Very Disappointed!!!

Sometimes I feel really stupid when it comes to weather and forecasting...  Lets take the forecast contest and Green Bay Wisconsin...  Originally I was thinking 74/54...  Then I went to the discussion and the temperature dropped from 54 to 48 in one hour...  I knew it was just a mesoscale effect from the lake breeze but for some stupid reason it scared me...  We forecast from 6z to 6z so again for some STUPID reason I thought the fog would hold on and keep the temperatures low...  The funny part is I even said in the discussion that the synoptic flow from warm air advection would take over quickly after the sun went down...  Oh well I'm just really frustrated with myself right now and I can't even tell you how dumb that was on my part...  I think the lesson learned is don't ever get scared, stick to your instincts, and most of the time don't be influenced by others...  That really was probably the dumbest things I have done in my 7 years of the contest and it looks like it will cost me 8 points!!!  I promise that will never happen again...