Thursday, October 30, 2008


Unfortunately I have got a lot worst and feel very sick tonight...  I don't have the flu but my head is killing me, sinuses are clogged,  and I have a bad sore throat...  It could be a lot worse but I do hope I get better soon...  I will say tomorrow and the rest of the weekend looks beautiful...  Tonight is the last night we should get into the 30's for awhile...  Here is the NWS numbers for Starkville, MS for the next 4 days...  It should be mostly sunny each of the next 4 days...

Friday:  72/40  
Saturday:  74/42
Sunday:  75/48
Monday:  74/52  

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Getting Sick!!!

I'm not feeling very good at all right now so I'm going to keep this short...  I think the last two nights playing football in the cold has finally got me...  I sure hate being sick!!!

Last night we got down to 28 degrees at GTR and were below freezing for over 6 hours...  A fairly decent freeze for us in Starkville, but not anything really that unusual...  Were maybe about a week early or so...  The NWS has issued another freeze warning for us in Starkville between 3am and 8am...  GTR should get to near 30 degrees tonight which is basically what the NWS is going....  Today we got up to 63 degrees and tomorrow should be about 5 degrees warmer...  Halloween looks pretty good with high temperatures approaching 73 degrees...  The weekend also looks pretty darn good with highs in the lower to mid 70's and lows in the mid 40's...

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Freeze Warning!!!

Almost every single Mississippi county expect for a few along the southern Mississippi coast is under a freeze warning tonight from 1am to 9am...  For Starkville the NWS is now going 28 degrees which I think is going to be close...  It may be a degree or so lower at GTR but again I think 28 is close...  Last night we got to 30 degrees at GTR and the high only got up to 54 degrees today...  Continually showing that this air mass is verifying colder than the models...  Tomorrow the NWS is going with a high of 64...  I think GTR will be closer to 62 but again I think it's going to be close...  Either way it's been a cold couple of days...  Originally being from Los Angeles, I not the biggest fan of cold weather...  Don't get be wrong, I LOVE the snow, but cold clear days/nights just isn't my thing...

On a quick side note our intramural championship game was tonight...  We just missed out scoring right before the half but I did hit Jared Allen with a 70 yard bomb to put us up 6-0 in the 4th quarter...  The Cow Bells went down the field and scored with a girl which is 9 points...  We drove down the field again but we just couldn't quite get there...  Unfortunately we lost 9-6 but I'm very proud of our team...  We played so hard and I know we pushed them harder than any other team in the last two years...  We just came up a little short!  By the way this was my last intramural game...  I'm 28 going on 29 and I feel like this was a good way to go out...  We really did have an amazing playoff run!!!  :-)  

Monday, October 27, 2008

Championship Bound!!!

We won our semifinal game tonight 9-0 so we have made it all the way to the Championship game!  I couldn't be happier for my team right now...  I scored on a pass from Emily Binger on our first drive and our defense won it from there...  It was especially sweet to beat the team that put us out last year...  Tomorrow night at 8pm is the MSU CO-REC intramural championship game...  We play a team named Cow Bells which is EXTREMELY good, but no matter what happens I'm very proud of our team!!!  If the New York Giants could beat New England in the Super Bowl last year, we sure the heck can beat the Cow Bells....

With the weather we actually only got up to 55 degrees today...  It felt like it too as the wind gusted to 24mph out of the NW today!!!  By far the coldest day since last March!  Tonight we should get to freezing, especially away from Starkville...  If the winds can stay light/calm I think 31 is very possible at GTR...  We will see some patchy frost early tomorrow morning across the county...  Considering the fact that the air mass again is verifying cold, I'm glad to see the NWS drop their high to 57 tomorrow...  I think 57 will be close even though I wouldn't be surprised to see it only hit 55 again tomorrow...  With the low tomorrow night I think upper 20's is very possible...  The NWS is going 31 but I think it will be a couple degrees cooler which will make a difference....  With Calm winds tomorrow night I really think 29 is near a lock at GTR...  This would lead to a decent freeze...  We will see though...  Either way it's going to be another cold game for us....  Kick off was 37 degrees tonight and I think it may be a degree or two cooler tomorrow...   

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Cold Front on our Doorstep...

