Best of Hurricane Video!!!

Sorry it took me so long, but I finally put up the Best of Hurricane Video on youtube... It's from Hurricanes Ike, Rita, and Katrina... Honestly words can't do it justice so I'll just let people watch... My thoughts and prayers ALWAYS go out to ALL the people affected by these catastrophic hurricanes... Especially the people along the Mississippi Coast which really hit close to the heart for me! There are 3 maybe 4 cuss words, so you have been warned...

© Greg Nordstrom 2005/2008

ANY USE OF THIS VIDEO WITHOUT PERMISSION FROM GREG NORDSTROM IS PROHIBITED AND WILL BE PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW...

The "Canes" hit land...

The "Canes" season came to an end Thursday night with another tough loss to "USA"... We were up 10-6 with less than 2 minutes left when they hit our defense for a long TD pass... Actually the pass was short but the run was about 75 yards... They're a good team and unfortunately they got us at the very end once again... We probably "should" have won, but we didn't and there are no excuses in life... It was a great run though for the "Canes"... I really enjoyed the last 3 years but that was the last intramural game I'll ever play... I'm 29 almost 30, so it's time for me to give it up! Plus honestly my body can't take it like it used to... 3 games in a row was starting to break me down... However, it was a lot of fun and I'm proud of all we accomplished as a team over the last 3 years...

I'll have the best of hurricane video out next week! Sorry I haven't been posting, but with work and intramurals things have been a little busy... Plus honestly there hasn't been a whole lot to talk about... I hope everyone has a great weekend!!!

Canes - 48, Who - 0

Tonight we beat the "Who" 48-0 to make it to the semifinals for the third straight year... To be fair the "Who" were missing some players but we still played very well... Unfortunately I did throw an INT tonight but at the same time I threw 5 TD's... I'm still mad about the INT though... We play "USA" tomorrow at 10pm... They beat us earlier this year 20-19... We played the worst half I've ever seen in my life and were down 20-0 at halftime... Then we started to play very well and just barely lost... I threw a long TD to Ian but we couldn't get the extra point near the end of the game... This is going to be a GREAT game as we're both evenly matched... Everyone is going to have to play well as a team to win... If we can get past "USA" tomorrow we'll play in the championship on Sunday night! Last year we lost in the finals 9-6, so I really want another shot at the title... We have the talent, we just need a good team effort... If we play as a team, and play HARD the entire game, then I like our chances!!!

Canes - 24, CSA - 0...

Tonight was the first round of the playoffs as the Canes beat CSA 24-0... I threw 4 TD passes, 3 to Henry Long and 1 to Ian McLaughlin!!! It was a great overall team effort as our defense shut CSA down... They may have had 2 first downs all night as Ian also added 3 INT's... Tomorrow we're most likely playing the "Who"... This should be a tough matchup but as long as we continue to play as a team I like our chances... If you would like to come watch tomorrow, we're playing at 10pm at the intramural fields... All are welcome!!!

Ida Grades...

I'm going to keep this short:

LONG RANGE: A/A+

Again I'm my own biggest critic so I don't give myself this grade lightly... Calling that Ida would make it close to a Category-3 hurricane 4/5 days out when the NHC had it at a max of 45 knots is pretty darn good/lucky... Also the NHC never had Ida making landfall which I did have 4/5 days out... The biggest thing was predicting that Ida would eventually become one heck of a "Nor Easter" days out was the clincher! Again not to pick on the NHC but it had Ida stalling near the Florida Panhandle and NEVER had Ida making her way up the eastern seaboard... Of course there is always A LOT of luck involved with forecasting, especially in the long range, but this was probably one the the better long range forecast I have ever put out... Trust me I've had plenty of bad ones also!

SHORT TERM: B

The only reason why I'm not going to give myself an A is because I did think Ida would be 70/75mph at landfall... It died quickly just before landfall but I really did believe it WOULDN'T become extra-tropical which it didn't... However while I got that correct and also had Ida phasing into a strong "Nor Easter" becoming historic because of the duration, I still got the wind speeds at landfall wrong! So again the best I can give myself is a B for that...

Look for my best of hurricane video later this week... I'll probably not get to post too much this week because we have our intramural Co-Rec football playoffs this week... I fully expect (knock on wood) to play 3 straight days... Hopefully will get past Thursday's night game and have a chance to play for the title on Sunday Night! That's is the only reason this old man (29 years old) came back to play against a bunch of 21 year olds... One game at a time though! We play CSA at 9pm on Tuesday if anyone would like to come watch!!! There is a Hurri - "CANE" brewing in the Gulf and it's heading straight for the CSA... Better get your shutters up!!!

