Each like each recon gets worse and worse here. I try to calm down, then another comes in that is stronger evidence
I would love to be a fly on the wall at the hurricane center. I wonder if anyone in there is speaking up on this. How does this deepen moving northwest at 32 north. When do you ever see that. It has to be warm core, since it is moving now, with the outflow over it, in a way where it is separate from all its cold core origins. Think about it folks, if its moving northwest where is the baroclinicity. Its not at the center, because its warm core. ITS DOWN TO 991 MB. How can they justify this?
I have been reading blogs saying okay its subtropical. NO NOT ANYMORE. Even the subtropical get named. There is no doubt left. Its actually tightening coming to the coast, as tropical cyclones hitting at 90 degrees do. Its down to 29.25, which can support hurricane in the Saffir Simpson scale.
This will be rated a 2.5 on the impact, and also be counted as a storm overall. Now remember, I am over the forecasted total impact and we only had 13 storms total, so with Kyle named, the actual total I am grading is now 12. Given the idea there should be 3 or 4 more, that is going to mean the number forecast may be better for other people in my book than mine. So its not like this is something I need, though plainly it is the second tropical cyclone hit on the carolina zones.
But where is the guts on anyone in Miami. is there no one there that would say, look at the recon, look at the pics, look at the radar, look at the obs. I cant believe it. How can voices be silenced like this? I hope someone is reading in there. Your duty is to accurately portray the season, and to keep the public informed with accurate, professional, objective assessments. It is not to pretend you have some magic power to decide what is and is not a storm. Wake up There is a 7 degree C rise across the center now I. 12 C / 1511 m J. 19 C / 1525 m K. 12 C / NA Is there no one there that sees this. Is there no one there that says, wait, lets be accurate and right. This is unreal.
This cant be about the weather folks, It is well beyond that,. There is something going on there that cant be weather related and that is plain wrong.
You missed it, admit it. You had nothing yesterday morning and tropical storm with a 991 mb pressure is nailing the Carolinas., You can say anything you want to the public, but it is simply a lie and the data shows it.
And by the way, while I am at it, why are wasting taxpayer money and air force time flying recons into systems that are non tropical 3 hours from landfall? You have no intention of doing the right thing since all doubt was removed with the first recon anyway,. But now its absurd.
You know these arent accusations, they are statements of fact that the weather and data you see clearly show.
What is baffling is this:Is there no one at TPC that will stand for what is right in the face of the facts of this storm vs the long list of storms we have seen/ You have named an open system at 1001 that has no radar presentation ( by the way I agree with you naming it) If you had this forecasted 5 days ago to develop, are you trying to say you would not have it named now?
You want the confidence of the American people and the met community, including me. You want me to follow your words, but why should we when things like this occur, or Humberto, or Charley, or Alex or Cincdy or Katrina with its 12 mph movement listed as 6 at a critical time. its one thing after another. No consistency, and a seeming disdain for anyone who dare use what is now over 30 years of active hurricane forecasting as a basis of knowledge about these things.
I have listed in one fashion after another the arguments. I have shown how this is warm core, should be named, and when stacked against history, do you think that this would not have been called a tropical storm? What next, you going in and stripping storms that you werent around for of their status ( heh that is going on with climate revisionism) If this were 1938, that storm would have been downgraded east of Hatteras
Its not about the weather..its about right and wrong
I must say I am surprised. In 2003, I was very pleased to see how the Houston WS office state without any qualms their assessment of Claudette. I knew the new director came from that office and thought that the politics that was made public in the National Hurricane center assessment report would be ended. i fear not. I have the copy of that report, and it confirms some of the things that I thought about what goes on. But I thought this would be a new day and age ( by the way, the Miami herald did a story on this) I can see by the handling of this system, that is not the case. You can be the judge yourself given what you have seen.
I am absolutely flabbergasted, given all in front of us, that there is denial of what is the truth, and the fact that other mets on the public air waves seem to just march happily along without giving any thought to standing for right or wrong. I just cant do that. I wish I could, but I cant. This is not a run of the mill non tropical coastal low. when have you ever seen a 991 center with an eye causing 60 mph winds moving northwest from off the gulfstream in September that wasnt tropical. You had tropical storm warnings for Cristobal, and rightly so., Are you trying to say this storm is not stronger, better organized and not in the category of Cristobal. or Eduoard...or even Fay, it actually looks better organixed than Fay off Florida.. a tighter eye and just as low pressure.
I do want to remind the reader, that there have been several instances over the years where stands I have taken have been proven right some 6 months later in post storm analysis's, and changed, but of course by then, the memory had faded and the public got a different message at the time, than what I was saying,. even when proven right. ciao for now ***
THURSDAY 8:30 PM
KYLE VS THE STORM WITH NO NAME, ACTUAL RECON DATA
For the record, Karen in Oct. 2001 was a bigger fiasco. The classic with it was as it moved away, after hammering the island with wind gusts over 100 while TPC kept saying it was non-tropical, they upgraded it to a hurricane and advised residents of Bermuda to stay in touch, a tough thing to do since there was no power on the island.
So that rates over the non-naming of this as a denial. But at least they did name it after.
Here is the side by side...
D. 59 kt wind with un-named system D. NA wind with KYLE
E. 211 deg 17 nm distance and direction from center: 17 miles ssw E. NA Kyle NA
F. 334 deg 32 kt/G. 220 deg 68 nm Flight level, not named wind dir, speed, distance F. 346 DEG 38 KT, G. 274 DEG 12 NM Same ob for Kyle
H. 993 mb pressure not named H. EXTRAP 994 MB pressure Kyle
comments unnamed P. AF303 03GGA LOW OB 05 MAX FL WIND 32 KT SW QUAD 22:58:20Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 58 KT NE QUAD 23:31:30Z
comments kyle
P. NOAA2 0911A KYLE OB 07 AL112008 MAX FL WIND 38 KTS SW QUAD 2308Z MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 55 KTS NE QUAD 2328Z VERY POOR RADAR PRESENTATION NO BANDING
Here is my question... How can you possibly name one, and not the other? The unnamed one has stronger flight level and surface winds and a lower pressure and is making landfall on the U.S. coast. Why send a plane there if you aren't going to respond to the data?
You make the call folks, you can see it side by side and decide if this is meteorology or some kind of agenda on the part of TPC. I can come to no other conclusion given the data. Look at the radar... when do you see that in a non-tropical cyclone in September?
Ciao for now."
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