Tropical Storm Ida Nearing Land!!!

Ida continued to maintain near hurricane strength this afternoon... There was a nice convective burst this afternoon which helped keep Ida's strength up! Interesting how this burst occurred near the core of the tropical cyclone which is a clear indicator that it's STILL a warm cored system... The recon data shows this as well... Yes the outside of the hurricane is becoming extra tropical quickly but the CORE IS NOT!!! Just look at Lili in October 2002 that went from a strong Cat-4 to a Cat-1 in about a day! Similar things were going on with Lili as it was interacting with a trough and much cooler waters left by Isodore... Also there was a lot of shear and dry air ripping Lili apart! It was completely stretched out however again the core was still warm...

IMO if you rank the system because of processes/wind speeds within the CORE than you have to stay consistent is naming something extra-tropical because of these same processes going on within that core... Almost every hurricane becomes extra-tropical to some point before it makes landfall, especially along the northern gulf coast as the northern half is typically stretched out... Even look at a hurricane like Katrina... It was so HUGE that the northern half was definitely becoming extra-tropical before the eye made landfall as it was interacting with land and a strong trough... I know that is an extreme example but still it goes to my point about the core...

People can get WAY TOO caught up into the physics of the storm from time to time instead of using COMMON SENSE... If the physics were so good then what's the point of having meteorologist in the first place??? I mean if the physics are the gospel then why in the heck can't it get a 3 day forecast yet alone a 1 day forecast correct? Don't get me wrong, the physics are VERY IMPORTANT in assisting a meteorologist in becoming the best forecaster possible, but PLEASE USE COMMON SENSE!!! It's like still looking at a radar when you are on a nice supercell, and you can see everything with your own eyes!!! If you can see the wall cloud, then why in the heck would you still be dependent on the radar especially since the images are about 5/6 minutes old? Again COMMON SENSE meteorology... I feel very lucky/blessed to have been taught this applied/common sense meteorology by people like Doug, Justyn, Tim, Josh, and many others...

Tomorrow I'll grade my forecasts over the last 4/5 days... I'm very proud of my long range forecast but like always there is a lot of room for improvement!!! Especially in the short term! I'm my own worst critic because honestly the only person I'm trying to impress is myself... I don't mind criticism at all but I ask you to AT LEAST put out your own ideas first!!! If you put out a forecast and you want to criticize mine that's completely cool with me, but if you play arm chair forecaster then honestly I have very little time/respect for you... If you are not Man/Woman enough to put your own ideas out first then honestly save your breath! Ripping and reading every couple hours or saying you knew somethings after the fact doesn't make you a good forecaster... Try putting out your ideas 4/5 days out and see how well you do... Honestly that is the best way to learn and get better!!!

As of 9pm CT, Tropical Storm Ida now has 65mph sustained winds and a pressure of 997mb... However I seriously doubt we will see 65mph sustained winds ANYWHERE... With a weakening storm like this I would be surprised if we even see 60-65mph wind gusts! Landfall should occur near Baldwin County around 4am CT... I know it's not going to be bad at all, but still I hope everyone is safe tonight! Even the weakest storms can be dangerous if you're not careful!!!