The winds have shifted to the NW in the last 30 minutes as a cold front is on our doorstep...  If you loop the radar/satellite you can see it entering Oktibbeha County...  We are going to see a VERY noticeable change in our weather especially over the next two days...  Tomorrow's high shouldn't even get to 60 as the NWS is going with 59 degrees...  I think that will be fairly close...  Not only will we see chilly temperatures but you will definitely notice the winds tomorrow...  They will be gusting out of the NW tomorrow as high as 25mph...  It will feel like the coldest day we have had since last March...  Tuesday winds will be similar with a high near 60, but winds should slacken out of the NW to only around 5-10mph...

The low on Monday night will get very close to freezing...  I'm sure we will see some patchy frost away from the city of Starkville...  I know most of you may laugh at me calling Starkville a city, but I promise you even in a city of 30,000 people there is a heat island effect...  I've actualy studied it myself when I was an undergrad...  I bet near GTR we'll see temps at 31/32 degrees tomorrow night which is usually a few degrees cooler than Starkville...  The only thing keeping it from going lower is the fact that the winds will be up...  Tuesday looks like a lock for a freeze in Starkivlle and Oktibbeha County...  Even the NWS has come down some and is calling for a low of 30 degrees Tuesday night...  If the wind can go calm we will see temps in the upper 20's which will lead to a fairly hard freeze...  I think frost will be common place all across the city/county as the growing season will officially come to an end...  This is right on schedule though as we usually see our first freeze towards the end of October...  We will warm up to the mid 60's on Wednesday and near 70 on Thursday but again the next two days is going to feel like the beginning of winter...  

On a side note GTR only got up to 75 degrees today...  Also the low got down to 39 degrees which goes to show you that the air mass was colder than models were picking up on...  It will be interesting to see if that trend continues with the next cold front...  Even a few degrees makes a big difference especially when you are taking about 32 degrees versus 29 degrees...

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Chilly Night...

Last night the low got down to 41 degrees at GTR...  Honestly I was a little surprised it went below 42 because of the moisture in the ground...  It was still fairly close though...  Tonight will be a perfect night for radiational cooling...  Calm winds and clear skies should allow us to drop near 40 degrees tonight...  The official NWS forecast is for a low of 42 degrees but I feel with basically no moisture left from Thursday's night/Friday's morning rain event the low will at least hit 40 degrees...  If we got to 41 last night I really don't see any reason why we shouldn't get a few degrees cooler tonight...  

The NWS weather service is calling for a high tomorrow of 77 degrees...  I think that's going to be tough to get to because we will start out cooler than predicted...  I would say 75 is more likely...  Today we only got to 66/67 degrees due to the fact we started out about 3 degrees cooler than originally thought...  Plus the air mass in general is verifying a little colder...  Fall is definitely here as the rest of the week looks fairly chilly...  A cold front with basically no moisture will move across our region Sunday night...  This will keep highs in the lower 60's Monday and  Tuesday...  We will have to watch for our first freeze of the season on Tuesday night...  Even the NWS is going 31 for Tuesday night...  Regardless of the freeze, Fall as arrived for us in the Deep South!!!

Friday, October 24, 2008

Starkville, MS Weather..

Well it turned out that a 1/2 inch of rain verified very well for us in Starkville...  The top of Hilbun Hall on the campus of Mississippi State University got .45" for the event...  With the complex of thunderstorms to our south blocking our inflow you could tell that the NAM's QPF was overdone...  Also the radar trends seemed to also show this well...  It just goes to show you that living in a place and seeing trends over the years is very important in forecasting...  No skill just experience... 

Right now it is a little chilly outside with a temperature of 45 degrees...  The official NWS forecast is 44 tonight which would make you think it's way off since it's already 45 degrees...  It may get down to 42 or so but I doubt it will get much lower with all the moisture in the ground...  Because of the 1/2 inch of rain we had the soil moisture will keep our dewpoints up tonight...  Tomorrow we should get to near 70 which will feel great!  Perfect day to grill out and watch some college football...  With a sunny clear day tomorrow, most of the moisture from our rain event should evaporate...  Because of this tomorrow night I feel like the upper 30's is very possible...  The official NWS forecast is for 41 degrees but I feel like we will get to 39 or so...  We will see....

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Canes Win Again!!!