Mid-Atlantic "Nor Easter" Video..

BNVN Video - This was shot near Virginia Beach, VA on Thursday 11/12/09... There was a wind gust of 75mph reported at Norfolk International Airport... This is some pretty cool video... I promise I'll get my Ida grades out here soon... Basically it's a high A for the long range forecast and probably a B in a short range... I'll go in more details tomorrow... Also I'm going to get out my best of hurricane video here soon... Probably towards the middle of next week...

Historic Storm Underway!!!

Ida which phased with the "hybrid" and a trough is now becoming a historic storm! As expected, I knew this was going to be one heck of a storm not because of the pure strength but because of the duration of this storm... There is a state of emergency for Virginia as the winds are now gusting to near 60mph with torrential rains pushing 10 inches + in some places... There is also 30 foot seas just off the coast... There have been many "Nor Easters" stronger than this one but again it's becoming historic because of the duration... Typically these "Nor Easters" move fast enough that you get these effects for 24 maybe 36 hours tops... Some places are going to see tropical storm force conditions for at least 48 hours if not 60 hours straight, resulting in near 50,000 power outages already in Virginia alone... THAT IS A RARE EVENT, especially in November!!!

The main problem is you have this constant onshore flow of over tropical storm force conditions and at the same time you have lots and lots of heavy rain causing the rivers to flow over its banks... This excess flow wants to move towards the ocean but the surge is pushing back against it... Combined this with several high tides and you have a major problem! Remember Virginia is one of the few places on earth that has a tidal river basin which is only making things worst! The storm is getting close to full strength but still expect these conditions to continue for about 24 more hours... Things will really begin to improve Saturday as this "Nor Easter" moves away from the coast! As I said a few days ago, Ida is going to be remembered MUCH MORE for this "Nor Easter" than the hurricane it was near the Yucatan!!!

Ida Now becoming a "Nor Easter"... Poised to LASH the Mid-Atlantic!!!

My thoughts on Ida phasing and becoming a major "Nor Easter" is starting to unfold... The main problem is going to be the duration of this storm! This is not going to be a top 10 "Nor Easter" in terms of pure strength but the duration will make this a storm to remember... Here is a quote from Joe Bastardi about this impending storm, "It is a situation coastal resident should take very seriously. For while you wont get the wind of a hurricane, the amount of damage on the coast from waves will rival any hurricane in the past 25 years from hatteras north I think and with rain amounts to 6 inches in some places as far north as Va beach, The Ghost of Ida has a scary look indeed." My thoughts about this storm from previous posts still apply but I thought this quote summed it up well... I'll have my grades out from Ida sometime tomorrow... People along the North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, and Southern New Jersey shores need to get ready for ONE HECK of a storm that will last into Saturday!!!

Ida is NOT done yet!!!

Tropical Storm Ida is now down to 60mph and honestly I'm having trouble believing that looking at satellite imagery... It's probably barely a TS at this point... However, Ida is NOT done!!! Ida is currently merging with the what's left of the "hybrid" energy and a trough to eventually form one heck of a Nor Easter!!! What's left of Ida will pop off the Georgia coast in about 36 hours! Things will start to get crazy then as what's left of Ida will be nearing the gulf stream... Combine that with a trough and you are going to have one NICE storm for the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... It's not looking that bad for a lot of New England but from about New Jersey south, ESPECIALLY along North Carolina, Virginia, and the Delmarva coasts, LOOK OUT!!!

You're gong to see about 3 straight days (Wednesday/Thursday/Friday) of constant battering as this "Nor Easter" won't be moving very fast at all... Tuesday expect A LOT of rain across the Southern Appalachian states and by Saturday this storm will begin to weaken and die/move out!!! Expect 50mph + winds, coastal flooding, lots of rain, and also a lot of beach erosion... Basically a strong Nor Easter that won't be moving fast... In the end I really think Ida will be more known for this "Nor Easter" instead of it being a hurricane!!! I posted model images from tonight's 0z GFS above!!!

Tropical Storm Ida Nearing Land!!!

