I don't know anymore if well will get that one, two punch... Two systems should develop but I don't know if both will strike the US... What i thought would be Kyle already is taking its time to develop a well defined surface circulation.... There is a lot of good convection but land interaction with Hispaniola is keeping the circulation much more broad... As it continues to move north and northwest away from Hispaniola, you should see that circulation at the surface tighten up rather quickly... Honestly though I'm surprised it has taken as long as it has!!!
Also the models have shifted right with what should be Kyle eventually... Most take it out to sea enough to miss the US entirely... The GFDL, NOGAPS, and the GFS takes it towards Cape Cod... Again we are just sitting and waiting on where this system finally develops... Until that happens it's really just a guess on where what should become Kyle will go... There is no doubt however that the trend is to the right...
One thing that looks certain is some sort of development off the east coast in the next 48 hours... The question is does it have enough time to become warm cored, or are we just looking at a glorified Nor Easter? Personally I think it will be warm cored because the models show it weakening quickly as it makes landfall... Baroclinic systems don't weaken that quickly over land like a Barotropic system would... So personally I think it's going to be a warm cored system that will hit the South Carolina/North Carolina border with strong tropical storm conditions on Thursday night/Friday morning... Whether it's named or not will be interesting to watch... I'll update again tomorrow when we know more, but again right now all we can do is wait and see what happens!!! This is the frustrating part of forecasting!
No comments:
Post a Comment