We did have some off and on light rain throughout the night but overall it wasn't too bad...  Oh and by the way we won again 17-6...  We jumped out to a 17-0 lead scoring on a huge 4th down play just before half-time...  Thankfully we held on because we played a very good team tonight...  For the second straight year we made it to the final 4 of MSU CO-REC intramural football...  Ironically we actually play the same team that beat us last year in the final 4..  It's going to be tough but I feel like we can win...  We had a lead last year but they got us in the end...  We still haven't played our best game yet so hopefully we can put it all together Monday night!!!

With the rain the NAM was dead on with the complex of storms along the northern Gulf coast...  This complex of heavy rain and thunderstorms blocked the inflow for us in Starkville...  I have seen this countless times over the years so I felt like the NAM had a very plausible forecast...  Because the inflow was blocked we didn't even come close to the rainfall potential...  This complex is still currently blocking the inflow and is why we still haven't had heavy rain to this point...  Rain is still on the way and I still think we will see near a 1/2 inch here in Starkville...  The 0z NAM is still showing .75" - 1.00" for us...  However looking at the radar I don't know if we will see 1 inch totals for the event...  It would really have to fill in which I don't see with the complex still to the south and east...  I'm sure there will be locally higher amounts but I think 0.5" is much more likely for us in Starkville...

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Rain on the way...

Tomorrow a nice cold front will be approaching from the west...  Rain is a 100% chance but the main question is when does it arrive in Starkville?  It looks to me like the heaviest rain will arrive Thursday night and last until Friday morning...  There are two things that stand out to me about the rainfall totals...  First the NAM is really hinting at a complex of storm south along the gulf coast...  If this does happen then inflow will be cut off and it will be tough for us to maximize our rainfall potential...  Second both the GFS and the NAM show the heaviest rainfall north of the highway 82 corridor...  The last few runs have been showing this so I don't really have a reason to go against it...  For us in Starkville I think were looking at .50" to 1.00" totals...  Much heavier rain with totals over 1.5" - 2" should be common in northern Mississippi...  I just hope the heaviest rain can hold off until after our playoff intramural football game...  It starts at 8pm so it's going to be close call...  I'm sure we will have off and on light rain after dark but hopefully the heavy rain does hold off until later in the night...  It looks like it will but you never know...  Like usual a few hours makes all the difference and I just hope our game doesn't get cancelled...  I'll I can do is keep my fingers crossed!!!

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Off by two hours...

Well it turned out I was wrong by two hours but unfortunately it makes all the difference...  Just as the sun came up the clouds rolled in and the temperatures stopped going up...  It hit 47 right before dawn and I thought we had a decent chance for 55...  The problem was there was a smaller shortwave ahead of the main trough axis...  This extra uplift caused the clouds and is the reason why we never got to the mid-50's...  The high was actually at midnight when we hit 50 degrees...  None of the models picked up on this lead shortwave until it was way too late...  I truly believe if we had two more hours of sunshine we would have easily hit 54 or 55, but it didn't happen...  And there again is the luck of this contest...  I still feel like I had the right idea, but the luck wasn't on my side this time...  Oh well it happens...  I went 38 for tomorrow which is way lower than national consensus...  Hopefully this time I'll have the luck on my side!!!

Monday, October 20, 2008

Tough Forecast...

Tomorrow is a make it or break it type day for myself and the team in the National Forecast Contest...  We are forecasting for Casper Wyoming  which is not the easiest task...  To make things even tougher we have a cold front approaching...  The question tomorrow is with the timing of that front and the effect on the high tomorrow...  I personally went 55 for tomorrow, where national consensus is 47...  That is a HUGE difference and will mean everything when it comes to the final results of this city...  I believe the front will lag back some allowing for decent heating until the clouds stream in later in the afternoon...  I honestly wanted to go higher than 55 but this is where the game comes in with this contest...  Say I go 60 and it's 54 degrees...  Even though I had the right idea, I wouldn't pick up any points on any forecasters unless they went below 48 degrees...  So even though I think 57 or 58 is VERY possible I went 55 to guarantee myself to pick up points on everyone else...  Of course this means it has to get to 55 which is not a done deal but I feel better sitting at that position then 58 or so...  

