0z GFS Wins!!!

Well it looks like last nights 0z GFS is going to win the battle of rainfall accumulations... I really thought the HPC was on the right track especially because of the fact that this system absorbed what was hurricane Rick... However, this system is completely underachieving and honestly there is only one reason IMO as to why it's doing that... There is a lot of convection in the northern gulf coast which is blocking the inflow to the rest of Mississippi... The flow from the gulf has to go over this convection which means where not going to get the same low-level moisture/inflow we should have gotten... I would like to think without that convection in the gulf we would have achieved at least 2" of rain... When it didn't start to rain until almost 6pm and the rain was so spotty in nature, I new the higher amounts where "most likely" not going to happen...

This is actually good news because we've had PLENTY of rain in the last 5-6 weeks(20"+)... The HPC has backed off a lot, basically cutting it's rainfall in half (1.25") for us in Starkville... Also tonight's 0z NAM has backed off a lot, cutting it's rainfall all the way to .5" for us in Starkville... As I look at the radar I don't see us getting 1.25" of rain unless things really start to fill in... With the convection still in the northern gulf blocking the inflow to Mississippi I think now were looking at around .75"-1.00" with some areas getting a little more than an inch... Still a decent amount of rain but NO WHERE near the 2-3" I thought we could get... Hey that's forecasting and weather in general... If it was easy everyone would do it!