Tough Forecast...

Tomorrow is a make it or break it type day for myself and the team in the National Forecast Contest...  We are forecasting for Casper Wyoming  which is not the easiest task...  To make things even tougher we have a cold front approaching...  The question tomorrow is with the timing of that front and the effect on the high tomorrow...  I personally went 55 for tomorrow, where national consensus is 47...  That is a HUGE difference and will mean everything when it comes to the final results of this city...  I believe the front will lag back some allowing for decent heating until the clouds stream in later in the afternoon...  I honestly wanted to go higher than 55 but this is where the game comes in with this contest...  Say I go 60 and it's 54 degrees...  Even though I had the right idea, I wouldn't pick up any points on any forecasters unless they went below 48 degrees...  So even though I think 57 or 58 is VERY possible I went 55 to guarantee myself to pick up points on everyone else...  Of course this means it has to get to 55 which is not a done deal but I feel better sitting at that position then 58 or so...  

That is where the game comes in and is not true forecasting at all...  Personally I think the contest is more of a fun learning experience than a true test of someone's forecasting abilities...  It takes WAY more skill to forecast 7-10 days out then it does to nail a forecast at an ASOS station...  That's basically a lot of luck...  Even though I have done very well over the years and I would LOVE to see the team win, I fully understand it's about 50% luck...  Unfortunately the other 50% skill is more about playing the game then nailing the forecast...  You can't get too greedy in this contest, because if you do you will get burned!!!  Don't get me wrong you have to have a decent amount of forecasting skill but I've seen luck win many times over the years...  Last year our team basically lost by 30 minutes as a squall line approached Memphis, TN...  So bottom line, I hope MSU and myself get lucky tomorrow!  Time will tell but I feel good about it!  Knock on wood of course...