I came across this today and honestly it just makes me sick to think about... Unfortunately I think a lot more people are dead in Galveston then the media is saying right now... Joe Bastardi from accuweather wrote this earilier today and I have to say that I think he is right... I sure hope not, but it's probably whats going on!!! If you would like to read more of Joe Bastardi's blog I highly recommend signing up for the accuweather pro site... The site has a lot to offer besides Joe's blog... No mater what people think about him I'll I can say is his long range forecasting abilities is second to NO ONE in my opinion...
WHERE ARE THEY? (The "survivors" of Ike)
I talked to someone that was in Galveston yesterday and the scene is grim. I can't imagine what it is like farther east. I think that once again, the fact that two nights before people went to bed not thinking anything was going to happen, then woke up Thursday to find this was coming, probably took alot of people off guard. But the big problem was the category here. People heard 2, not 4, as in Rita, and the result was different. The new impact scale I am working on which is track and intensity weighted together will take care of that. It will give a forecast value for a site against the worst possible, and the worst that has ever occurred. Certainly if someone had heard this would be 75 percent of the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 as far as the weather went, it would have raised more eyebrows than calling it a Cat 2.
This is why the NWS Houston office, which I think like BRO in Dolly, did a great job on the local level, was NOT OVERDONE with their dire warnings of what would happen.
The question is, though, in talking to my contact in Galveston, where are all the people that they have not yet found? If houses are destroyed and people were there, where are they?
The coming weeks and months will hopefully answer the question with the answer "safe and sound." I fear though that the waters of Galveston Bay and nearshore waters will be telling other stories. This is one forecast let's all hope that I am wrong on.
The next target for tropical trouble is the East Coast, though the way it comes about is debatable. The big high over the northwestern Atlantic next week now has the models seeing the development I am expecting, but an added tidbit is the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean as pressures have fallen in there. This may come northwest. Moral is, stay tuned.
For now, ciao. ****
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