My thoughts on Erika still really haven't changed much... I will say it has moved more south and west than I first thought... The longer it does this the more the threat to the US... I feel strongly it will turn but it makes a big difference where Erika starts this turn... The more it continues west, the more likely it is to either graze or strike the US... I still feel that it misses the US but if it does strike, the Carolinas seems to be the main threat to me at this time... Key word though is seems... It's possible that Erika could feel the trough but not get completely picked up... Then a ridge builds in over the top and we have problems for Florida... Again I'm going to stick with my original forecast but this is NOT EASY by any means... Lets do a overview of the models...
The champ of the tropics, the European, has Erika harmlessly curving out to sea... I will say the European is a good bit west today compared to yesterday... While the European is the best model for the tropics in my personal opinion, it can and is wrong sometimes... Just look at Jimena... It thought is was going to curve out to sea and not hit the Baja of California... FAIL!!! The funny part is the GFS nailed Jimena which just goes to show you that even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes... Just messing!
The Canadian model shows a much different situation... It has an extremely powerful hurricane that does start to turn north but if it misses the US it's not going to miss by much... The Canadian has done well with initializing tropical cyclones this year but it has been bad with strengthening them way too much, way too fast...
The Japanese model shows a BAD situation for the US... It shows Erika not really affected at all by the trough, heading straight for south Florida... Is this possible, of course, but honestly I don't see it... Also look how the precipitation is stretched out from the center towards the north and northeast, so something is not right in my opinion... I think how you see the precipitation stretched north is a sign that Erika should head that way also...
The GFS looks like it's having some issues with Erika... In fairness I think we should give it a day or two to initialize properly but again it's having issues.. It's hard to tell but it tracks Erika through the Bahamas as a very weak tropical cyclone... From there it takes it into south Florida as a very weak storm... Again possible but I'm not seeing it that south at this time...
The GFDL shows a Category-3 hurricane moving northwest towards the US... Since it's already that north by 126 hours it "should" start a north and eventually a northeast turn... However I don't think it would miss by near as much as the European thinks but also not as close as the Canadian thinks... Again it's tough to GUESS what the model will do after the time you can visually see it... One thing I don't like is the fact that the ridge starts to build in over the top, so I wonder if it would continue that motion straight into the Carolinas??? Very possible...
The HWRF shows a BAD situation for the US... Like the GFDL it shows a powerful Category-3 hurricane... However unlike the GFDL that feels the trough and heads northwest, the HWRD feels the trough, heads northwest for awhile, then starts to bend back west as the ridge builds in over the top... Not a good track for Florida!!!
In the short term I don't see Erika strengthening a whole lot with it moving into shear and drier air... However I will say that this shear and dry air could mean bad news for the US... If it stays fairly weak like it is, then I think it will continue more west... The more west it moves the less likely it is to feel the trough and go out to sea without any landfalling threat to the US... I still believe Erika feels the trough enough to get pulled north and eventually pulled out completely... Even if the ridge builds in over the top I still think Erika gets pulled enough north that Florida is not a threat for landfall... At that point I would worry if I lived in the Carolinas...
I'll be the first to say that this is a VERY TOUGH forecast... Honestly though what is new with the tropics... Until you get an established storm were basically guessing a lot... That's why I think it's best to give it a few days before I write anything off... The track is HUGE during that time so let's keep a close eye on that... I don't care what ANY model says, real time observations is always the way to go!!! I also don't like how the ridge is forecasted to build in over the top... THIS IS NOT GOOD!!! If the trough misses Erika not only will it head towards the US but usually when you have a ridge building in over the top like this, conditions will be ripe for intensification... Now don't get me wrong I'm sticking with my original forecast but I would be stupid not to recognize how tough this is! Anywhere from Miami, FL to Cape Hatteras needs to watch this storm VERY CLOSELY!!!
I just wanted to throw it all out there so you can see how complex this is... I hate to say it, but only time will tell... More updates to come later!
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