Hanna right now looks VERY ragged... It has been getting destroyed by up to 50 knots of shear... Anything over 20 knots is not good for tropical systems... Usually you want less than 10 knots to really see a tropical system explode... With 40-50 knots it's honestly amazing to me that Hanna has been able to keep itself alive... To me this shows a lot about this storm and once the condition become more favorable I fully expect Hanna to explode... The environment looks near perfect for intensification on Thursday into Friday... We saw with Gustav how fast a storm can explode so again if I lived in South Carolina all the way to Wilmington, NC I would be a little worried...
The more east it goes the more time over water it will have and the stronger Hanna will be... I think it will be a little right of the NHC's track and I honestly think it can get to a Cat-3 before landfall... Even if it doesn't it will be a strengthening storm so every knot of wind will be making it down to the surface... The maximum potential shows that the ocean water can sustain up to a Cat-4/5 with 920-930mb... Obviously it doesn't have the time to do that, but it shows you the potential for rapid intensification once the shear relaxes... At this time I think Hanna will make landfall between Charleston, SC and Wilmington, NC as a 115mph Cat-3... Again the more east it goes the better shot it has at being a major hurricane... Hanna could get nasty!!!
Ike is looking pretty good right now as it continues to head towards the west... The big question with Ike is does it turn north towards the southeast US, or does it keep west into Florida and the Gulf... A big part of that answer may lie with Hanna... If Hanna can help create enough of a weakness in the ridge then most likely Ike will follow behind and turn north towards North Carolina... However if Hanna doesn't put enough of a weakness in the ridge then Ike will continue west into Florida and possibly the Gulf of Mexico... This is a really tough forecast right now so I'm going to hold off a little on Ike... I have no doubt this will be a powerful and dangerous storm but it's just really hard right now to pinpoint a track... I do think it will turn but I think it will get into Florida before it makes that turn north... Let's watch what Hanna does first and then we will have a better idea on Ike's track... I'm really just guessing at this point!!!
Josephine is still WAY too far out to really have any idea on where it's going to track... Right now I'm leaning towards Josephine heading out to sea... However again it's still Way too far out to know for sure.. I'm actually much more impressed with that monster of a wave coming off Africa right now... That's VERY impressive!!! The wave train is going strong right now but things look to be calming down after what could be Kyle gets into the eastern Atlantic... The upswing of the MJO is starting to move out with the next upswing expected to come in October... Remember these pulses of rising motions travel across the globe just like weather systems travel across the globe... This doesn't mean you can't get any tropical systems during a downswing, but it's far less likely one will develop...
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