That is where the game comes in and is not true forecasting at all...  Personally I think the contest is more of a fun learning experience than a true test of someone's forecasting abilities...  It takes WAY more skill to forecast 7-10 days out then it does to nail a forecast at an ASOS station...  That's basically a lot of luck...  Even though I have done very well over the years and I would LOVE to see the team win, I fully understand it's about 50% luck...  Unfortunately the other 50% skill is more about playing the game then nailing the forecast...  You can't get too greedy in this contest, because if you do you will get burned!!!  Don't get me wrong you have to have a decent amount of forecasting skill but I've seen luck win many times over the years...  Last year our team basically lost by 30 minutes as a squall line approached Memphis, TN...  So bottom line, I hope MSU and myself get lucky tomorrow!  Time will tell but I feel good about it!  Knock on wood of course...   

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Don't Forget!!!

I just want to remind everyone that a new season of Storm Chasers premiers in about 5 minutes on the Discovery channel...  I'll comment about it some after I watch it...  I'm sure it will be decent and it will also be very interesting to see how the addition of Reed Timmer changes things...  Cool guy but wow sometimes he really pushes the limits...  Like I have always said, I wish him the best and I pray he doesn't kill himself one day!!!

Update:  The show is pretty good and I think everyone got a little taste of how hardcore Reed is...  I don't know if I would be laughing if my windshield was breaking, but hey if he has the money then by all means laugh away...  So far it has been pretty tame chasing but I'm sure it will pick up big time as the season goes on...  I know a lot of people give Reed a tough time for chasing the way he does but I say its his life and  it's up to him...  I'm not going to criticize ANYONE for going as hardcore as he does...  Personally I'm a little more careful now in my older age but I understand where he is coming from...  Sometimes I do worry for his safety but I know if he died one day he would die doing what he loves...  How can you hate anyone for that? Lets just hope that doesn't happen to Reed, LDCT, MSU, or any other storm chaser/team!!!

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Currently 52 degrees!!!

Today was the perfect day to watch football and grill out...  The high at KGTR was 72 degrees which felt absolutely amazing!!!  Currently it's 52 degrees outside and the low is supposed to get down to 42 degrees...  A little colder than I would like but hey I'm looking forward to it...  You would think that since I grew up in Los Angeles that I would prefer warm weather...  I'm not saying I like bitter cold weather but I do enjoy having seasons...  That was one reason I really liked living in Arlington, VA...  Plus I really do love snow, which unfortunately I have only seen once living in Mississippi...  I mean I have see flurries here and there, but only one significant snow in the 9 years of living here in Starkville...  The Superstorm of 1993 did get me into meteorology...  The pressure dropped to 28.54" at my house, which is something I'll never forget!  Anyways this weather should continue for the next few days until our next shot of rain by Thursday/Friday...  Hopefully it won't ruin our next intramural playoff football game Thursday night...  

Friday, October 17, 2008

Awesome Weather!!!

It's currently 52 degrees and feels absolutely perfect outside...  This is my favorite time of year when it comes to weather...  It's not cold but yet you still have a nice chill in the air...  You can open up your window at night and truly enjoy the fresh crisp air...  I really do love the fall!!!  Tomorrow the high will be near 70 with a low tomorrow night in the lower 40's...  That's a little chilly but I'm looking forward to it...  The rest of the week looks great also with highs in the mid 70's and lows in the upper 40's...  Hopefully this trend will continue for awhile because I wish this weather would continue all year long...  I know it won't but I'm going to enjoy it as long as possible...   :-)

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Canes Win!!!

Our intramural team the "Canes" won a huge playoff game tonight...  We were down 15-0 in the 4th quarter and came back to win 25-21...  We scored 15 points in the final 3 minutes including a 75 yard touchdown drive in the last 1:30...  I couldn't be prouder of our team and I have to say it was our best win in the 2 years we have played together...  It really was an amazing come back!  I won't be posting anything about the weather tonight because were going to go out and celebrate!  I will say that Omar sure did weaken fast...  I know it's still technically a tropical storm but the trough basically "ate" Omar which looks extratropical at this point...  At its peak Omar had sustained winds of 125mph with a central pressure of 959mb...  

Wednesday, October 15, 2008


Omar is now a POWERFUL major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115mph...  The central pressure is down to 967mb which means Omar has dropped 34mb in 48 hours...  Not only are the pressure fails impressive but the shear fact that Omar went from a depression to a major hurricane in 48 hours is extremely impressive...  Especially when you consider the fact that NO ONE really saw this coming...  I will say the 18z GFDL nailed it yesterday...  Which is also impressive even for a high resolution triply nested grid point model...  Like I said yesterday the trend is your friend in forecasting and with something as uncertain as topical cyclone intensity forecasting, I'll always go with the trend at your hands...  You could see Omar continuously explode and look better and better with each progressive hour...  That's why I thought the 18z GFDL would be correct...  Not any hardcore science just experience and intuition with the trend in front of you! 