Ida continued to maintain near hurricane strength this afternoon... There was a nice convective burst this afternoon which helped keep Ida's strength up! Interesting how this burst occurred near the core of the tropical cyclone which is a clear indicator that it's STILL a warm cored system... The recon data shows this as well... Yes the outside of the hurricane is becoming extra tropical quickly but the CORE IS NOT!!! Just look at Lili in October 2002 that went from a strong Cat-4 to a Cat-1 in about a day! Similar things were going on with Lili as it was interacting with a trough and much cooler waters left by Isodore... Also there was a lot of shear and dry air ripping Lili apart! It was completely stretched out however again the core was still warm...

IMO if you rank the system because of processes/wind speeds within the CORE than you have to stay consistent is naming something extra-tropical because of these same processes going on within that core... Almost every hurricane becomes extra-tropical to some point before it makes landfall, especially along the northern gulf coast as the northern half is typically stretched out... Even look at a hurricane like Katrina... It was so HUGE that the northern half was definitely becoming extra-tropical before the eye made landfall as it was interacting with land and a strong trough... I know that is an extreme example but still it goes to my point about the core...

People can get WAY TOO caught up into the physics of the storm from time to time instead of using COMMON SENSE... If the physics were so good then what's the point of having meteorologist in the first place??? I mean if the physics are the gospel then why in the heck can't it get a 3 day forecast yet alone a 1 day forecast correct? Don't get me wrong, the physics are VERY IMPORTANT in assisting a meteorologist in becoming the best forecaster possible, but PLEASE USE COMMON SENSE!!! It's like still looking at a radar when you are on a nice supercell, and you can see everything with your own eyes!!! If you can see the wall cloud, then why in the heck would you still be dependent on the radar especially since the images are about 5/6 minutes old? Again COMMON SENSE meteorology... I feel very lucky/blessed to have been taught this applied/common sense meteorology by people like Doug, Justyn, Tim, Josh, and many others...

Tomorrow I'll grade my forecasts over the last 4/5 days... I'm very proud of my long range forecast but like always there is a lot of room for improvement!!! Especially in the short term! I'm my own worst critic because honestly the only person I'm trying to impress is myself... I don't mind criticism at all but I ask you to AT LEAST put out your own ideas first!!! If you put out a forecast and you want to criticize mine that's completely cool with me, but if you play arm chair forecaster then honestly I have very little time/respect for you... If you are not Man/Woman enough to put your own ideas out first then honestly save your breath! Ripping and reading every couple hours or saying you knew somethings after the fact doesn't make you a good forecaster... Try putting out your ideas 4/5 days out and see how well you do... Honestly that is the best way to learn and get better!!!

As of 9pm CT, Tropical Storm Ida now has 65mph sustained winds and a pressure of 997mb... However I seriously doubt we will see 65mph sustained winds ANYWHERE... With a weakening storm like this I would be surprised if we even see 60-65mph wind gusts! Landfall should occur near Baldwin County around 4am CT... I know it's not going to be bad at all, but still I hope everyone is safe tonight! Even the weakest storms can be dangerous if you're not careful!!!

Tropical Storm Ida...

I knew Ida would weaken rapidly with cooler waters, wind shear, and dry air but I'll be the first to say that I'm a little surprised it weakened as fast as it did... I really thought it had a decent shot at still being a hurricane at landfall, but at this point it will only be a tropical storm at landfall... It doesn't look like the NHC will label Ida extra-tropical at landfall which I agree with 100%... Also they now have it as a 55/50 knot TS at landfall which I think it probably going to be close... Again I thought it would be close to 65 knots at landfall (75mph) which is NOT going to be correct!!! At this point I would say around 60mph winds are the highest surface winds we will see with Ida... I was leaning strongly NO on chasing Ida already but obviously this is the nail in the coffin for me... There were a lot of negative factors working against an Ida storm chase but with it not even being a hurricane at landfall there is a 100% chance of me NOT going!!! I'll just be on guard for next year as I'm already in prep-mode for my next hurricane chase! Hurricanes are always 365.25 for me!!! :-)

NHC Now Thinks Hurricane at Landfall...

The NHC's latest advisory now thinks Ida will be a hurricane at landfall and NOT extra-tropical... I've been saying this since Thursday and especially when you see the NHC name things like tropical storm Grace, I was going to be a little frustrated if they called Ida extra-tropical right before landfall... It wouldn't have played into whether I chased or not but it would be very inconstant which is NOT what I want/hope to see... I promise you that Ida, even at landfall, will be more tropical in nature than Grace ever was!!!

My thoughts with chasing are still the same but the main thing that will probably keep me from going is the timing... Ida keeps picking up speed and I think now it will make landfall at dark during the very earilier morning hours of Tuesday... Weakening category-1 hurricane + nighttime = BAD CHASE IMO!!! I'll make my finally decision tomorrow morning but I'm more like 75/25 NO at this point... However things can change quickly!

