Thoughts on Ana and especially Bill...

Ana just couldn't keep it together going across Hispaniola and Cuba... I still believe if it would have been able to survive (keeping a low-level circulation) it would have exploded in the Gulf.... The Gulf of Mexico is primed but if nothing enters the Gulf then it really doesn't matter... This is an area to watch closely as it appears more and more likely were looking at homegrown storms this year... The deep tropics is about to close up shop!


Bill sure was a learning experience! First I still think the teleconnections worked well in picking up on the long range pattern... It saw the trough heading to the Mid-Atlantic which would have steered Hurricane Bill away from Florida and into the Carolinas... However there are limitations with anything... While the teleconnections picked up on the main pattern it can't pick up on mesoscale like processes you see with upper level lows... As a forecaster you have to understand that these TUTT's exist in the north-central Atlantic but it's basically impossible to forecast the placement of these upper level lows days and especially more than a week out! So in the end Bill was steered by two upper level lows which pulled it much more north than I thought it would... The turn at the end is still going to be dead on but the turn ahead of the main front was not foreseen by me...

I tip my hat to the European as it saw this from the beginning... Like I said I usually go with the European but I admit I thought it was going to be dead wrong this time... Oh well you live and learn and I promise next time I'll be hard pressed to throw it out without OVERWHELMING evidence... The European is far from perfect but it still reigns as the super tropical heavy weight model champion of the world... Until something changes and a model takes the belt from it I'll always be VERY cautious in throwing it out completely...


Even though in the end the European will destroy the GFS 9-10 days out, I still think the European is a little too far right in the end... A strong hurricane like this is really pumping the ridge with latent heat so I do think Bill will be able to build enough of a ridge that Cape Cod will see at least tropical storm conditions if not a few hurricane force gusts... It all depends on the tilt of the trough and the timing of the trough heading towards the east coast... Of course the slower it moves or if the tilt can be become negative then the more west Bill will go... However if you stay at a neutral to positive tilt and things speed up a little then Bill will go more east... In the end it looks like the trough will lag enough and turn negatively tilted enough to allow Bill to come closer to the US coast... Worst cast scenario it runs into the cape instead of passing just to the east... The next day is key on that, but again I really think Cape Cod will see tropical storm conditions late Saturday into early Sunday, especially considering TS force winds extended out 200 miles to the west and northwest of Bill... Regardless the waves are going to be VERY IMPRESSIVE!!!

Check this out!!!


This is the Wave Watch III forecasted wave heights off the accuweathre pro site that shows you 42 foot seas not that far off the eastern seaboard... Near the shore you are getting well over 10 foot waves... Again it just shows you the strength of this system and the waves it's going to generate... Any jog west will not just increase the wind and rain but it will also increase the wave height potential... The gradient is pretty darn tight...

One last thing about Bill is the angle of attack... A lot of the time you have a hurricane hugging the coast which will pull cooler drier air into the system causing it to weaken fairly quickly... In this case since Bill is coming from a different angle off the coast away from the land, so you're not going to see him pull as much cooler drier air into the system until it gets close to Cape Cod... This will keep Bill stronger longer and will also only make conditions worst... This time it's not a case of system speed being able to get hurricane conditions into New England fast enough before major weakening occurs across colder water...

I know Joe Bastardi from accuweather is comparing Bill to the 1938 and 1944 great New England hurricanes in strength but thankfully this time it SHOULD not make a direct strike... Also really quick consider that those two hurricane struck during the warm phase of the AMO like we are in today... What does that mean? More heat and energy (warmer water) for this hurricane to feedback off of... Time will tell but Bill may still have a lasting impact in Cape Cod!!!