I just wanted to post really quick about Erika and the tropics... The shear and dry air won and has basically killed Erika... This is great news as anything that makes its way into the Bahamas and especially the Gulf this year would be VERY bad news if the environment is right of course... The water is primed beyond belief... The good news is the deep tropics has pretty much shut down... The upswing (rising motion) of MJO is gone and now we see a lot of subsidence (sinking air) entering the Caribbean and the deep tropics... This doesn't mean we can't have any tropical development but again it's not favorable... If the US does get any strikes it looks to me like it will have to develop close to home for it to be a legitimate threat... Later in the season (late September-early October) things look like they will begin to open up in the Caribbean and the Gulf... I know Joe Bastardi using analogs is talking about similarities to 2002 when Lili snuck into the Gulf of Mexico... We'll see what happens???
I'm going to pretty much relax this weekend getting ready for my dad to come visit from Miami on Tuesday... I have to get the house in order, haha... So over the next week I'm not going to be posting a whole lot as I'll be hanging out with him... I will upload some more chase videos though, and tomorrow I'm going to try to put up my Hurricane Ike video from Galveston Island, TX... I hope everyone enjoys the holiday weekend and I'll be back if something does develop in the tropics...
2 comments:
Great explanation of lack of hurricane activity. I'm trying to learn as much as I can about the weather and this sort of blog is very helpful.
Thank you very much Ann... I appreciate that! I try my best to focus on real time events but also explain long range forecasting... I'm FAR from perfect but I always give it my best shot... If you check out some of my older posts I really hit on many of these long range tools and tropical tips I have learned over the years... Again not perfect my any means but they seems to work well... And I've been using them since 2002... Thanks again for your kind words!
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