system would... So personally I think it's going to be a warm cored system that will hit the South Carolina/North Carolina border with strong tropical storm conditions on Thursday night/Friday morning... Whether it's named or not will be interesting to watch... I'll update again tomorrow when we know more, but again right now all we can do is wait and see what happens!!! This is the frustrating part of forecasting!

One Two Punch???

I was going to write a detailed tropical discussion on Kyle but things are becoming more complex! Yesterday it looked to me that what will become Kyle would merge it's energy with a stalled out front off the eastern seaboard... However today it's looking more and more that two separate systems are imminent... The area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico has still yet to be named Kyle... Hurricane hunters have flown into that area today and said there is a broad center of circulation... I feel confident as it moves north and northwest away from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola it will tighten that center of circulation and become Tropical Storm Kyle fairly quickly... The GFDL and HWRF both show Kyle moving north and northwest into the coast of New Jersey... While I was leaning towards North Carolina yesterday, because the energy associated with the stalled frontal boundary does not look like it will merge with Kyle, this scenario is not only possible but likely... Even with a minimal hurricane this could be big problem for Long Island... A LOT of water would funnel into that area due to the the shape of the coastline!




The stalled out frontal boundary is another problem in itself... You will start to see a transition as the shear continues to relax from a cold cored system to a warm cored system over the next couple of days... It should have enough time over water to become warm cored and head into South Carolina/North Carolina on Thursday night... The European and Canadian shows this and other models are starting to jump on board as well... It's funny because usually in these situations energy will bundle together to form one big storm... However in this situation it really looks like we will have a one two punch which is actually pretty darn rare to see... You usually don't see two tropical cyclones hitting the east coast less than 3 days apart... It has happened before, but again this is a very rare and interesting weather situation... I will go in more depth later, but first I want to watch everything start to go in motion... I'll post again tomorrow when we have a better idea on things... This is going to be VERY interesting to watch!

Soon to be Kyle...

I would imagine that Kyle will form very soon near Puerto Rico and head towards the north and northwest over the next few days...  From there things get very interesting!  Kyle will either turn hard into the Mid-Atlantic, ride along the east coast, or move out to sea...  It's still too far out to say for sure but like usual I'm going to lean more left...  I feel like Kyle will hit North Carolina at this time...  Again it's still too far out to say for sure but that's what my gut is telling me at this time...  I'll have a more detailed tropical outlook tomorrow afternoon/night...

Before I go I wanted to link a great blog post by Jeff Masters...  His blogs on tropical weather are very good and I highly recommend everyone to read them!  He has a PHD from Michigan and flew with the NOAA hurricane hunters from 1986-1990...  In this post he talks about the destruction of Gilchrist, TX and has some interesting thoughts/insight on the city and Hurricane Ike!

Gilchrist, TX 

Relaxing Football Weekend...

I'm at my good friends house right now in Anniston, Al... It's always great to just hang out with your friends and enjoy a weekend of football... As a die hard Oakland Raiders fan I going to have to find a place tomorrow to watch the game... If I can't find a place that will show the game, I'm going to leave early to head back to Starkville and watch the Raiders on Direct TV... Without NFL Sunday ticket I would be very lost!!! Anyways I really don't have much to post about the weather except for a few interesting articles I read today on Hurricane Ike and Galveston Island... Enjoy and GO RAIDERS!!!

Galveston Opens Briefly
Lone Home Survives
Hurricane Ike's Missing

I hope this turns out to be WRONG!!!

I came across this today and honestly it just makes me sick to think about... Unfortunately I think a lot more people are dead in Galveston then the media is saying right now... Joe Bastardi from accuweather wrote this earilier today and I have to say that I think he is right... I sure hope not, but it's probably whats going on!!! If you would like to read more of Joe Bastardi's blog I highly recommend signing up for the accuweather pro site... The site has a lot to offer besides Joe's blog... No mater what people think about him I'll I can say is his long range forecasting abilities is second to NO ONE in my opinion...