In the short term I have NO problems with the NHC's track but I STRONGLY DISAGREE with the last two days! Ida is NOT going to turn right and ride along the Florida/Georgia border... The trough is going to pick up both the hybrid and Ida merging them together near Alabama/Georgia!!! With all this energy merging together WATCH OUT for a massive Nor Easter riding up the eastern seaboard... For more info on this refer to a couple posts back (One more thing about Ida)... I'll have an update tomorrow!

Hurricane Ida up to 105mph...

Hurricane Ida has strengthened to 105mph with a pressure of 979mb... Looking at the satellite imagery I'm not sure if Ida will get to 115mph... I would say it could get to 110mph, which is only 1mph away from a major hurricane! I have no problem with the NHC's track in the short term... I think Pensacola, FL will be close to the landfall point... It could be as west as Mobile, AL though... Also I still think this area will see hurricane force conditions (mostly gusts) whether or not the NHC says Ida is extra-tropical at that point or not... With chasing this is a tough call... Again I DON'T CARE if the NHC says it's extra-tropical but I do care if we don't get hurricane force conditions at the surface for very long... Not to sound arrogant but it's not really worth my money or time to drive down for 60 mph winds with the hurricanes I have been through over the years... If it were closer to 80 mph then I would probably go, but with a weakening hurricane you're not going to get the max wind potential... I'll make up my mind by tomorrow morning but right now I have to say I'm 51/49 NO on this one... Normally I would probably be 80/20 NO but since this year has been completely dead I'm really considering it... It's not that far of a drive! More updates later...

One more thing about Ida!!!

No one is really talking about this but Ida is going to eventually merge with the "hybrid" and a cold front to become one BEAST of a Nor Easter!!! Again Ida is NOT going to merge with the "hybrid" in the short term but when they come together with the cold front near Alabama/Georgia, LOOK OUT!!! This is similar to a "perfect storm" setup up but over land instead of water... Am I saying this is going to be as bad as the "perfect storm", HECK NO!!! But this is going to be a very bad storm for the east coast! I'm sorry but the NHC is dead wrong with Ida hugging the Florida Panhandle... Ida and the Hybrid will get picked up by the trough and it's game set match IMO!!! I honestly don't know why the NHC is not seeing this? I know it good to stick with your forecast until the very end but when it's obvious that it's wrong I personally would adjust ASAP!!! This slow adjust on the forecast/intensity is NOT forecasting IMO!!!

Some people are hyping Ida up way too much but at the same time this is a RARE event!!! The only landfalling hurricane in mid-November along the northern Gulf coast in my lifetime that I remember is hurricane Kate in 1985!!! Ida is not going to be bad as far as wind damage but we still should see hurricane force winds (mostly gusts) near Mobile/Pensacola... In mid-November that's BAD!!! Also again don't sleep on the rain potential... Hopefully with Ida moving fairly quick it won't be that horrible!!! So before I go, it's all relative to the time of year... Yes in September a weak hurricane is nothing along the northern Gulf coast, but in mid-November this is a rare event we may not see again for a long long time! You have to keep that in mind when you forecast! Also WATCH OUT for the Nor Easter!!! It's going to be a storm to reckon with!!!

Hurricane Kate 1985

Hurricane Ida now 100mph...

Hurricane Ida continues to look better and better on satellite imagery and is now a Category-2 hurricane... Pressure is down to 978mb with maximum sustained winds of 100mph... Hurricane Ide did shift/wobble a little west overnight but the idea of it still going through the middle of the Yucatan Channel is occurring right now as you can see a nice CDO with an eye trying to form!!! Hurricane Ida is a little east of where the NHC has it right now as she wobbled back north the last few hours... Expect some further strengthening as Ida could make it to a weak Category-3 hurricane (115mph)...

I'm glad to see that the NHC finally has Hurricane Ida making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border... With the wobble west overnight and the forward speed picking up some I don't really have a problem with this current track... As far as the strength I still think it will be a weak hurricane at landfall... I know the NHC has it labeled extra-tropical at landfall but honestly again that doesn't matter... I've see them name things in MUCH WORSE conditions tropical (ie. Grace!!!) so I'm not buying this extra-tropical stuff unless it stalls off the coast (IT WON'T!!!)... Again though it doesn't matter to places like Mobile/Pensacola because 74 mph winds is 74 mph winds either way... One thing though to keep in mind with Ida is she will be a rapidly weakening hurricane at landfall... Because of this the winds aloft will have a VERY HARD time mixing down to the surface so you are not going to get the maximum wind potential from Ida... This is one factor that "may" keep me from chasing Ida...

