Well 94L is looking as good as ever tonight, even though it's still not Erika yet... I'm not going to challenge the NHC but it does really surprise me... It looks much better than Danny ever did, but hey that's a whole different story in itself... I do think it will be named soon, hopefully... I have said since the beginning (see old blog post) with 94L that I don't see this as a landfalling threat to the US... I'll post in more detail tomorrow but a trough is going to pick up what will be Erika and pull her north like Bill... The teleconnections showed this days ago and now most of the models are picking up on this as well... Even the champion of the tropics, the European, shows a strong hurricane WELL off the coast of the US heading north... In the short term what will be Erika is going to have a tough time with shear and also dry air... Again I'll post tomorrow but I don't see a lot of intensification in the short term... Also I don't think this is a threat to the US... But hey anything can happen???
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