Happy Thanksgiving!!!

Today was a beautiful turkey day as our high reached 68 degrees...  Tonight doesn't look bad either as we should stay in the lower 50's...  There is a slight chance of some light rain tonight but it's pretty low...  The main rain should hold off until Friday afternoon...  I'm sorry I haven't posted the last two days but things are really busy for me right now....  I'm writing/creating the BMP/OMP distance learning severe weather class...  I'm having fun with it but it takes a lot of time and effort...  Because of that I might not be posting a lot over the next week or so....  I'll try my best but I just wanted to give a heads up...  Either way I just wanted to wish everyone a HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!!   I hope its been a great one!!! 

Tropical Activity in Late November?

Believe it or not you can and do get tropical activity in late November... People forget that the season doesn't end until November 30th... Also you can get hurricanes in December... It's rare but it has happened a few times before... Don't quote me, but I'm pretty sure there have been 5 December hurricanes in the last 120 years... This latest activity coincides with another upswing in the MJO... Or in other words the upward motion that travels around the globe has entered the Atlantic again... Funny it always seems to lead to tropical activity... I have said this a few times this year and I know some research has been done on MJO pulses and tropical activity, but I really think it's almost unbelievable how well it works.... Especially this year!!! Here is the discussion out of the NHC in Miami, FL on the current low risk...

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...  

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PERSISTS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...AND ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD...IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...
COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

$$  

FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

19 Degrees at GTR...

I don't know why this didn't post yesterday but it did hit 19 degrees at GTR the other night...  The temperatures were bouncing around in the lower 20's as the winds would go up to 5mph and then go back to calm...  Just before 5am the winds stayed clam for several hours and the temperature hit 19 degrees for two consecutive hours...  Definitely the coldest night of this fall season even though it could have been colder...   I really think if the winds would have stayed clam all night the low could have easily hit 14 or 15 degrees as the dewpoint got down to 12 degrees at one point...  Things have warmed up nicely since then as our high today got up to 55 degrees...  Late tonight we should see rain developing and continuing through Monday...  Some locations should see rainfall totals up to a 1/2 inch...  Hey I'll talk the rain over the bitter cold any day of the week...

Currently 30 Degrees!!!

Today was a cold day as the High only got up to 45 degrees at GTR...  Also the winds were steady out of North around 10mph with a gust of 18mph...  This only made it feel much worse!!!  Currently it is 30 degrees at GTR and the NWS is going with a low of 21 degrees...  It actually was 28 degrees a hour ago so I think the wind is the only thing keeping the temperatures from really dropping tonight...  The winds are still consistent out of the NE at 6mph...  If the winds don't go calm then I think we'll see a low around 22 or 23...  If the winds can go calm I think 19 degrees is very possible especially considering the dewpoint is down to 16 degrees...  So I do think the 21 degrees the NWS is going with should be fairly close...  Either way it's going to be a really cold night for us in Starkville...  Today's high was about 15 degrees below normal and the low will be near 20 degrees below normal...  BRRRR....

UCLA...

For those who don't really know me well I'm a HUGE UCLA basketball fan...  If you grew up in Los Angeles like me then the Lakers and UCLA are staples in your sports lives...  I just watched UCLA get beat by Michigan tonight...  No offense to Michigan, but if we're losing to them, we're in BIG TROUBLE this year...  I really think that if we make it to the sweet sixteen this year I would be surprised/happy...  It was hard to watch and is also very disappointing but I really can't complain because the future still looks very good for us...  We have the #1 rated recruiting class this year and next years class is starting to look really good also...  Plus we did make 3 straight final 4's...  Hey at least the Lakers are looking really good so far...

