Hurricane Rick is now a DANGEROUS Category-5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180mph (906mb)... I'll leave some images and the Public Advisory/Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center... It's so well done that I can't add much more! Dr. Lixion Avila is a great forecaster (Senior hurricane specialist) at the NHC!!!
Public Advisory:
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGESTEASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 1997...
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SEVERE HURRICANE.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES ...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES ...975 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.
RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN... AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED NEAR 180 MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB/26.75 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION... LOCATION...15.0N 105.9W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT.
$$ FORECASTER AVILA
Forecast Discussion:
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180236 TCDEP5 HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE HURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 7.0 AND 7.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4 DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE SECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER LINDA IN 1997.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS ALREADY REACHED...OR IS VERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.
RICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM MEXICO WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS RICK MOVING WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND AND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W 155 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W 160 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W 150 KT 36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W 140 KT 48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W 120 KT 72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W 40 KT...INLAND
$$ FORECASTER AVILA
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