WHERE ARE THEY? (The "survivors" of Ike)

I talked to someone that was in Galveston yesterday and the scene is grim. I can't imagine what it is like farther east. I think that once again, the fact that two nights before people went to bed not thinking anything was going to happen, then woke up Thursday to find this was coming, probably took alot of people off guard. But the big problem was the category here. People heard 2, not 4, as in Rita, and the result was different. The new impact scale I am working on which is track and intensity weighted together will take care of that. It will give a forecast value for a site against the worst possible, and the worst that has ever occurred. Certainly if someone had heard this would be 75 percent of the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 as far as the weather went, it would have raised more eyebrows than calling it a Cat 2.

This is why the NWS Houston office, which I think like BRO in Dolly, did a great job on the local level, was NOT OVERDONE with their dire warnings of what would happen.

The question is, though, in talking to my contact in Galveston, where are all the people that they have not yet found? If houses are destroyed and people were there, where are they?

The coming weeks and months will hopefully answer the question with the answer "safe and sound." I fear though that the waters of Galveston Bay and nearshore waters will be telling other stories. This is one forecast let's all hope that I am wrong on.

The next target for tropical trouble is the East Coast, though the way it comes about is debatable. The big high over the northwestern Atlantic next week now has the models seeing the development I am expecting, but an added tidbit is the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean as pressures have fallen in there. This may come northwest. Moral is, stay tuned.

For now, ciao. ****

Hurricane Ike Early Statistics...

I'm going to list some early statistics from Hurricane Ike...  It's not official but damage estimates on Hurricane Ike are now near 27 billion...  This will make Ike the 3rd costliest US hurricane behind Katrina in 2005 (81 billion) and Andrew in 1992 (41 billion)...  I will say that doesn't take into account past hurricanes readjusted to 2008 dollars...    

Hurricane Ike made landfall on Galveston Island on Septermber 13th at 2:10am CDT as a Category - 2 with winds of 110mph and a central pressure of 952mb...  This track was VERY similar to the Great 1900 Galveston hurricane...  Of course the 1900 hurricane was a stronger and smaller 145mph Category 4 with a central pressure of 936mb...  However you have to consider that the seawall didn't exist back in 1900...  At the time the highest part of the island was only 9 feet and a surge of 15-20 feet killed at least 6,000 people with numbers closer to 10,000 more likely...  This lead to the construction of a 17 foot seawall in 1902 that was finished in 1911...  Four years later Galveston was tested by the 1915 hurricane which was a 135mph Category - 4 with a central pressure of 940mb...  Thankfully the 17 foot seawall held up to the 16 foot storm surge...  Point being that without the seawall I wonder if Galveston would exist!  When it's all said and done Hurricane Ike's surge will be similar to both the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 and the Galveston 1915 Hurricane...

Storm Surge Estimates:

Galveston (St. Luis Hotel):  19 feet

Galveston (West End):  18 feet

Sabine Pass (Texas/Louisiana Border):  14.5 feet

Crystal Beach (Goat Island):  14 feet

Lake Charles:  11 feet

Wind Speed Estimates:

W. Park/Hillcrest Houston, TX:  112 mph

Galveston Beach:  104 mph

Anahuac, TX:  102 mph

Sea Rim Park:  99 mph

Sabine Pass:  95 mph

Hobby Airport:  92 mph

On a side note I have read many chaser accounts on stormtrack.org which claim wind gusts near 125 mph on Galveston Island...  Granted I was on the 3rd floor of a parking deck, but I would agree with those estimates 100%

AMAZING BEFORE AND AFTER

Hurricane Intensity Scale...

For years I have always thought the Saffir-Simpson scale needs an overhaul!!! The scale ranks hurricanes by wind speed!!! This is not to say it doesn't try to equate for other things like surge and damage, but the actual scale ranks the hurricane by wind speed... Just look at Hurricane Ike which went down as a strong Cat-2... A Cat-2 is listed as 96-110mph winds... It suggest that the surge should be 6-8 feet... So there lies a HUGE problem in my opinion... With Ike the NHC was calling for surges above 20 feet.. That is actually according to Saffir-Simpson scale in the Cat-5 range which states:

Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

So to me since hurricanes are only ranked by wind speed we are misleading the public big time in my opinion... I give all the credit in the world to the NWS and the NHC for conveying the seriousness with Ike and the surge... The problem is the general public doesn't usually hear that seriousness and all they latch on to is the actual category... A 20 foot surge doesn't mean a whole lot when you say Ike is a Cat-2... I have talked to hundreds and hundreds of people over the years during hurricane chases and overwhelmingly the common theme is if the hurricane doesn't get to at least a Category-3 WERE NOT LEAVING... So to me it's long overdue especially when you look at a storm like Katrina... It went down as a Cat-3 but let's be real here, did that damage/impact look like a Cat-3 to you??? I was 5 miles inland in Gulfport, MS during Katrina and the surge made its way very close to us!!! I mean the 30 foot surge is off the charts in recorded US landfalling hurricanes! In my eyes Hurricane Katrina will always be a Cat-5 because that's what the people felt/experienced!!! CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE!!!

I don't know exactly how I'm going to go about this, and I also don't know all the exact details at this time, but it's long overdue for a new and improve hurricane scale... A scale that will incorporate all the deadly factors involved in a hurricane, not just wind speed... I mean every since I was a little kid and I could understand hurricanes, everyone always said the water is what kills you, not the wind... There is no doubt that it is true, so then why is the Saffir-Simpson scale rank hurricanes only by the wind speed???

Storm surge has to be taken into account! Also the size and duration of the storm has to be taken into account! If you have a 110mph Cat-2 the size of Texas moving 10mph, the damage is going to be worse and also extended much further out then lets say a 135mph Cat-4 the size of Arkansas moving at 20mph... Is the Cat-4 in this case really the stronger storm? I mean it may be for a very small area but when you look at the big picture it's not going to have near the affect as the huge slow moving strong Cat-2... I propose a scale that takes all of that into account...

I'm going to try my best over the next week or so to construct this scale... I want it to be as scientifically sounds as possible but at the same time easy for the general public to understand... I'm going to rank the winds, the surge, the size/speed, and maybe a few other important factors... After I fine tune this scale I'm going to go back and reclassify every hurricane I have ever chased... It will be interesting to be to see how my rankings compare to what history has it ranked... I have a feeling that Katrina will be at the top, while a small and extremely powerful hurricane like Charley may be a few notches down... Just some food for thought right now! First thing first, I have to construct the scale!!!

Before I go I just want to say something really quick with Hurricane Ike... It looks now that Ike will go down as the 3rd costliest hurricane of all time behind Hurricane Katrina and Andrew at 22 billion dollars... INCREDIBLE for only a Category-2!!! Also NOAA has posted some amazing imagery of the Texas and Louisiana coast after Ike... Check it out if you want to see some unbelievable images!!!

NOAA IMAGES

WHERE WE WERE

Galveston Island and Hurricane Ike...

Early on Wednesday September 10th I started to notice a northward trend with Ike… By the afternoon I had a bad feeling that Galveston Island was in trouble…. After posting in my blog I talked to Jared Allen and Michael Haynes about leaving that night around 8pm for Galveston Island, TX… We packed all our supplies and food and left Starkville, MS at 8:03pm… Driving non-stop all night (650miles) we arrived at Galveston around dawn… A little over 5 years ago I went to Galveston with one of my good friends named Chris Bell... I remember we did all the tourist stuff like going to the hurricane museum, eating at fishtails(across from the flagship hotel), and exploring the seawall... For some weird reason I told Chris I'm going to come back one day to chase a hurricane here... It's weird how things in life come around full circle but 5 years later I was back in Galveston sitting and waiting for Hurricane Ike to strike...