Sorry about the sports rant and the lack of weather tonight but I will say it's a cold windy night for us in Starkville, MS...  Currently the temperature is 39 degrees with north winds of 12mph gusting to 20mph...  The low should get into the upper 20's tonight with wind chills in the teens...  Tomorrow is also going to be cold with high in the mid 40's...  Plus with a north wind gusting up to 15-20 mph it's going to feel much colder...  Friday night is going to be down right cold with the low hitting 20 degrees if not even the upper teens at GTR...  I really wouldn't be surprised if few low temperature records are broken across the state...  This is way too cold for me, especially in November...  Remember our average high for late November in Starkville is around 60 degrees with a low near 39 degrees...  I'll post more on this cold shot tomorrow...

Storm Chaser Convention!!!

I sure would love to go to this conference one day!!!  They always have some of the best storm chasers and severe weather experts in the world...  Since it's in Denver, CO it has been tough to get there but I'm really thinking of going either this year or the next...  One of my good friends Jeff Haby lives near Denver so it would be cool to see him and go to the conference at the same time...  This year Dr. Steve Lyons is the key note speaker...  Also you have Dr. Greg Forbes, Dr. Howie Bluestein, Rich Thompson, Tim Marshall, and Jon Davies...  Again some of the best names in weather....  I'll post the link to their website for anyone that wants to check in out...  It basically has all the info you need if you want to go to the conference....  Also if you look in the bottom right hand corner of the website you will see a link that says "tornado forecasting"...  Its some forecasting tips from Dave Hoadley which is one of the pioneers of storm chasing for those that have never heard of him....  ENJOY!!!

Storm Chaser Convention

Already 30 Degrees!!!

Were already down to 30 degrees at GTR tonight and I think were going lower than 25 degrees tonight...  The NWS is going 26 degrees which I think is a little too high...  The dewpont is currently 21 degrees and with calm winds I wouldn't be surprised if we got to 23 degrees or so...  I will say it has been sitting at 30 for a couple of hours now which worries me a little...  Also it actually hit 28 degrees and then warmed back up to 30 degrees which is just weird to me...  The winds have at times been up to 5 mph so maybe that's the cause of the erratic temperatures...  I may be wrong but I think if the winds can stay clam we will be near 23 degrees tomorrow morning...  Way too cold for my liking!!!  Either way the hardest freeze of this fall season is already well on its way...

Cold...

Cold weather is on the way for us in Starkville...  Of course it's not cold for people from the north, but to me it's a little bit chilly for my liking...  A cold front has passed through the region and tomorrow looks to struggle to get to 50 degrees...  Lows should easily drop to 25 degrees as we will experience our hardest freeze of the season to this point...  Things will slowly warm up the rest of the week but tomorrow looks like a chilly one!  

On a quick side note I was off on low last night...  I really thought 32 was a lock and I also thought 29 or 30 was very possible...  The skies were clear and the winds were calm but the low only got down to 34 degrees...  I guess the air mass modified a little faster than I thought which makes sense with the high reaching 64 degrees today...  I also was off on that...  It just goes to show that even when things seem simple you can still be off...  That's the everyday challenge of forecasting!!!

Sorry about this being really short tonight but I have to finish a presentation on Storm Chasing...  For anyone that wants to come it will be tomorrow in Hilbun Hall room 340 at 12:30pm...  It should be a good time and I hope I can get people excited about the weather and storm chasing...  I'll be showing some cool pictures on Hurricane Ike and I'll also show some intense video on the Conway Springs wedge tornado...  Definitely the best tornado I have ever seen with my own eyes!

Areas of Frost Tonight...

With clear skies and calm winds I think frost is a good bet for Starkville, especially areas away from the city...  GTR should get to at least freezing if not even 29 or 30 degrees...  The official forecast from the NWS is 32 degrees, but if I was a betting man I would go with 29 degrees tonight...  Tomorrow it should warm up to near 60 degrees with it cooling back down on Tuesday to around 50 degrees for the high...  Tuesday night looks to be the coldest night of the weak with temperatures falling into the upper 20's...  I really wouldn't be surprised if GTR gets to near 25 degrees!!!  We will see as time will tell...

