The Next Possible Threat...

I just wanted to talk briefing about the next possible tropical threat to the US... Right now it's just a weak wave coming off Africa but the potential is there for development down the road... Hurricane Bill has robbed the deep tropics of a lot of energy but you we still have some decent rising motions in the Atlantic... This upswing of the MJO should shut down by September 1st but for now it's a positive factor for development in the Atlantic...

With Bill robbing a lot of energy I don't see what might become Danny developing anytime soon... Unfortunately this not a good thing for the US... The slower what may become Danny develops the less likely it will get picked up by a TUTT and pulled north... When a storm is weak the updrafts are not near as high as a stronger storm... So obviously since the towers are not near as high as a stronger storm it's much less likely to be picked up by the upper level steering flow... See Hurricane Bill who developed quickly as good reference for this...


Right now the Canadian sees this as a threat for the east coast about 7/8 days out! Keep in mind though that this is the only model picking up on this as of now... I'm going to look at teleconnections in much more detail tonight to see what the pattern may hold in the future... I will say I did take a brief look at it and currently there is a decent trough in the northern parts of Japan but at the same time there is a decent ridge building in just south of Japan...

So I wonder if everything correlated correctly if a trough would dig in enough to pull what may become Danny north... If I had to guess now I would say no! If the a ridge did build in near the Bahamas then the US is in trouble with Danny... Of course this means nothing if it doesn't develop! Again I'll have to look at that in much more detail later... It's nothing to worry about right now but I thought I would at least bring everyone's attention to it... Only time will tell!!!