The explosion in intensity with Omar is directly related to the more eastern movement of Omar...  Because of the unforeseen strength of this storm two days ago it's being influenced much more by the upper level steering flow which is going to end up saving Puerto Rice from the worst of Omar...  Unfortunately for the Virgin Islands, Omar is only about 30 miles away from impact...  With the movement now NE at 20mph the eye of major hurricane Omar is very close to the island of St. Croix...  Conditions have already gone downhill fast and I expect the worst to be near the US Virgin Islands in about an hour or so...  I have to admit that the storm chasing side of me would love to be in St. Croix right now...  I know that may sound crazy but it's the honest truth...  My passion for hurricanes is the driving force behind my love for weather...  There is nothing like being in the eye of a hurricane to me....  NOTHING, Period end of story....  My thoughts and prayers go out to everyone in Puerto Rico, the Northern Leeward Islands, and especially St. Croix which will just miss a direct hit to their south!  I NEVER want to see anyone get hurt my these magnificence storms!  The powerful is unmatched but unfortunately what they do to humans is horrible sometimes...

Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Omar Explodes into a Hurricane...

When I was talking to you last night tropical depression 15 was looking to become tropical storm Omar...  Well SURPRISE, Omar is now a Hurricane...  Hurricane Omar is undergoing rapid deepening with the central pressure now down to 979mb...  Last night at 10pm CT Omar was at 1001mb which means it has dropped 22mb in 24 hours...  This is pretty darn impressive for a developing tropical cyclone!!!  The movement is towards the NE at 6mph, and this general direction will continue...  However the forward speed of Omar will increase as it begins to feel a trough of low pressure to its north....  It now looks like Omar will strike near the US Virgin Islands late Wednesday night as the trough pulls Omar more east than originally thought! Personally I feel this is directly related to Omar exploding like it did, which is allowing the upper level winds to influence(steer) it much more than if it was a weaker tropical storm...

I have learned in forecasting that the trend is your friend so I have no reason to argue Omar becoming a major hurricane before landfall in the US Virgin Islands...  The 18z GFDL is showing this and I really have no reason to go against it!  Puerto Rice does look to miss the worst of it as Omar will most likely miss them to the east...  I don't think anyone saw this coming yesterday, which just proves to you how little we know about forecasting tropical intensity...  I felt good that it would eventually become a hurricane, but there is no way in you know what that I thought Omar would go from a depression to a hurricane in 24 hours...  Now there is a real chance the islands get hit by a major hurricane!  CRAZY!!!  

Monday, October 13, 2008

Nana weakening fast!!!

Nana has already weakened to a depression and is expected to weaken further into a remnant low in the next 12-24 hours...  Like I said yesterday Nana is NOT a threat unless you are a fish...  98L is now tropical depression 15...  It should become tropical storm Omar sometime tomorrow...  From there it should hit Puerto Rice as a solid tropical storm Wednesday night...  After that it will continue to move northeast out to sea...  Omar will likely become a hurricane once back in the open ocean waters but it's not a threat to anyone including Bermuda...  Everything is basically status quo from yesterday!  Hopefully there will be something more exciting to talk about soon...  We are forecasting for Casper Wyoming right now which is extremely difficult to say the least!  It's only day-1 and things aren't too bad right now, but I'm sure things will get VERY tough soon!!!  

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Nana is NOT a threat!!!

Tropical storm Nana is getting sheared to pieces!!!  The western half of the storm is exposed as the strong upper level westerlies are killing the storm...  Even the NHC expects Nana to be a remnant low in 48 hours, if not sooner...  Even if the shear relaxes in the long term and Nana redevelops I'm pretty much a 100% sure now that it will head out to sea...  I thought it had a good chance of slipping under the weakness in the Atlantic but it obviously developed to quick...  9 out of 10 times if a system is named before 40 W it will feel the weakness and head out to sea...  Nana is not a threat to the US which is great news!