By the stroke of luck we decided to go to a Holiday Inn on 18th and Seawall... Honestly thinking there is probably no way they would let us stay at the hotel we decided to at least give it a try and talk to them about the situation... I first talked to a man named Sam... He was a former military service man that served in Vietnam and helped build the hotel 3 years ago... I told him why we were here and what was about to happen with Ike... We was very nice to us and actually called the general manager on our behalf asking if we could stay and ride it out with them... Another very nice man named Abe talked to us about the situation and was very supportive as well... Abe was one of the main managers there and was nothing but nice to us... A few hours later the general manager (Eric) showed up and talked to us about our options... He said he had no problem with us staying there as long as we stay out of there way, give some them some weather updates on Ike, and sign a liability waiver for them... We gladly agreed and thanked everyone for their hospitality and kindness... On a side note I truly from the bottom of my heart want to thank everyone at the Holiday Inn on Seawall and 18th, especially Abe and Sam... Without them this chase would have been very difficult at the very least!!! It always amazes me how peoples generosity and kindness comes out when things get bad... We are very lucky to have run into people like them!

We each got our own rooms (406,407,408) free of charge... Again very very nice of the Holiday Inn!!! Jared, Michael, and I were all exhausted but because of the anticipation of the event we really weren't able to sleep much... I just looked at weather data which only verified in my mind that we were in the right spot... Everyone else at the Holiday Inn was very busy trying to protect the building... Around the island people didn't really seem that concerned about Hurricane Ike... I can't tell you how many times I had people tell me that it's just a Category-2 and how hurricanes always miss Galveston, just look at Rita... I tired my absolute best to convey the seriousness of the situation but I don't think it was getting through to most of the people staying on the island... I keep saying Galveston has been hit before, remember 1900??? Throughout the afternoon I had a lot of phone calls and text messages with mixed opinions... I would say half of my friends were OK with it and knew I would be very smart about this chase... The other half of my friends and family seemed very concerned and was basically telling me I was crazy to stay there... While I respectfully told them that I was staying, I still want to thank all of them for their concerns... That night the Holiday Inn feed us and after eating I went back to my room to read this:

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY…15 TO 22 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS…AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES…WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED…SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE…WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES…INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

When I read that discussion out of Houston it really took me back to Hurricane Katrina in 2005... I immediately had a bad feeling that if we didn't leave the Holiday Inn during the landfall of Ike they might find us dead inside this building tomorrow... I talk to Jared and Michael and voiced my concerns with the storm surge and wave action... I knew the building would make it through the winds but I seriously doubted it would make it through the surge and waves bashing against it... Katrina was a clear warning to me that you DON'T mess with the ocean!!! You won't win and I promise you will die!!! We actually went on top of the roof and talked some more about the situation... After many long conversations we decided to wake up at 7am to reevaluate the situation... As long as we could find a strong parking garage to get my car into, and also as long as Ike didn't explode over night we decided as a group we would stay and ride it out... I'll be the first to say that this night was the first time since Katrina that I had any fear with a storm chase... I knew that if we made a mistake it would cost us our lives!!!


After about 5 hours of sleep and a grand total of 6 hours sleep going on 3 days I woke up at 7am... We noticed that Ike had only ramped up to 105mph and decided that we needed to find a parking garage right now! We left the Holiday Inn and found a solid fort on the UT medical branch campus which was located on the back bay on the eastern part of Galveston Island... This parking deck was 5 stories tall and I knew right then and there that we would be safe during Hurricane Ike... No matter how high the surge was going to be I knew we were going to be safe, because we were about a mile away from the Gulf and the wave action that would be coming from it that night! I decided to call it Fort Galveston!!!




We parked the car on the third floor and decided to walk back to the hotel... As we were walking back along Seawall BLVD I was amazed at the Gulf... Huge waves were breaking into the seawall and shooting 20+ feet at times into the air... I have never seen the ocean so pissed off that close... Also I was shocked at how many people were out checking out the waves... I really never saw any feelings of fear or urgency with Ike even less then 18 hours from landfall... We we made it back to the hotel and I tried my absolute best to convince Sam, Abe, and others to come with us later to our fort! Unfortunately no mater what I said they were going to stay put and ride it out! I was very worried that when we came back the next day the hotel would be gone, and most if not all of the people(including children) would be dead... At the very least we convinced them to move their cars to Fort Galveston! We got most everyone together and heading towards the parking garage in a Holiday Inn van... After we dropped off the cars and headed back to the hotel I think for the first time everyone staying at the hotel started to realize the seriousness of the event... They looked out the windows in amazement as wave after wave crashed into the seawall... Reality was starting to sink in!!!



