Both of these areas need to be watched especially in my opinion area number 2... We are now entering another up-phase of the MJO(rising motion) so it's no surprise that things are getting more active... Remember MJO rising motions travels across the globe and enhance conditions for possible development of tropical cyclones... The Canadian shows both of these areas developing while the Euro shows area number 2 developing into a powerful hurricane striking the Yucatan peninsula late next week... I will say that if you look at Japan right now there is a nice trough digging through the country... Using the teleconnection we should have a deep trough in the SE US about 8-9 days from now... This lines up well with the movement of our possible hurricane... The question is does this trough dig south enough to pick up what will be Hurricane Nana??? Personally I think it will pick up Nana especially considering the fact that it's October and troughs tend to dig in much further south than earlier in the hurricane season... Why, because the subtropical ridge is beginning to break down! I'm going to post a detail tropical discussion on this very issue tomorrow... I will say that if Nana does get pulled north I think it will be hard pressed to reach major hurricane strength at landfall... It will have to travel over a lot of land and also ocean water temperatures have dropped a lot in the last month... More to come tomorrow!
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