98L in the Caribbean also doesn't look like a threat to the US...  All the global models show 98L heading out to sea...  Also the HWRF and the GFDL show what will become Omar heading out to sea as well...  Both the HWRF and the GFDL do have Omar hitting near Puerto Rico as a tropical storm...  After hitting Puerto Rice Nana should get picked up by a trough which will cause it to accelerate to the northeast...  It probably will become a hurricane briefly, but even Bermuda is safe as Omar looks to head way east of there...  Again this is good news!

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Storm Chasing Websites...

I'm in a wait and see mode with the tropics right now...  I'm having serious doubts that any of the two threats out in the Atlantic will theatening the US...  Only time will tell but the models sure aren't showing it!  Once I know more I'll post in more detail but right now there is really no point...  Again it's not looking likely right now which is GOOD news!  Since I don't have much to say about the tropics...  I'll leave you with some cool storm chasing/chaser sites...  Enjoy!!! 

Friday, October 10, 2008

Really quick on the Tropics...

I'm not feeling the best right now so I'm going to keep this quick...  I'll try to update in more detail later tonight/tomorrow...  As I did say last night area number 1 is the main threat to the US...  Area number 2 "may" develop but even if that happens it's not a threat to the US...  With this up-phase of the MJO I think we can get 3 named storms in the next two weeks...  The question is does any hit the US?  After this last upswing of the MJO in the Caribbean/Atlantic I feel good in saying that the tropical season is basically over for us in the US...  

Really quick on the medium area of concern(#1) in the atlantic...  First we have to get development and then it's a race between a trough in the eastern US next week and the possible development of Nana...  If we can get a trough to dig into the Gulf later next week then I feel good in saying that Nana should get pulled north towards the US...  If the trough lags back or doesn't dig as far south then Nana will push west into the Yucatan...  The teleconection for Japan correlates to a decent trough in the eastern US late next week but I wonder if it will dig south enough?  It's going to be really close!  First we have to get development though as the European has backed off completely today...  I still think Nana will eventually development but until that happens it's going to be tough at best to guess on strength and movement...  I will say my general ideas from yesterday should be fairly close "IF" Nana does develop...  Time will tell though!!!

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Tropical development on the way???

Both of these areas need to be watched especially in my opinion area number 2...  We are now entering another up-phase of the MJO(rising motion) so it's no surprise that things are getting more active...  Remember MJO rising motions travels across the globe and enhance conditions for possible development of tropical cyclones...  The Canadian shows both of these areas developing while the Euro shows area number 2 developing into a powerful hurricane striking the Yucatan peninsula late next week...  I will say that if you look at Japan right now there is a nice trough digging through the country...  Using the teleconnection we should have a deep trough in the SE US about 8-9 days from now...  This lines up well with the movement of our possible hurricane...  The question is does this trough dig south enough to pick up what will be Hurricane Nana???  Personally I think it will pick up Nana especially considering the fact that it's October and troughs tend to dig in much further south than earlier in the hurricane season...  Why, because the subtropical ridge is beginning to break down!  I'm going to post a detail tropical discussion on this very issue tomorrow...  I will say that if Nana does get pulled north I think it will be hard pressed to reach major hurricane strength at landfall...  It will have to travel over a lot of land and also ocean water temperatures have dropped a lot in the last month...  More to come tomorrow! 

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Tornado in Enterprise Alabama Again!!!

Unfortunately there was a tornado today in Enterprise, AL...  For those of you that may have forgot, Enterprise was hit by a EF4 tornado back on March 1st 2007 where tragically 8 students were killed and at least 50 were injured inside the Enterprise High School...  The students took cover in the proper place as unluckily strong cement walls came down...  The high school was basically destroyed!!!  It was a very very sad story!  Thankfully I don't think anyone was hurt today as what looks like an EF1 "maybe" an EF2 tornado hit the Civic Center...  The roof ripped off the civic center, many cars in the parking lot were damaged as windows blew out, and there was also a lot of trees down...  The tornado occurred around 11:50am CT and was very well warned by the NWS...  Here is the preliminary local storm report out of the Tallahassee NWS office...

232 PM EDT WED OCT 08 2008




10/08/2008 COFFEE AL


March 1-2 2007 Tornado Outbreak (Enterprise F-4)

*Hilbun Hall on the campus of Mississippi State University received 1.35" for the event total...

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

More Rain To Come...

