Friday, October 10, 2008

Really quick on the Tropics...



I'm not feeling the best right now so I'm going to keep this quick...  I'll try to update in more detail later tonight/tomorrow...  As I did say last night area number 1 is the main threat to the US...  Area number 2 "may" develop but even if that happens it's not a threat to the US...  With this up-phase of the MJO I think we can get 3 named storms in the next two weeks...  The question is does any hit the US?  After this last upswing of the MJO in the Caribbean/Atlantic I feel good in saying that the tropical season is basically over for us in the US...  

Really quick on the medium area of concern(#1) in the atlantic...  First we have to get development and then it's a race between a trough in the eastern US next week and the possible development of Nana...  If we can get a trough to dig into the Gulf later next week then I feel good in saying that Nana should get pulled north towards the US...  If the trough lags back or doesn't dig as far south then Nana will push west into the Yucatan...  The teleconection for Japan correlates to a decent trough in the eastern US late next week but I wonder if it will dig south enough?  It's going to be really close!  First we have to get development though as the European has backed off completely today...  I still think Nana will eventually development but until that happens it's going to be tough at best to guess on strength and movement...  I will say my general ideas from yesterday should be fairly close "IF" Nana does develop...  Time will tell though!!!

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