Well I seriously doubt Danny is going to make it to a hurricane before it gets to Cape Hatteras... The low-level circulation is still exposed from the main convection which is not a good sign for intensification... The shear and dry air has never gotten out! I will say this will strengthen some as it goes up the coast not by pure topical processes but instead by baroclinic processes which I talked about in previous posts... At this point I think a strong tropical storm is more likely at the very best... I still think I'm going to be really close with the track... Danny has continued to move a lot more west than the NHC and the models thought... In the end I think Danny will go very close to Hatteras and maybe a little west of Hatteras... The GFS/NHC will be too far east! Grade predictions as of now...
Track: A-
Strength: C- (Only reason I'm not giving myself a worst grade is I still think Danny will strengthen as it goes up the coast... If it doesn't then I'll lower it to a D-)
Long range overall forecast: A-
Overall: B
I hate to be wrong about any part of a forecast but it is what it is... You live and learn and move on... I always talk about how EXTREMELY hard tropical intensity forecasting is but at the same time I'm ALWAYS going to say what I think... I would rather be wrong and learn from my mistakes instead of not even giving it a shot... If you don't put it on the line then how are you going to learn? That's something I feel very strongly about!
UPDATE!!!
Track: B+ (Never developed so it didn't phase but still closer than GFS...)
Strength: D- (Didn't become a hurricane even though it is stronger today than yesterday...)
Long Range Overall Forecast: A- (Picked up on a legitimate US threat over a week out!)
Overall: C+/B-
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