As of 10pm Hilbun Hall located on the Campus of Mississippi State University recorded .83" of rain...  The funny part is we have missed most of the big rains where some places across the Deep South, especially along the Gulf coast states of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida have seen over 10" of rain...  Of course that is not the norm across the south but still just to say anyplace received near a foot of rain today is very impressive...  As for us in Starkville we will continue to see off and on rain throughout tonight and tomorrow morning, so I feel strong in saying we should easily cross the 1" mark by the end of the event!  

On a side note tomorrow is a very tough day in the National Forecast Contest...  We are currently forecasting for the Jacksonville International Airport in Florida...  As I have said before we forecast 8 days for each city...  Until this point KJAX has been fairly straight forward which means it will come down to the next two days forecasting rain...  The frustrating part of this contest is the fact you are forecasting for a bucket in one specific location...  So unfortunately this is where LUCK comes in big time!  You could only be off by a few miles but yet be off by an inch of more...  This is especially true in coastal cities where convective events are near impossible to accurately forecast yet alone "guess" the exact amount of rain that will fall in your bucket!  I remember a couple years ago in Orlando when 3 or 4 miles was the difference between almost no rain and an inch of rain...  Anyways I hope we get LUCKY as a team because the next two days are huge!  I honestly think the contest is at least 40% luck!  But hey that's the nature of the beast...

Monday, October 6, 2008

Rain is on the way!!!

I have been talking about a decent rain event for Starkville, MS and the rest of the south for the last few days...  Well it looks like everything has come together for the rain to start around midday Tuesday and last into Wednesday night/Thursday morning...  The recent 0z NAM QPF is showing between 1.25" and 1.50".  I have been saying I think 1 inch is basically a lock for the Starville, MS region...  Of course you never know for sure in weather but I think enough strong dynamics are coming together for a good fall rain event...  We have a deep trough fighting against a strong subtropical high which will slow down the system and allow a more prolonged period of rain...  We have a nice vort max with good PVA in the region for over 24 hours...  There is some warm air advection which shows us PVA is the main driving force for our UVV's...  We also have a strong LLJ of 40 knots at times coming out of the warm moist Gulf of Mexico...  When you put this all together you get a nice rain event for us in Starkville...   Again I look forward to it!  There is nothing better then getting a good nights sleep when it's raining hard...  Of course it's really tough to wake up on those type of days!  :-)

Sunday, October 5, 2008

When Weather Changed History...

I just watched tonight's season premier of when weather changed history...  It was on the 1900 Galveston hurricane and was fairly good overall...  I thought it could have gone in much more detail on some of the personal aspects of the hurricane but again overall it was decent...  It re-airs tonight at 11am CT on The Weather Channel if you want to watch it...  Also I'm sure it will re-air a few more times this week...  Next week there is going to be a new episode on the Great Chicago Fire of 1871...  

I will say the best documentary I every ever seen on the 1900 Galveston hurricane was on the history channel a few years ago...  It was extremely well made and really hit on the many personal details of the storm...  Not to blame Issac Cline for the hurricane but I thought it was ridiculous for the weather channel to depict Mr. Cline as a hero...  Again I'm not saying it was his fault but at the same time he was far from a hero...  If you read some books on the hurricane and if you watch the history channels documentary on the hurricane, you would realize that Isaac's brother Joseph was the true hero of the storm...  Isaac repeatedly did not listen to his own brothers warnings which ended up being correct....  Anyways you should read into it more if you want to know the real story!

With the weather really quick, things still look very wet on Tuesday/Wednesday for us in Starkville...  The NAM/GFS both still show over an inch for us in Starkville with some areas to the north and west seeing well over 2 inches...  I actually really enjoy the rain and cooler weather so I say bring it on!  We will see exactly how much we get but I think a decent rain event is immanent for Starkville and the South...  Personally I feel one inch is nearly a lock for the entire event...  We will see though?

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Hurricane Ike Video...

Since the weather it still slow I decided to post a lot of Hurricane Ike videos from youtube...  A few are from storm chasers and a few are from national new agencies...  I'll let you be the judge but a couple of these videos you will see show you VERY irresponsible chasing...  I'm not going to call anyone out but if this careless trend continues I GUARANTEE you that chasers(some very well known) will die!!!  You can't keep tempting fate as many time as some have...  I hope I'm wrong but I think it's a ticking time bomb!!!  I still need to upload the video I shot in Galveston Island which I plan on doing Monday/Tuesday...  Sorry for the delay!!!

