Tropical Storm Kyle has sustained winds of 60mph and a central pressure of 1000mb... The movement is towards the north-northwest at 12mph... The NHC has moved the track slightly west from yesterday and I fully expect that trend to continue... There is a lot of dry air and wind shear out there so Kyle is not looking the best right now... In the past I have talked about how stronger hurricanes steering is influenced more by upper level winds... The stronger the storm the higher up you would look for steering... Well in this case we have a weak tropical cyclone on our hands which means it will be steered by lower level winds... The upper level winds would steer Kyle more away from Maine, where the lower level winds would steer Kyle more towards Cape Cod...
While I do expect Kyle to strengthen some I don't really see it getting past a minimal hurricane... There is too much dry air, wind shear, and once we get to Saturday night/Sunday morning it will be moving in much colder ocean water(<26C)... Honestly right now I see Kyle barely missing Cape Cod just to the right and hitting Maine as a strong tropical storm... Because I don't see the ability of Kyle getting near a Cat-3 like the GFDL is showing I feel like the steering currents in the lower levels are just pointing us even more left than the NHC's track... The HWRF is much closer to the intensity in my opinion but I still think it's too far right! The NHC still has Kyle just missing Maine, where I feel like Kyle will come ashore near the Penobscot Bay, Maine... Again I'm still to the left of the NHC's track at this time! Here are what some of the other global models are showing... Personally I'm leaning with the Canadians track!
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