After talking to a few people and posting one more blog we decided to leave the hotel for Fort Galveston around 3pm... There was a curfew in effect at 8pm which threaten people outside being arrested and/or facing fines up to 2,000 dollars... Needless to say we didn't want any of that! Jared, Michael and I packed our gear up and tried to convince everyone one last time to come with us... I could tell we finally were making them uneasy with staying but no one left to come with us... As we walked towards our fort the winds were approaching tropical storm force... Again there was still a lot of people and media on Seawall BLVD playing with the huge waves crashing into the seawall... It almost felt very surreal as we walked towards the Fort... Sort of like we were on some sort of military mission trying to get to base... There were multiple black hawks helicopters circling the island which was the first time in my life chasing I saw that! Again it was just a surreal situation!




When we got to our fort one of the first things I started to notice was a thick black smoke coming from the marina... A dry boat dock was on fire and we stood and watched 30 to 40 foot tall balls of fire coming out of the building... I passed along the information through twitter as the fire just got worse and worse... The police and fireman couldn't do anything about it, and at that moment you knew that everyone on the island was on their own... It was marshal law and like the wild west it was every man/woman for themselves!!! By the way that fire burned until the eye of Ike made landfall...

At around dark the winds started to gust to hurricane strength... By about 9pm the winds were sustained at hurricane strength... Even though things were deteriorating fast I was still able to use my iphone... I HIGHLY recommend this phone to anyone as it was a life saver during Ike... Justyn Jackson gave us repeated updates on the hurricane which was very helpful during this dangerous storm... Like always Justyn was clutch and showed you why he's LDCT... Thanks for the help buddy! As the eye came closer and closer you could start to see Ike contracting and strengthening... You could see meso-voriticies on radar which is a clear sign of a major hurricane! The NHC decided to leave the hurricane at a 110mph Category 2 which is only 1mph short of a Category 3... This was my 11th hurricane chase and I'll I can say with my experiences is it sure didn't feel like a Cat-2 to me... As the northern eyewall came ashore around Midnight the winds were gusting to near 125mph... Near that time you could see storm surge coming out of the bay and heading towards us from the east and north... While it was only 3-4 feet tall at the highest point you could still see this wall of water slowly make its way up the street... It was a very crazy experience and only makes me wonder what it would have been like if the surge really would have been 25 feet!!! At around 1:30am the eye started to push over us... Now you couldn't see any stars or anything like that but between 2-3am the winds were dead calm... It's always an amazing experience to be in the eye of a hurricane... Of course I wish it could have been daytime but beggars can't be choosers in storm chasing...




The eye lasted over 2 hours and around 3:30am the southern eyewall starting to come ashore... I was forced to move my car to the opposite side of the parking lot as the winds switched out of the west... While I don't think the top wind gust were quite as high in the southern eyewall, there was no doubt it is was much stronger because of the constant battering... The southern eyewall was very similar to Katrina in duration and relentlessness... Which says a lot when you compare anything to Katrina! At around 4:30am the winds were pounding the fort so hard that it began to bounce up and down... It felt like someone was next to you on a trampoline as the car bounced up and down until near daybreak... We stayed in the parking garage until near 10-11am... Even then the winds were gusting to tropical storm force... At first when we ventured out I was impressed how the buildings held up... Of course there were windows blown out, trees down, and roofs gone but overall it wasn't that bad! Unfortunately the closer we got to the Holiday Inn on 18th and Seawall, the quicker we realized that the damage was very bad!!!




A huge section of the hotels roof was gone, windows were smashed, and the metal gate to get into the parking lot was blown away... You could tell that this hotel went through pure hell!!! Almost immediately after getting there I saw Sam and Abe walking around... You could tell they were very scared and kept saying that they wish they got our phone numbers before we left... They described the roof ripping off and water rushing down the hotel walls as they fled for the staircase... They also kept saying how thankful they were that the surge didn't get them... I think they knew at that point that if Ike would have gone about 40 miles west the hotel would have been lost to the Gulf... I'm so thankful that didn't happen!!!