I will say really quick that a lot of rain is heading our way on Tuesday/Wednesday...  Because a deep trough will be fighting a strong subtropical ridge off the east coast we could see a fairly prolonged period of rain measured in inches...  I'm not saying were going to get flooding rains or anything like that, but we could see 1-2 inches here in Starkville...  Behind the trough things should feel very fall like but unfortunately after that a strong ridge will build back in eventually turning the flow out of the Gulf of Mexico...  This return flow will increase dew points and temperatures making the last bit of "summer" feel fairly uncomfortable...  

Friday, October 3, 2008

Awesome Site!!!

There is a great Hurricane website out there that I'm sure a few of you have already heard out...  If not it's called StormPulse...  It's very user friendly with great graphics and has a lot of great functions to play around with...  You can type in any year and all the tropical cyclones from that year will pop up in a very visual appealing way...  You can also type in a more recent storm like Hurricane Andrew to do a lot of other cool things...  If you type in "Andrew" you can click on each hurricane hunter recon report to see all the details...  It also gives you a detailed recap on the storm telling you the origin, interesting facts, monetary costs, strength, track, etc...  One other cool thing I like it the fact you can click on "storm archive" to see all hurricanes by category!  So if you click on Category-5 you will see all the Cat-5's in recorded history...  Not just the hurricanes that made landfall as a Cat-5 either...  Plus if you want you can break it up by decade and landfalling storms also...  Again it's a REALLY cool site that I recommend everyone to check out!!! 

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Possibly 400 People Still Missing!!!

It's been almost 3 weeks since Hurricane Ike made landfall in Galveston Island and still hundreds are missing... Some estimates are near 400 people which is astounding!!! I'm actually very disappointed in the media on this one... I fully understand that we are in the middle of a presidential election and also that our economy is in trouble, but how do you not make a bigger deal of that? Is money really more important than human lives??? If the missing is not found were looking at the deadliest hurricane since the 1935 Labor Day hurricane which killed 408 people... Even if half are found, it would be the deadliest hurricane excluding Katrina since Camille in 1969!

In this day and age that is unacceptable!!! I understand that over 1,800 people died in Katrina with hundreds still "missing" but lets not minimize Ike's impact here... I know especially in today's society if it's not the worst case scenario then it's really not that news worthy... It's almost like we are constantly searching for the worst possible scenario, hyping it up as much as possible, and when it doesn't happen were like that wasn't that bad... I promise you that if 400 people really did die from Hurricane Ike, that is not only historic but a HUGE deal!!! Since Katrina if a hurricane doesn't kill 1,000 + people then it's only news worthy for a few days... Also bad hurricanes like Rita for example are severely downplayed because it wasn't as bad as Katrina! Honestly though, what is? That is so incredibly ridiculous to me and if the levees didn't break in New Orleans almost a day later, I really think they would be talking about Hurricane Ike is a completely different light!

Unfortunately I think Ike will easily be in the top 20 deadliest US hurricanes if not the top 10 when it's all said and done... Also if you just look at the direct impact of the storm and not the outside impacts like levees breaking a day later, Ike will go down as one the deadliest direct impact hurricanes in a LONG TIME!!! Remember even in Camille most of the deaths occurred in Virginia because of flash flooding... If it really is 400 people lets just think about that for a second... In today's age that should never happen with the public warning system we have from the NHC, NWS, Media, FEMA, US Government, Local Government, etc... I still truly believe from the bottom on my heart that a lot of people didn't leave because Ike was only a "Cat-2"... That is a whole different issue in itself but the hurricane scale HAS to be overhauled if for anything peoples safety!!! I don't mean to go off, but I really don't understand how this story hasn't received more press???

Hurricane Ike Missing (Older Story)

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

One Year Anniversary

Today is the one year anniversary of my girlfriend Jennifer and I dating...  She is such a wonderful person and I'm truly blessed to have someone like her in my life...  I'm going to be enjoying the night with her so I'm not really going to post a lot tonight...  The weather is pretty quite and the tropics are quite as well...  I will say that the weather has been absolutely beautiful in the Deep South...  Here in Starkville were expecting a low in the upper 40's, which is perfect to me!!!  For the rest of the work week we will see highs near 80 and lows near 50...  About as perfect as you get in my opinion...  But not quite as perfect as Jenn!!!  :-)