Today in Intro to Meteorology...

Here is something I posted in my Intro to Meteorology class today that I thought I would share with everyone... A topic was brought up talking about how as humans we hate to see what hurricanes can do but as meteorologist we are fascinated by them... Basically we were just talking about how it's exciting to see the tropics getting active again after being dead all year... Of course again no one wants to see the horror or destruction but as a meteorologist and a scientist I would be lying if I said I didn't enjoy studying this amazing force of weather... It eventually led me into talking about the long range tropical potential for September in the Atlantic basin! It looks to me like were going to have to get something homegrown as the deep tropics should shut down!!! Here is the post:

"Trust me I understand... I will say after seeing things like Katrina first hand I've toned it down a lot but of course as a scientist hurricanes are amazing to study/experience... I will say that I think things are really going to slow down again here soon... This may be a little beyond Intro to Met but this upswing in tropical activity is coinciding with an up-phase of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation)...

Basically all that means is there is a lot of rising motion in the Atlantic right now... When you get this extra rising motion it only enhances your chances to get tropical development... Were about to leave this up-phase and enter a down-phase during September... This doesn't mean there won't be any tropical development but it will limit the potential...

Here are a couple of links relating to the MJO... Typically when we are in Phase 1 or 2 we see the increased threat for tropical activity in the Atlantic... I'm not an expert on this what so ever but I find it very fascinating... Also it's a great tool to help you in long range tropical forecasting... We will see what happens!

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml

Also check this chart out... It's another way of looking at MJO pulses... The green equals rising motion and the red indicates sinking motions...

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/cfs.gif

You see we have rising motions in the Atlantic right now but by the end of the month the MJO up-phase starts to leave the Atlantic... By the middle of September you see the Atlantic is entrenched in sinking motions which is not good for tropical development...

Again this is just one tool of many you can use to help predict the long range tropics... Nothing is perfect of course especially when your making a forecast on a forecast... However I have found these charts extremely useful in the past...

Greg

Ps... In my opinion the more tools you have in forecasting the better your forecasts will be... Also be careful on how you use these tools... A good example of this is El Nino... Just saying that El Nino is going to kill the US hurricane season is not accurate... Each El Nino is unique and you can't make broad general statements about the overall pattern... Look at 1969 and 2004... Both weak El Nino years like this one and those were very active years... 1969 (17 named storms) you had Camille and we all know what happened in 2004 (15 named storms) with Charley and Ivan... A lot of the time El Nino is just a reaction to many other things in the overall pattern, not the actual cause of the pattern... Just something to keep in mind..."