After checking out the damage to the hotel, Abe, Michael, and myself decided to walk west along Seawall BLVD... Needless to say, the damage was horrible!!! Huge chunks of the seawall were ripped apart and thrown on the street... Gigantic boulders were tossed like toys all along the road... The hooters restaurant was gone! Many piers and businesses were gone! Many tourist stops were gone! The Flagship hotel was hanging on by a thread!!! And For about a 5 block area the damage was comparable to Katrina!




Unfortunately I did see some looters... They weren't taking much, and what they did take wasn't worth much, however it really made me sick to see these people loot!!! Especially watching moms and dads helping their kids loot! Man that makes me mad... The good news is the cops came in quickly after that and put a stop to the looting really quick... I wouldn't mess with a Texas cop!!!



At one point Abe and I climbed up on the debris to get a better view... The view was incredible and it really gave you some perspective on how bad this area got hit! Even Fishtails were Chris and I ate 5 years ago was heavily damaged... There was all sort of mangled stuff in the debris pile... After taking a few pictures a news crew climbed up there with us and asked if they could interview Abe since we was from Galveston and was the manager at the Holiday Inn... You could really see that the damage was getting to Abe and I really felt bad for him!!! I think he realized that lot of the places he hung out at for years were gone forever... Of course you would hope they will rebuild, but when you live in an area that is destroyed by a natural disaster those thoughts really don't comfort you in the short term... I have noticed over the years that when it finally hits you, it hits you like a ton of bricks!!!



We stayed at the hotel Saturday and Saturday night with the hope of getting off the island Sunday morning... Even though we were blessed to get to stay at the hotel the conditions were going down quick... Because of the roof ripping off water had flooded throughout the hotel... A strong smell of mildew started to develop quickly!!!! I have to say that I have never felt more dirty in my life and also I have never taken so many mosquito bites in my life, but hey that's part of hurricane chasing... I got about 7 hours sleep and headed towards the causeway around 9am... Too be honest, it's a miracle we made it off... The bay side of the island was annihilated... Probably around a 100 boats were thrown all over the road, piled very high on the south bound lane into Galveston! And were not taking bass boasts here, were talking about some large yachts and commercial fishing boats!!! As we were trying to get out a HUGE convoy of military and medical vehicles were heading south towards Galveston on the north bound lane... That was only the second time I have seen that(Katrina) on a major roadway... I think we just timed it perfectly and honestly just got plain lucky... We easily could still be there today if any cops wanted to stop us! It really is chaos in those situations... Timing and luck is everything when it comes to storm chasing!!!




While hurricane Ike was not the worst case scenario for Galveston Island it still was very bad!!! Out of my 11 hurricanes I have chased I would rank Ike 3rd behind Charley and Katrina... Rita was very close, but being on a barrier island like Galveston really brought you much closer to the water than I have ever before... There is no doubt in my mind that as far as a chasing standpoint, this was the most hardcore I have ever gone with a hurricane... Actually probably the most hardcore I have ever gone period!!! I feel very confident that I could have survived a Category 5 hurricane in Fort Galveston but I think we would have been stuck on the island for weeks... Shoot if Ike would have been 40 miles west, Galveston would have looked like Gulfport in Katrina and I seriously doubt we would have been going anywhere for weeks and weeks... I'm just very thankful the eye went directly over our heads... Historically that is extremely rare and hasn't happening in Galveston since 1915... Also thank god for the seawall... While it can't stop a surge of 20+ feet, it did its job in Ike... Without it, even in this situation, the island would have been lost to Ike... I hate to say it but the tragedy of 1900 has saved Galveston at least 4 times from certain destruction... The 1915 hurricane, Carla in 1961, Alicia in 1983, and now Hurricane Ike... Without the 1900 tragedy I doubt Galveston would have ever built a seawall... Eventually it would have happened but the bottom line is the ghosts of the great Galveston 1900 hurricane continue to save their island from another tragedy!!! I just hope and pray Galveston continues to stay lucky, because it would be horrible to lose such a historic American city!!! If you are fascinated by weather and especially hurricanes I highly recommend everyone in their lives to visit Galveston Island at least once!!! I know I'll be back someday soon!!!




