Let's do a quick overview of the models... I'm going to start with the Canadian who has been all over what should become Danny since Day-1... It has shifted a little west from the Outer Banks of North Carolina to near Wilmington, NC... Also it still has a strong hurricane that is strengthening at landfall... It then rides up the Chesapeake and into New England... This would be a bad scenario for the eastern seaboard especially if the Canadian is correct with the rapid intensification...
The European has also shifted west... It had what should become Danny off the coast of Hatteras where now it brings it move over Morehead City, NC... It's showing a much weaker tropical cyclone, however it still shows a strengthening storm at landfall which is key! A strengthen storm will mix those faster winds aloft to the surface much more readily than a weakening storm... Like the Canadian the European takes the system up the eastern seaboard but again as a much weaker storm...
The UKMET has a similar look to the European... It may be a little stronger but again they are almost identical... It did shift west from just off Cape Hatteras to Morehead City, however the biggest difference is in the track after that... It was showing a hard hook northeast yesterday which I definitely didn't buy! Today it's showing a more northward movement, eventually slamming into the northeast, which I think it much more realistic! The position of the trough over the continental US tells me that Danny should be pulled north not northeast... This is IMPORTANT especially when your dealing with millions and millions of people along the northeast coast!
The GFS shows what should be Danny heading out to sea not affecting the eastern seaboard... Honestly the GFS in my opinion is out to lunch right now... It's initializing the center of circulation over the deepest convection where the actual center should form much more south where you see the best pressure falls... This is a typical feedback problem with the GFS... Also it has a major problem with heat and heat transfer which I have talked about in the past... In this case it's trying to hand off heat north instead of bundling it where the center of circulation should form... I will say in the last few runs the GFS has been coming back west, so hopefully it's trying to correct this error... Right now though the GFDL and HWRF are useless because it's initialized off GFS model input... BAD DATA IN = BAD DATA OUT!!!
Above is the current water vapor image of what should become Danny... It's getting sheared by an upper level low which actually will eventually move away and start ventilating the system... As the upper level low backs off, the shear will relax and it will begin to form an outflow jet, similar to the rising motions found in a jet streak (RR/LF), which will ventilate the system and help strengthen it... Also with little to no dry air and warm deep ocean waters, I think this system will go to town... I believe you will see a depression form sometime early tomorrow...
I was glad to see the models shift west today... That has been my thinking all along and I see no reason to change, especially with the models coming around like it has... Of course until we form a low-level circulation and the models see this low-level circulation, Nothing is for sure... However I still like eastern North Carolina as my main threat! If I had to give an exact location I would say in-between the Canadian and Europeans track near Jacksonville, NC...
With the strength that's really hard right now... I do think it will be a hurricane and I honestly think it has a shot at a Cat-3... Bottom line, I think it will be a strengthening hurricane at landfall... Whether it's a strengthening Cat-1 or Cat-2 or even Cat-3 is really anyones guess right now... People in North Carolina and the northeast need to watch this closely as what should be Danny will be moving into prime conditions for rapid feedback and intensification... How much??? Well lets give it a day or so before we start to pinpoint that... Forecasting tropical cyclone intensity is one of the hardest things to forecast in weather! Even though I feel confident in saying it will be a strengthen system at landfall... More posts to come soon!
No comments:
Post a Comment