Erika's is and has been doing some crazy unpredictable stuff today... Even last night I was more than aware that Erika had made it much more south and west than myself or any model originally thought! Also I pointed out how the dry air and shear may be bad news for the US... Well, unfortunately it's looking like that's all starting to come together... Weak storms tend to reform under the best convection and you are starting to see this with Erika... If you check out the visible imagery right now you will see the low-level center begin pulled south and southeast towards the best convection... Essentially Erika is reforming further south and east which is NOT good... If this trend continues and Erika makes it south of Hispanola, LOOK OUT GULF OF MEXICO!!!
HOPEFULLY at worst it hits Hispanola and gets destroyed but honestly I'm starting to worry about a Gulf threat now... The weaker Erika stays in the short term, the more I worry about a Gulf Landfall... I know I had it out to sea but it never could develop enough to get pulled out by the upper level winds... Plus now with it reforming more south and east, I really think that is VERY unlikely now... Weak storms don't feel the upper level winds like strong storms do... I have talked about this in depth in the past, but just look to Erika for a textbook real life example! Also unfortunately the overall environment seems better in the Caribbean... So if this track materializes it's more likely to strengthen in the long term, unless of course it slams into Hispanola... Tropical cyclones don't like Hispanola very much... Things are changing by the second and now unfortunately the Gulf needs to watch this closely... You got to love weather! It's always ever changing and unpredictable!!!
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