For the last week all I'm seeing is 12z GFS MOS numbers for Starkville's low... Two nights ago 12z GFS MOS went 47 and that's what the NWS went... The low was 54 at GTR and 51 at Columbus... Last night the 12z GFS went 58 and that's what the NWS went... The low was 63 at GTR and 63 and Columbus... Tonight the 12z GFS went 44 and guess what, the NWS is going 44 tonight for Starkville... I'm not saying this to be critical, but if you keep blowing the low night after night maybe you should stop ripping 12z GFS MOS numbers and actually put some effort into the forecast... It's quite possible the lows are coming from a computer program pulling the GFS MOS numbers, but man I hope that's not the case! I'm not the smartest person in the world but I can at least recognize a common error of MOS... So I'll say this right now, there is NO WAY it gets down to 44 tonight especially when we had another 1/2 inch of rain last night! I'm going to say around 48 maybe 47 tonight which still may be too low...
Even if by some fluke it gets down to 44 (It won't) I still can't understand ripping 12z GFS numbers when you are getting burned night after night... I have a LOT of respect for the NWS and that's why I'm a little shocked by this... The funny/interesting thing is I couldn't be a part of the NWS because I don't have the math requirements... I understand it's a weed out process, but IMO I think this should be changed ASAP!!! It should be based off forecasting abilities and not the fact that I don't have DE... Doug Gillham who is one of the best forecasters in the country can't work for the NWS... That's just crazy to me...
3 comments:
Hey man... I brought this up with a couple of the forecasters today and told them that we have been too cold by going with guidance numbers...So I hope that it gets changed this evening. Why did they continue to go with GFS MOS...I have no idea. Before I read your post...I told them that I could only see it getting down to 48 or so tonight and not 44 as GFS MOS is calling for. So it good to see that we are on the same page. I'm with you bud...trust me. This is why we need Justyn to get into NWS too! See you in a couple weeks!
Jared thanks for the comment and yes I'm glad were on the same page also! Again I have a LOT of respect for the NWS and that's why I was surprised to see a constant 12z GFS MOS forecast that keeps busting day after day... I'm not criticizing ANYONE, and I'm also not saying I'm so smart, but I just wanted to point it out since it's an easy fix!
Justyn will be a GREAT find for any office that gets him! It would be like getting a hall of fame football player in the 6th or 7th round because we went to a small school or got hurt his senior year... Who ever gets Justyn is going to be one lucky office!!!
I know your not criticizing..but I do understand your frustration. As of this post they bumped it up to 46 per my recommendation but that still might be to low. I tried at least....and Justyn can just skip Q-school for the PGA and throw it down against Tiger when it comes to forecasting.
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