North Carolina Tornadoes...

Unfortunately early this morning a powerful supercell produced up to 7 tornadoes killing two in North Carolina...  It looks to me like the official total will be 3 confirmed tornadoes ranging from EF1 to EF3...  Sometimes on the SPC storm reports a tornado will be counted multiple times...  The supercell developed about 35 miles southeast of Raleigh, NC with the worst damage in Kenly, NC along the border of the Johnston/Wilson county lines...  With the tornadoes occurring between about 2:30am and 4:00am in the morning it's honestly amazing more people were not hurt or killed...  This is typical of many killer tornadoes in the south as they usually occur late at night when people are asleep...  So even with proper warning from the NWS you won't know it's coming unless a tornado siren is sounded...  

Unfortunately not everyone hears those sirens and really just goes to show how important weather radios are...  Most everyone has a smoke alarm yet many don't have a weather radio, even in the Deep South where nighttime tornadoes are common...  Hopefully you will never use your smoke alarm but I promise you that everyone would use their weather radio multiple times in a few years, especially in the Deep South!  If you don't have a weather radio I HIGHLY recommend getting one to protect you and you family!!!  Here is a couple of good news stories on today's tornadoes in North Carolina...  Also I have linked a couple sites talking about a very famous tornado outbreak that hammered North Carolina and South Carolina on March 28th 1984...  Sadly 57 people lost their lives that night!!!

10/15/08 North Carolina Tornadoes 1

10/15/08 North Carolina Tornadoes 2

3/28/84 Carolina's Tornado Outbreak 1

3/28/84 Carolina's Tornado Outbreak 2

The Great Plains...

Today I found myself sitting in my office thinking about this years storm chase in the Great Plains... Anybody that knows me understands that my true passion in life is storm chasing... My favorite is hurricanes but I still love tornadoes very much... The challenge of the chase is what really intrigues me the most... It's not like going after a hurricane where usually it's fairly hard to miss... With tornadoes you really need to be on your game with forecasting... Of courses there is luck involved but if you are a great forecaster it will especially show in the Great Plains...

Unfortunately a lot of people rely heavily on the SPC which is ok if that's the way you want to forecast/chase... The thing is the SPC is constantly changing their forecast, so if you're not one step ahead you will fail most of the time... Don't get me wrong, the SPC is great, but I have always believed that I would rather go down because I blew my own forecast then to rely on the SPC's forecast... Sometimes I have been burned bad by it but there have been plenty of times where it played off well...

This year I'm going to be heading Amarillo, TX to chase with my buddy Todd Beal... Many others from LDCT will be there as well like Justyn Jackson, Josh Johnson, and Chris Bell... Hopefully a few others will also be able to make it! It will be good to chase with some of my best friends again... I miss chasing where you go as hardcore as possible for a few days to come back and relax for a few days... No restrictions, deadlines, and schedules... Just all out chasing where you hold NOTHING back... I can't wait because it's been too long since I chased like that... It's time to go hardcore again like we did in 2004... I look forward to the challenge!!! LDCT4LIFE

Friday Rain...

Unfortunately it looks like a rainy Friday for us in Starkville, MS tomorrow...  The good news is the rain should hold off until around dark...  The heaviest rain should be between 0z and 6z tomorrow with the rain ending by dawn Saturday...  Starkville should see between a quarter and a half inch of rain, however northern Alabama, northern Georgia, and eastern Tennessee could see rain amounts over 3 inches...  After the cold front passes tomorrow night things are going to get cold for Saturday and Sunday...  For Saturday expect highs in the lower 50's and for Sunday expect highs in the mid 50's...  The lows on both Saturday and Sunday should be near freezing even though I think Sunday night has a much better chance to go freezing or below because of clear skies and calm winds...  If you're heading to Tuscaloosa for the game expect a dreary cold fall day...  Trust me the cloudy skies and gusty winds out of the NW will makes temperatures feel much colder than they actually are... 

