Well finally the tropics are becoming active and there is no doubt a landfalling threat to the US exist... Of course without the a low-level circulation developing yet the models really can't have a true handle on what is going to happen... It's very hard to predict the future but at the same time you can use teleconnections to help predict the pattern... And that's KEY in predicting the future! If we can get a handle on the pattern, we can get a handle on the a long range forecast! I'm going to use what I have learned over the years to make the best long range forecast I can! Some people say this is impossible this far out, but I say nonsense! Would I go on TV and start warning the public tonight? Of course not, but at least I feel I'll have a better handle on the pattern which is without a doubt going to play a HUGE factor in an accurate forecast!
The NHC shows 4 areas to worry about... The one in the northeast Gulf should slide NE and I honestly don't see much coming out of that... If anything it may ventilate the other low risk area as it moves into the central Gulf... I would definitely watch this area for some homegrown development... I don't see anything big at this time but it should be watched closely!
What was TD 2 has been getting blasted with dry air since the beginning... Today some convection has flared back up and it's starting to look a little better... It has a huge envelope of energy associated with it so I definitely don't think it's done with by any means! Usually when you have a large envelope of energy like you see with TD2 it's much more likely to survive and eventually develop! Some of the models are showing this as well... Like Joe Bastardi said, If anything TD2 is the pulling guard for what will be the tailback and eventually a big problem in invest 90L... TD2 has taken on the SAL and if anything has moisted up the enivonment for invest 90L... So in the end even if TD2 doesn't develop it will still play a big factor in helping 90L develop into the monster I think it can become!
TD 2 is not only been getting beaten with dry air it's also getting sheared to the north... This should relax over the next few days which should aid in possible development... Also the dry air should let up as well... Again I would still watch this one closely for development and a possible impact to the southeast US...
Invest 90L is the problem and is what I think is the main threat to the US about 9 days out... Also it could be a double strike if the GFS turns out to be right (Florida/Gulf) but I'll show you here in a second why I think the GFS is too far left... Also I'll show you why I think the european is too far right (Newfoundland)... This is the complete opposite of what these models usually show... The european is typically the superior model and also typically the GFS is the model with a huge bias right... The GFS has a big problem with heat and likes to break down the ridge way too fast... Not just dealing with the tropics either, this is a common error you see with the GFS all year round... Also one other thing to PLEASE keep in mind... The NHC's models like the hwrf and gfdl is based off GFS model input... So be careful in using these models... If the GFS is wrong then these NHC products will be wrong as well... Just something to keep in mind... Now lets identify the pattern using teleconnections...
When looking at Japan to figure out the future pattern for the US you want to look at the trough/ridge pattern affecting asia and correlate that to the US 6-10 days out... 6 days for the west coast of the US and 10 days for off the east coast of the US... So since were about 9 days out from possible landfall I think this chart should work out well... These are 12z charts for Asia today (August 14th) which again I think is the best to use for teleconnecting invest 90L's possible landfall... Remember that Tokyo, Japan matches up in latitude with Cape Hatteras... The SE part of China matches up best with the Gulf Coast/Florida...
The first thing you should notice is a decent trough digging into the northern/central parts of Japan... This would correlate to a decent trough in the mid-atlatic region about 9 days from now which should again match up well... This along with the timing of 90L is the key in predicting the future pattern!!! I think there are two possbile scenarios at this time!
1) The trough and 90L meet up and you get a hard turn right/north before landfall in Florida, very similar to
Hurricane Floyd in 1999...
2) The trough slows down or doesn't dig in as much or 90L speeds up enough that the trough misses it completely and strikes Florida... Even in this scenario I do think regardless if the trough isn't as strong or progressive it will still pull 90L up enough to miss the islands and hit Florida then entering the gulf... A little like
Andrew in 1992... NOT SAYING IT'S going to be the intensity of Andrew, just saying the track "could" be somewhat similar...
Bottom line is I definitely don't think the european is correct about 90L heading towards Newfoundland... Usually I really favor the european but in this case I think it's way off... I hate to side with the GFS but I think its solution is much more likely than the european... Personally I think it will be closer to the GFS but I do think 90L feels enough of the trough to at the very least pull it north of the islands and into Florida... At this time I actually think the trough will be strong enough and timing will match up well enough for 90L to head towards the Carolinas... Of course this is ~ 9 days out but that's my insight on 90L as of now... I'll update again when we start to get invest 90L going... It should strengthen into a TS by Sunday in my personal opinion... At that time we'll know a lot more and I'll update again! This needs to be watched CLOSELY as a major threat to the US coast line...
By the way the current 0z GFS has 90L slamming into Miami and again slamming into the Florida panhandle... I'm not going to speculate on intensity which would be IMPOSSIBLE to predict at this point but it does show the affect of the teleconnection and the impending trough... The 0z GFS is siding with a weaker/slower trough allowing 90L to strike Florida first before heading hard north towards the panhandle... This is very possible and again completely oppisite of what the GFS usually does! USUALLY the GFS progresses the trough too fast/digs in the trough too far south... So to be honest when I see this it scares me a little... Also PLEASE keep in mind that if we do have a major hurricane on our hands this will only strengthen the ridge even more as it pumps mass amounts of latent heat into it...
I feel confident that 90L strikes the US mainland, I'm just not confident enough to say Florida over the Carolinas at this time... I'm leaning Carolinas but one thing is for sure, I DEFINITELY think the european is way off and way too right! I actually think the 0z GFS is much more likely to be correct then the european!!! Everyone needs to watch 90L very closely as it might be the storm of the year! Why do I say that? Well it looks like the Atlantic will shut down again towards the end of August/beginning of September... But hey that's another post for another time! More updates to come soon!!!
Update!!! TD 2 now reforms in Atlantic... Just happened while writing this blog... The southeast needs to watch this closely like I stated earlier in my update!!!