I'll be back later today with more updates... Check out the visible satellite imagery if you want to see a nice hurricane! It will be really cool to see if the eye develops today! It really looks like it's trying!!!

HURRICANE IDA!!!

UPDATE: Ida is now a strong Category-1 hurricane, even though like I said in the post below I really think Ida has been a hurricane for a while now... The pressure is 980mb with maximum sustained winds of 90mph and she is BOMBING OUT!!! Expect more strengthening over the next 24 hours before IDA starts to enter the colder waters/lower heat content of the Gulf of Mexico from a line around 24/25N... For thoughts on Ida see the posts below!!!

NHC Now East With IDA!!!

I'm really glad to see that the NHC has come back east and is now in line with my thinking with the track of Ida... For whatever reason the NHC typically is biased towards GFS data... Even their models are run off GFS model data so I guess it makes a lot of sense when you really think about it... Like I said earlier today the GFS has a HARD TIME with heat transfer and typically likes to "hand off" this energy to the westerlies... I've seen this too many times in the tropics and I had a feeling it would be even worse than normal with us being in November... In the end my track being closer to Cuba than the Yucatan is looking good... I still differ with the NHC's track on Tuesday/Wednesday because I do think Ida makes landfall along the Florida Panhandle... I really think Ida has gained enough speed/momentum to get caught enough by the trough and pulled into land...

Now with the intensity... The NHC is finally acknowledging that Ida will regain hurricane strength... That's not a slap towards the NHC but even late last night it was only forecasting a 45 knot storm... When I look at the satellite presentation I'm SHOCKED that Ida is not already a hurricane... I hate to say it but I have to wonder if this is not yet named a hurricane because of verification procedures I unfortunately see a lot... Again the NHC is the best and the brightest in the entire world when it comes to hurricanes but I don't always agree with the way they go about things... The consistency is not there and it's very subjective at times... I'm NOT a big fan of that and I have to say that I do agree with MOST of what Joe Bastardi says on this particular issue! I don't think the NHC should take this personally either! It's just a way to improve on a product that is already really good... In life when you think you are perfect you are only setting yourself up for failure... Even the smartest people in the world can improve everyday! I know I need to improve a lot in many aspects of my life!!!

Anyways, enough of that rant... Like I said earlier today I think Ida has a chance at being a hurricane at landfall... How strong it gets in the short term is very important! If Ida does make it to a strong Cat-2/weak Cat-3 like I think it can, then I feel fairly confident, as long as it keeps the forward motion up, that it will hit the Florida Panhandle as a Category-1 hurricane... If it doesn't quite get that strong and the forward speed slows down then I think a strong tropical storm is more likely... The NHC could declare Ida as extra-tropical just before landfall but honestly that's not going to matter a whole lot... 60 mph winds is 60 mph winds either way! If it can maintain hurricane strength then I'm going to chase Ida!!! It's going to be close with both the track and the strength so stay tuned for more updates!

Before I go I wanted to quickly touch on the low in the SW gulf... This "hybrid" should be just off the Louisiana coast early Monday morning... It will produce very gusty winds with some nice waves throughout the day along the coast of Louisiana... Even though it won't be named it will feel similar to a weak tropical storm! The main threat however is the amount of rain this "hybrid" will produce! The HPC is showing 4 to 5" rain all along the Deep South even before Ida gets here... And if Ida does stall just onshore (Most likely won't!!!) then were going to be looking at some BIG flooding problems.... Especially in places east of Mississippi like Georgia that have had WAY more rain than Mississippi in the last 2 months... No one is really talking about this but I would watch this VERY closely if you live in Georgia/Southern Appalachians.... The threat is DEFINITELY there!!!

Also I want everyone to see the GFS error first hand... Look at the images above from tonight's 0z GFS... The top image is 24 hours out and the bottom image is 36 hours out... See how the GFS is pulling Ida north and west... The "hybrid" storm is only adding to the problem as the GFS wants to phase these storms together in the short term! NOT GOING TO HAPPEN!!! They are two SEPARATE entities and the GFS is trying to "hand off" energy from Ida to the "hybrid"... The main thing this "hybrid" storm is going to do to Ida is VENTILATE IT!!! Another reason why I think Ida has a good shot at maintaining hurricane strength all the way to landfall... Just loop an IR satellite image right now from the Gulf of Mexico and you can see the two SEPARATE storms yourself... It's not rocket science as the GFS is OUT TO LUNCH!!!