Great Post!!!

I want everyone to check out a great severe weather post written by Jon Davies...  For those of you who haven't heard of Jon, he is not only a great storm chaser but also in my opinion one of the best severe weather researchers in the business...  Jon's research on low-level thermodynamics has become the wave of the future for tornado forecasting...  I know I use it all the time when I chase tornadoes...  On top of all of this Jon is a great person...  He has always been very nice to me and I feel very lucky to have seen my first tornado with him on May 12th 2004...  We saw two small tornadoes in Sawyer, KS and a beautiful tornado in Attica, KS which we got fairly close too...  Again I highly recommend everyone to read his post!  Also I highly recommend everyone to check out his website if you want to learn a lot about severe weather and tornado forecasting!!!

Jon Davies Website

Jon Davies Severe Weather Post

Fail Foliage...

I want everyone to check out some AWESOME Mississippi Fall Foliage pictures Justyn Jackson took at the Noxubee Wildlife Refuge yesterday...  For anybody that lives in Mississippi I highly recommend going to the Wildlife Refuge a few times a year...  It really is a cool place!!!

Justyn's Fall Foliage Pictures

6-Years Ago...

6 years ago today was the largest November outbreak in recorded US history...  I remember the day very well as the High Risk covered a HUGE area...  A lot people may not realize this but Alabama has more tornadoes in November than any other month of the year...  There is a Dixie Alley and the threat is very high for us in the Deep South during the late Fall...  If you would like to read more about Dixie Alley I HIGHLY recommend everyone to read a very interesting paper by Alan Gerard (NWS Jackson, MS)...  Here is the Powerpoint presentation...

Also here is something else I came across today...  A detailed account of the day by Justyn Jackson...  I hope he doesn't mind me posting this, but it's very well written and basically hits on all the main points of the day...  It was a big chase for LDCT, as we were basically sandwiched between 3 tornadoes that night including a F-3 that hit the University for Women in Columbus, MS...  Honestly we got lucky!  I have always said that chasing in the Great Plains is very easy compared to chasing in the Deep South...  Usually it's HP supercells at night in the pine woods...  It's a totally different ball game and if you're not experienced on how to chase in Deep South you can easily die...  I have grown up a lot as a storm chaser since that crazy night and I know today I wouldn't have done half the stuff we did that night...  You live and learn!!!

If November 9th was any indication of how November 10th would turn out, this day would be remembered for a long time. A supercell formed in eastern Arkansas late on Saturday night (11/9) and moved east-northeast into western Tennessee. It would produce multiple tornadoes including damage in Homholdt, TN to a nursing home. The storm system slammed the western United States a few days prior producing heavy rains and battering waves along the Pacific coast. The SPC outlooked much of the southeast in a slight risk of severe weather on the Day 2 Outlook. However, John and I anxiously awaited the new Day 1 Outlook which would tell us what to expect for our chase. Needless to say, we were in utter amazement as we stared at the screen. A HIGH risk had been posted for northeast Mississippi, northern Alabama, middle Tennessee, and south-central Kentucky! High risks are very rare; only a couple of issued every year. This was the first high risk that I had seen in the southeast in about two years. I immediately began calling the team and getting everyone together for a chase. Chris and Greg were definitely committed; John was committed. The only problem was Todd. He was in Biloxi - almost five hours away. There was no way I could not let him know so I called him to explain the situation, and he told me he was getting waking up his mom and coming back to Starkville! I gave Josh and call and we analyzed everything and came to the conclusion that northwest Alabama would not be a bad spot. As I was going to bed around 2:00 a.m., Todd instant messaged me and said he was leaving and would call me about 7:00 a.m. when he got back to campus.