All photos are copyright of Greg Nordstrom

Weather Brains...

Earlier this evening I had the great opportunity and honor to cut a Weather Brains segment with James Spann, JB Elliot, Brian Peters, and another nice man from Dallas, Texas...  It was great to talk to them and I really did enjoy it!  James, JB, and Brian are all great guys and have always been so nice to me and Mississippi State...  I can't thank them enough for the opportunity to talk to them about Ike and also for years of kindness toward Mississippi State!!!  If you would like to listen to the podcast you can get it on itunes for free...  Also you can go to:

http://www.alabamawx.com/  (should be in the upper left corner)

http://weatherbrains.com/weatherbrains/  (should have the new episode up tomorrow)

I Promise I'll have a chase summary on Hurricane Ike up tomorrow...  For now though you can listen to some of my thoughts on Weather Brains...

Delay....

I just wanted to let everyone know that I'm a little behind on things today... Obviously because of the hurricane it may take me all day to get caught up on things... Hopefully by tonight I'll have enough time to write a chase summary on Hurricane Ike... I don't want to rush through it so I might have to postpone it until tomorrow... Whether it's late tonight or tomorrow I'm going to do a very detailed write up on a truly historic storm! I just want to take my time and do it right... Tonight I'm actually going to record a podcast for Weather Brains... I don't know all the details behind the show, but it's done by James Spann and abc 33/40 in Birmingham, AL... I believe it's a weekly 30 minute podcast for people that just enjoy the weather... Once I find out when it's on I'll pass along the information...

Made it!!!

I just got back from not only a truly historic hurricane chase but probably the most draining storm chase of my life!  I feel so blessed to have made it home and I also feel like we were so lucky in many ways...  I would also like to personally thank the Holiday Inn on Seawall and 18th...  They were so gracious to us and without them this chase may not have been possible...  I would especially like to thank Abe and Sam because at the VERY LEAST their kindness made things a lot more smooth for us...  It always amazes me to see how kind and thoughtful people can be during the worst of times....  I still continue to pray for the people of Galveston and SE Texas...  While it was not the catastrophic blow it could have been, it still was the second worse damage I have ever seen with my own eyes...  When you see chucks of the seawall the size of vehicles ripped and thrown across the street it gives you a true appreciation for the power of water!  Hurricanes are truly amazing and yet at the same time so relentless and unforgiving...  The power of a hurricane is unmatched in my eyes!!!  I'll have a full detailed account of Hurricane Ike and Galveston Island tomorrow!!!  Right now though I'm off to bed...

Ps...  Sorry i wasn't updating on LDCT twitter account...  Apparently I was updating on my GregNordstrom twitter account instead...  Too tired/distracted to realize...  Sorry about that!!!!

Staying Put!!!

We are staying in GALVESTON!!! I'll update when I get back but were going to first help some people at the Holiday Inn move their cars to a safer location... My thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Galveston and SE Texas.... BE SAFE!!!

11:50am UPDATE: We are currently sitting about 100 yards from the Gulf of Mexico at a Holiday Inn... This is our home base of operations but is not where we are going to ride out the storm... We have found an extremely strong 4 story tall parking deck near the hospital and university... At around 6pm or so we are going to walk to this place of safety... Already the waves are pounding the sea wall shooting 20 feet + in the sky... I would say we have another 5 or 6 feet before the sea wall over tops... Before it gets to the point of no return we will be safe and sound in our fort! I fully understand the severity of this storm and I feel like I have been more cautious with this storm than any before including Katrina... I just hope Galveston can make it through this storm!!! It's such a historical part of America that it would be really sad to see it get destroyed... As I watch the huge waves crash along the shore I can't help to think what Isac Cline and others thought back in 1900... I know it was a far worse storm but I can't even imagine what it was like without the sea wall... It's probably not going to save Galveston but I promise you it helps a lot... I'll try to check in one more time before we leave for Fort Galveston!!! I'll be updating on my LDCT twitter account tonight!