Long Distance Chase Team: Tropical Storm Danny...

The NHC upgraded 92L to tropical storm Danny at 10am CT this morning... This was expected but I do want to touch on a few important things with Danny... This is NOT a typical tropical setup... Danny is going to interact with a trough as it heads towards the coast... There will be a trough split in the eastern US leaving back a piece of energy Danny is going to phase with... This will pull Danny more west and in my opinion keep it well west of the GFS track... The Canadian, UKMET, and European are still on board with a hurricane riding up the eastern seaboard... Also the WRF is now on board as well... I think the NHC is too far east which makes sense because they are relying on their tropical models that are initialized off the GFS... Of course there is a chance it could be right, but I really doubt it!

There is actually some dry air getting wrapped into the western side of Danny which I didn't expect... Overall the environment should moisten up... Danny will also be moving over the gulf stream which is ideal for strengthening considering all the warm deep water available to feedback this storm... It's still interacting with the upper level low which is shearing Danny... In the short term the environment is not ideal for intensification but in about 36-48 hours things will get interesting quickly... Like I said earlier this is not your typical warmed core cyclone that is going to make landfall... You're going to see sort of a "hybrid" tropical cyclone as it interacts with this trough... It's still a warm cored cyclone but it's not going to act in typical fashion as it will mainly strengthen due to the interaction with the trough instead of warm water, no shear, and moist air... The overall environment is never going to be ideal for rapid intensification but the trough will compensate for that!

By Friday when Danny interacts with the trough that's when things are going to start to get interesting... It will begin to ventilate Danny which should be in a more moist environment over warm deep waters at that point... This is when you have to watch out for rapid intensification... Not just because of the relaxing shear and warm water, but mainly because of the ventilation occurring do to the trough split... Joe Bastardi brought up a great point with conservation of vorticity which will see BIG TIME with Danny...

I'm still sticking with an eastern North Carolina landfall as at least a Cat-1 hurricane... Could it be stronger? Yes, definitely... But it's very possible it will hit it's peak near Virginia Beach and north instead of Cape Hatteras... This of course is dependent on the track... The more over water (offshore) Danny is the more likely it will exploded as it heads into New England... If it does make landfall at lets say at Morehead City, NC then it will most likely be at its peak then, because it will have to cross over way too much land as it heads toward New England... Again I think there is no doubt this will be a strengthening tropical cyclone as it approaches the eastern seaboard... It's still to early to give an exact intensity prediction, but I feel confident in saying it will be Hurricane Danny at landfall...

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