Just after 7:00, my alarm goes off and Todd gives me a ring. I check out the latest SPC outlook and they have shifted the high risk farther to the northwest; extreme northeast Mississippi was still under the gun. I checked out some more data and it was readily apparent that a high risk was warranted. Strong southerly winds in excess of 20 mph were streaming across much of Mississippi in the early morning hours. Dew points were well into the 60s and temperatures were climbing out of the 60s and into the 70s. I decided to step out on the balcony and I immediately noticed two things: sun and strong winds. I thought back to December 16, 2000 (F4 tornado in Tuscaloosa), and I thought to myself that it indeed felt eerily similar to that unfortunate day. While I ate breakfast, I also watched a piece of vinyl siding get torn from the apartment across the street from us due to the strong winds! After analyzing morning upper-air data, a low-level jet would be present (over 50 knots) when storms began erupting and we would be in the favored right-rear quadrant of a jet max that was zipping through Oklahoma. The only doubt was how much instability would be present for the storms? An axis of 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE values was centered across much of central Mississippi and they were slowly moving north and east. After about 9:30 I decided to give Greg a call and explain what was going on. John and I looked at more mesoanalysis data and thought it still looked like an excellent chase day. I then gave Tim Wallace a call around 10:30 and we talked about the situation. He was torn whether to go chasing or run radar. However, he liked the idea of hanging around Starkville to see the storms develop. The 1630Z SPC outlook was a little late in getting out, but it shifted the high risk farther back to the southwest. Now, we were well in the risk area and Tim's forecast started sounding really good. I decided to call Josh and let him know that his viewing area in Meridian was in the high risk. We discussed the situation and still agreed that northwest Alabama looked like the favored area. Greg came over just after 11:00 and we decided to get some lunch at Taco Bell and head up to the lab. At lunch Todd, John, Greg, and I decided that Tupelo would be our destination point. We called Chris and told him we would meet him at his apartment in Columbus around noon. After lunch we went up to the lab and saw a few people up there checking everything out. After more discussing, Tim convinced us to stay around here and possibly head west in an hour or so. We then called Chris back and told him to meet us in the lab. For the next couple of hours, satellite images showed the cap was holding strong but instability was increasing over much of the state. CAPE values exceeded 1500 J/kg in east-central Mississippi and were approaching 2000 J/kg in the central part of the state. We put all of our minds together and came up with this: the dynamics would be much greater across northern Mississippi and the cap would break there first. With that said, the lab sent us to Batesville? so we packed everything up and headed west on Highway 82 just after 2:30 p.m.

