This is going to be a quick post... The Canadian is still showing a tropical landfalling threat for the US about 6 days out... This is very similar to yesterday except for the fact that it's a little faster with the possible tropical cyclone which by the way would be called Danny... The teleconnections show that a ridge should start building as the system is nearing the US... I really do think this is a legitimate threat for the US not only because of the forecasted ridge but mainly due to the fact it shouldn't develop until it's close to home... See the post below as to why that is important!
Even though the energy is originating from the deep tropics it shouldn't start developing until it's near or just pass the Lesser Antilles... We will see what happens but you can see on satellite imagery the upper level low that is rapidly moving south from Bill is starting to slowly ventilate this currently weak wave... Eventually as this upper level low moves southwest and the wave moves toward the islands I think you need to watch for development as it really should start to get ventilated... Also it will move into a better environment overall... It will be interesting to see what happens, but the threat definitely exist if something can develop! Again keep in mind that the Canadian is still the only model showing this! However I think it's on to something as it did VERY WELL with Hurricane Bill...
I will say that I just looked at the UKMET and it's starting to slowly pick up on this possible threat as well... You can see an inverted trough in the Bahamas which is usually a sign of tropical development this far out... Again we'll see what happens but I find this very intriguing...
No comments:
Post a Comment