At this time I have no changes with Danny... The models overall have shifted east but if you watched Danny today on visible imagery it sure looked to move a LOT more west then the models and especially the NHC thought... Again I understand that the NHC's track is based off GFS model data so I'm not surprised with the eastern track... Even though the GFS is starting to shift back west! I still think it at the very least Danny hits Cape Hatteras but if it does miss east it's not going to miss by much, and I definitely believe it's west of the NHC's track... With strength again very tough... I still believe it makes it to a hurricane before nearing North Carolina but if it stays over Hatteras or even just a little east then it will continue to strengthen as it moves towards the Mid-Atlantic/New England as a strong Cat-1 or maybe a Cat-2... At this point I would be VERY surprised even SHOCKED if it made it to a Cat-3... That upper level low just didn't move out fast enough as Danny has continued to be beaten with shear and dry air...
On a quick side note everyone should keep an eye out on 94L... The NHC now has a medium potential for development... Most of the models develop 94L fairly quickly! What may become Erika at this time does not seem to be a threat for the US... I think it's going to develop too fast and get picked up by the TUTT... We will see though since it's still a long time out... Even if it doesn't get picked up by the TUTT the teleconnections show a very strong trough pushing through Japan... That would turn Erika north just like Bill and Danny... Since it's about 9 days out from any possible impact with the US, the upper air pattern from today/tomorrow should match up very well... Again right now I feel very strongly that what may be Erika gets pulled north and goes out to sea!!! If 94L develops quickly it will get pulled out quickly! If it develops late (sliding under the TUTT) then it will get pulled out to sea in a similar fashion to Hurricane Bill...
Tropical Tip: 9 out to 10 tropical cyclones that develop before 35 W longitude re-curve out to sea!!!
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