Quick Update on Hurricane Paloma...

Paloma made landfall on Santa Cruz Del Sur, Cuba as a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph and a central pressure of 968mb...  Tragically this is the third major hurricane to strike the coast of Cuba this year...  The other two being Hurricane Gustav which hit western Cuba as a strong Cat-4 and Hurricane Ike which hit eastern Cuba as a weak Cat-4...  My thoughts and prayers go out to the people of Cuba tonight!

Major Hurricane Paloma...

Hurricane Paloma is now a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph... The central pressure is down to 958mb with a movement towards the NE at 8mph... This is well over a 1mb per hour drop which is about what I expected.... It really is similar to Omar in the rapid deepening... Unfortunately for Cuba Paloma is heading straight towards the central part of the country... There is still a 12 hour or so window for strengthening, as Paloma could become a Category 4 hurricane... Thankfully it looks like wind shear will increase dramatically in about 12-24 hours to near 30 knots...

While Paloma will still be a powerful hurricane at landfall at least it looks like it will be weakening as it comes ashore... This will make a big difference when it comes to fulfilling the max wind potential for Cuba... As I have talked before in older tropical posts, a strengthening hurricane will verify much higher surface winds than a weakening hurricane... It has to do with updraft strength and the ability to mix the faster winds aloft to the surface... While this is good news for Cuba this is not to say that Paloma won't be a powerful and deadly hurricane... Even if it weakens to a Cat-2, Paloma will still cause big problems for Cuba... The good news is it could have been worse... If it would have been 24 hours faster you would be looking at a rapidly strengthening major hurricane at landfall... Landfall should be early Saturday morning...

Hurricane Paloma...

Unfortunately for Cuba another hurricane is heading their way...  Also unfortunately the GFDL and the HWRF both show Paloma becoming a major hurricane before landfall in central Cuba...  I hope Paloma doesn't get that strong but it honestly looks like it will...  Warm ocean waters and very little shear equals big problems for the country of Cuba...  This will be the third major hurricane to strike the country of Cube this year as I think it's very similar to Omar in the way it will rapidly deepen before landfall...  Also it's interesting that we got one more tropical cyclone out of a rising motion pulse of the MJO...  I really think more research should be done on the MJO because it's obviously a great indicator of possible tropical development...  Of course it's not a perfect indicator because many other things have to come together but I do find it amazing how the MJO seems to be a match for the gasoline when it comes to tropical development...

Current Observation for Hurricane Paloma:

17.5 N   81.8W

Movement towards the North at 8mph

Central Pressure of 987mb

Maximum sustained winds of 75mph

Tropical Depression 17...

Here is a great discussion out of the NHC in Miami, FL...  TD #17 will become Tropical Storm Paloma by tomorrow morning...

NHC Discussion

NHC Advisory

Barack Obama is President of the United States of America...

While I didn't vote for him this is still a historic night for our country!  It really is amazing to see how far our country has come, especially in the last 50 years...  I just hope and pray we UNITE as a country and work together to help the many problems we have...  Things are not good right now and if we're not careful they will get much worse before they get better...  This is the time for bipartisanship!  We need to move forward together as a country, remembering that the United States of America should always come first...  

Very Disappointed!!!

Sometimes I feel really stupid when it comes to weather and forecasting...  Lets take the forecast contest and Green Bay Wisconsin...  Originally I was thinking 74/54...  Then I went to the discussion and the temperature dropped from 54 to 48 in one hour...  I knew it was just a mesoscale effect from the lake breeze but for some stupid reason it scared me...  We forecast from 6z to 6z so again for some STUPID reason I thought the fog would hold on and keep the temperatures low...  The funny part is I even said in the discussion that the synoptic flow from warm air advection would take over quickly after the sun went down...  Oh well I'm just really frustrated with myself right now and I can't even tell you how dumb that was on my part...  I think the lesson learned is don't ever get scared, stick to your instincts, and most of the time don't be influenced by others...  That really was probably the dumbest things I have done in my 7 years of the contest and it looks like it will cost me 8 points!!!  I promise that will never happen again...  

Getting Better...

Sorry I haven't posted the last two days but I have been VERY sick...  Finally I'm starting to feel better and I'll have a detailed post out tomorrow...  The next 3 days looks near perfect with highs in the mid to upper 70's and lows in the mid to upper 40's...  Honestly I can't wait because to me that's about as perfect as you can get when it comes to the weather...  Thursday looks interesting as thunderstorms are on the way...  I don't know if we are looking at severe thunderstorms because the instability seems to be lacking with dewpoints struggling to get to 55-60 degrees F...  Also the best dynamics are well north of us in Starkville....  However it definitely needs to be watched as things can change quickly...  Either way it looks like rain/t'storms is on the way for Thursday...  I'll be back tomorrow!!!