Well the European is 100% on board with what should shortly be invest 92L... It develops what will be called "Danny" just north of the Bahamas... It then takes it just off Cape Hatteras and then rolls it into New England... A couple of things here... I personally think the system develops a little quicker and a little more south... Also I'm just a little west of the European... The European is the champ of the tropics so I'm not going to make the same mistake twice with what may become Danny, however I do think it at least clips North Carolina on it's way north...
The teleconnections showed a decent trough into north-central Japan so it's very likely it will break down the ridge and allow "Danny" north... I just wonder if the European is developing "Danny" a little too north and also an little too slow... Why is this important? Well if what may be become "Danny" can develop a little faster and more south then I think the ridge will influence it a little more west initially before getting pick up by the trough to the north... We will see what happens but my main threat as of now is eastern North Carolina...
Either way "Danny" is a legitimate threat to the US... Even if it does miss North Carolina it will then become a New England threat quickly... The UKMET is more in my thinking of development quicker and further south... I will say I don't really like its north-east hook and this is where I think the European has a better handle on it moving more north then north-east.... So in the end I do like the European I'm just a little quicker and further south which should allow for landfall in eastern North Carolina... Again though this means ABSOLUTELY NOTHING if what may become "Danny" doesn't even develop... Were in wait and see mode right now!!!
Also really quick I wanted to point out the the Canadian is in line with the European with the end game of what may become "Danny"... Please consider that the Canadian has been all over this since day one so I do put a lot of stock into it... It develops it quicker and further south but the end game is similar to the European... It takes it just off the Hatteras and then rams it into New England... Again I think the more northern track is correct... This doesn't mean there will be no motion east but I'm not buying a hard hook east! It also really deepens it out! If it does "bomb out" then I think it will be a little more west as it will pump the ridge... I personally believe it will at least hit the outer banks of North Carolina (eastern NC being my main threat) but again it's going to be a close/tough call...
3 comments:
Thanks! What does "pump the ridge" mean???
-Bill Owens
Hurricanes release tons of latent heat... The bigger/stronger the hurricane the more latent heat it will release into the atmosphere... The models have trouble picking up on this extra heat, especially the GFS... So as the hurricane releases this latent heat it will begin to "pump the ridge" which it just a fancy way of saying it will make the ridge stronger... When that happens hurricanes tend to be "pushed" a little more west than the forecasted track...
Again all models have some trouble with this but I have noticed the GFS is especially bad about it... So if we do have an intensifying hurricane that is forecasted just off the coast the extra heat could expand the ridge (by strengthening it) and help steer the hurricane onto land instead of just offshore... This is not perfect by any means however I've seen it happen a lot...
Oh, Ok. So its kinda like Reebok Pumps (I am dating myself)? The hurricane pumps all of this air into it and makes it stronger? But models are like Nikes in that they see it happening but have no answer for it.
Post a Comment