We received a phone call from the other group saying that they were going to Pontotoc and that we should get north. We barely made the exit, but we thought this was a logical decision. We finally met each other in Pontotoc just after 4:30 at a McDonald's. The other group got a call from the lab saying the cap showed signs of breaking northwest Mississippi, but they were concerned with new storms developing in central Mississippi. We sat around for about 30 minutes discussing fantasy football, eating, and waiting for the cap to break in our area. Just after 5:00 p.m., we noticed towers going up to the south of us and lightning was evident in a couple of storms. The lab then called and told us to head south because storms were growing stronger. We then got on Highway 78 east and then took Alternate Highway 45 south back to Starkville. Driving back, lightning was becoming increasingly more intense in almost every quadrant. We heard of severe thunderstorm warnings for Oktibehha (Starkville) and Lowndes (Columbus) Counties. We decided to give Josh a call since the lab was not calling frequently enough. He told us storms were growing stronger just south of us and also northwest of us! He also said that it was going to be a long night for him with frequent cut-ins. Not long after this, we heard of a tornado warning for Lowndes County. Business was sure enough picking up in a hurry! Soon after that, tornado warnings were issued for Oktibehha and Winston Counties. We finally made it back to Highway 82 and headed west towards Starkville. While Starkville was still under a warning, we decided to park on the side of the road and get a good vantage point for spotting. It was impossible with torrential rain in the dark of night. I called Josh and asked for his opinion on where we should go; he recommended going down Alternate Highway 45 towards Macon. We then turned around and headed east on 82 towards the airport. When we got to the airport, we saw more rain, lightning, and even some small hail. However, the group called and told us we were under a tornado warning (Lowndes County again). We then headed south on Highway 45 to see if we could get a clear opening to see anything. Still we encountered very heavy rain, but there were occassional spurts of light rain. I called Josh back and he told us the storm was off to the west of us but showed indications of a hook. He told me a storm moving through Columbus showed very good signs of rotation. We later heard that Columbus was indeed hit by a tornado. Chris was concerned because his fiancee was close to the damage area, but he got in touch with her and she was fine. We kept driving up and down Highway 45 for some reason? We finally were told to keep going south towards Macon. Just before we got to Macon, we pulled off the road and watched a storm with a wall cloud. I did notice that it felt like we were feeling rear flank downdraft winds because they were warm and moist. We relayed our report to the lab and they told us to stay where we were. About this time, Robert noticed a power flash just to our north but we didn't really notice anything about this. The lights at a nightclub also flashed. The wall cloud we were watching soon dissipated and the outflow air became quite chilly. We later found out that the power flash may have been a tornado that stayed on the ground for 46 miles (rated only as an F1)! We somehow missed it by less than 2 miles. Josh told us more storms continued to build back to the southwest but nothing that looked overly impressive. We kept riding around aimlessly for some reason and listened to James Spann (ABC 33/40 Birmingham) on the radio do live coverage of the Carbon Hill, AL tornado. It sounded like the tornado caused massive damage in that area (that tornado was later rated at F3). With the storms dissipating, we decided to go to Columbus with Chris and see how bad the damage was. As we were going back to Columbus, we ran across a turned over truck and we decided to turn around and see if anyway was in it. Right as we got to the truck, police cars came up and and we saw the man who was in the truck. He was alright but shaken up. It appeared as though a tornado went across this area because a wide swath of debris was on the road along with many snapped trees. We later learned this was the tornado that struck Crawford and claimed the only fatality in Mississippi. When we got close to his apartment, we saw a neighborhood that looked like a tornado had gone through. Sure enough, trees were uprooted everywhere and on top of a few houses. I guessed if that was the only damage, the tornado would probably be rated as an F1; Mississippi University for Women a couple of miles away suffered the worst damage with numerous buildings damaged on campus. Chris and Greg had a Thermo exam the next day, but he had no power. However, Mike said there were no "ifs" "ands" or "buts" about it, they would have the test at 8:00 a.m. That sure was a nice gesture towards someone who didn't have power.

I will remember this outbreak for as long as I live. A high risk stretched from Ohio down to southern Mississippi! Over 80 tornadoes were reported and damage was the most severe in eastern Tennessee and north-central Alabama. The models did a decent job forecasting this event. The GFS was consistent run to run about 8-9 days out. However, it did back off the risk for a couple of runs about five days before the event and numerous meteorologists discounted the storm. Many thanks go to Josh Johnson for his help. This may have been one of my most frustrating chases, but we could have possibly been killed if not for his help.

Justyn Jackson
12/17/02

Quick Update on Hurricane Paloma...

Paloma made landfall on Santa Cruz Del Sur, Cuba as a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph and a central pressure of 968mb...  Tragically this is the third major hurricane to strike the coast of Cuba this year...  The other two being Hurricane Gustav which hit western Cuba as a strong Cat-4 and Hurricane Ike which hit eastern Cuba as a weak Cat-4...  My thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Cuba tonight!

Major Hurricane Paloma...

Hurricane Paloma is now a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph... The central pressure is down to 958mb with a movement towards the NE at 8mph... This is well over a 1mb per hour drop which is about what I expected.... It really is similar to Omar in the rapid deepening... Unfortunately for Cuba Paloma is heading straight towards the central part of the country... There is still a 12 hour or so window for strengthening, as Paloma could become a Category 4 hurricane... Thankfully it looks like wind shear will increase dramatically in about 12-24 hours to near 30 knots...

While Paloma will still be a powerful hurricane at landfall at least it looks like it will be weakening as it comes ashore... This will make a big difference when it comes to fulfilling the max wind potential for Cuba... As I have talked before in older tropical posts, a strengthening hurricane will verify much higher surface winds than a weakening hurricane... It has to do with updraft strength and the ability to mix the faster winds aloft to the surface... While this is good news for Cuba this is not to say that Paloma won't be a powerful and deadly hurricane... Even if it weakens to a Cat-2, Paloma will still cause big problems for Cuba... The good news is it could have been worse... If it would have been 24 hours faster you would be looking at a rapidly strengthening major hurricane at landfall... Landfall should be early Saturday morning...

Hurricane Paloma...

Unfortunately for Cuba another hurricane is heading their way...  Also unfortunately the GFDL and the HWRF both show Paloma becoming a major hurricane before landfall in central Cuba...  I hope Paloma doesn't get that strong but it honestly looks like it will...  Warm ocean waters and very little shear equals big problems for the country of Cuba...  This will be the third major hurricane to strike the country of Cube this year as I think it's very similar to Omar in the way it will rapidly deepen before landfall...  Also it's interesting that we got one more tropical cyclone out of a rising motion pulse of the MJO...  I really think more research should be done on the MJO because it's obviously a great indicator of possible tropical development...  Of course it's not a perfect indicator because many other things have to come together but I do find it amazing how the MJO seems to be a match for the gasoline when it comes to tropical development...

Current Observation for Hurricane Paloma:

17.5 N   81.8W

Movement towards the North at 8mph

Central Pressure of 987mb

Maximum sustained winds of 75mph

Tropical Depression 17...

Here is a great discussion out of the NHC in Miami, FL...  TD #17 will become Tropical Storm Paloma by tomorrow morning...

NHC Discussion

NHC Advisory

Barack Obama is President of the United States of America...

While I didn't vote for him this is still a historic night for our country!  It really is amazing to see how far our country has come, especially in the last 50 years...  I just hope and pray we UNITE as a country and work together to help the many problems we have...  Things are not good right now and if we're not careful they will get much worse before they get better...  This is the time for bipartisanship!  We need to move forward together as a country, remembering that the United States of America should always come first...  

Very Disappointed!!!

Sometimes I feel really stupid when it comes to weather and forecasting...  Lets take the forecast contest and Green Bay Wisconsin...  Originally I was thinking 74/54...  Then I went to the discussion and the temperature dropped from 54 to 48 in one hour...  I knew it was just a mesoscale effect from the lake breeze but for some stupid reason it scared me...  We forecast from 6z to 6z so again for some STUPID reason I thought the fog would hold on and keep the temperatures low...  The funny part is I even said in the discussion that the synoptic flow from warm air advection would take over quickly after the sun went down...  Oh well I'm just really frustrated with myself right now and I can't even tell you how dumb that was on my part...  I think the lesson learned is don't ever get scared, stick to your instincts, and most of the time don't be influenced by others...  That really was probably the dumbest things I have done in my 7 years of the contest and it looks like it will cost me 8 points!!!  I promise that will never happen again...  

Getting Better...

Sorry I haven't posted the last two days but I have been VERY sick...  Finally I'm starting to feel better and I'll have a detailed post out tomorrow...  The next 3 days looks near perfect with highs in the mid to upper 70's and lows in the mid to upper 40's...  Honestly I can't wait because to me that's about as perfect as you can get when it comes to the weather...  Thursday looks interesting as thunderstorms are on the way...  I don't know if we are looking at severe thunderstorms because the instability seems to be lacking with dewpoints struggling to get to 55-60 degrees F...  Also the best dynamics are well north of us in Starkville....  However it definitely needs to be watched as things can change quickly...  Either way it looks like rain/t'storms is on the way for Thursday...  I'll be back tomorrow!!!