One thing I've been hearing from some meteorologist that it a little disturbing is how the rain we should see in north-central MS on Monday into Tuesday is going to be dependent on Ida? Really??? I hate to break it to everyone but the rain in north-central MS is going to be from the "hybrid" storm and is NOT dependent on Ida... Most of the rain from Ida looks like it will miss Starkville to the east... We could get a little rain from Ida but again the heaviest rain from Ida will be east of Starkville, MS into Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and the Southern Appalachians... I'm not saying this to be a jerk but it's not accurate!!!

SOON TO BE HURRICANE IDA!!!

I know I have said this before, but SOON TO BE HURRICANE IDA is feeding back on the extremely warm NW Caribbean waters like a Great White on a Seal... The ideas for Ida are now all starting to come together... I think Ida will get close to a major hurricane (111-mph +) as it enters the Gulf through the Yucatan Channel... I'm still east of the NHC because I'm not buying the GFS in the short term... I'm nick picking a little here and the NHC has come back east some, but the GFS is NOT resolving the heat transfer correctly in this situation... It's a typical bias of the GFS to transfer heat north towards the trough instead of consolidating or bundling the energy like it should!!! The low in the SW Gulf is also messing with the GFS and its heat transfer ideas... Ida's energy is obviously consolidated/bundled so you are NOT going to see a transfer of heat/energy north and west... I'm still sticking with Ida NOT clipping the Yucatan Peninsula and at the very least going through the middle of the Yucatan channel...

My thoughts on a northern Gulf coast landfall are still the same... With Ida starting to gain some speed I actually think it WILL get picked up by the trough and it WILL make landfall in the Florida Panhandle... As fast as Ida is going to ramp up, it will also quickly ramp down... I'm starting to think know that Ida will be moving fast enough that it really could be a hurricane at landfall... At the very least I think it will be a strong tropical storm! I'll be back later tonight with more updates but my thoughts on soon to be Hurricane Ida are starting to come together nicely!!! Not wishing anything bad on anyone but it's about time we had something to talk about in the tropics pertaining to the US!!!

Tropical Depression IDA...

Ida has now been downgraded to a topical depression as she continues to move through the eastern part of Nicaragua... Ida actually made landfall earlier this morning as a weak Category-1 hurricane along the southeastern Nicaragua coast... The future of Ida is very tricky!!! What it comes down to is the amount of time it spends over land and as it moves over land can Ida keep a decent look pertaining to the core and outflow pattern... Also does the shear relax like it is forecasted? It has been moving east of the NHC's track today mainly because it feels that warm water just offshore... Hurricanes obviously don't like land so it's trying to get back over water as fast as possible... Even the slightest shift east can have a HUGE impact on the future forecast of Ida...

Anyone see the 12z/18z GFDL today? Wow!!! The 12z GFDL bombed Ida out to 129 knots as it entered the Gulf of Mexico and the 18z GFDL bombed Ida out to 125 knots as it entered the Gulf of Mexico... I seriously doubt Ida ever gets that strong but I do think the GFDL is picking up on the possibility of Ida strengthening over the open UNTOUCHED EXTREMELY warm waters in the NW Caribbean... The atmosphere doesn't have a calendar, so when the waters are that warm it doesn't matter to the hurricane whether it's November or August... If you have all that energy available then you are looking at some problems when it comes to intensification...

Another interesting factor with Ida that was brought up today by Joe Bastardi is the fact that Ida strengthen fairly rapidly as it approached Nicaragua in colder waters/low heat content... When it pops off the Honduras coast it will be in water that is way above normal... So if it strengthened like that over cooler water, what will stop it from exploding over the warmer than normal waters/high heat content? This water that it's about to enter is by far the warmest water left in the tropical atlantic... The heat content is off the charts for this time of year! Also the shear is forecasted to weaken significantly so I think there is a lot of potential...

Of course this all depends on what Ida looks like when it finally does hit those waters... If it is somewhat intact, then look out! If it's ripped up, then there isn't much to worry about... My track is to the right of the NHC by about 100 miles or so... I actually think Ida should be closer to Cuba than the Yucatan Peninsula... At the very least I see Ida splitting the middle and not clipping the Yucatan Peninsula like the NHC track is currently forecasting... I don't see it getting to a strong Cat-4 like the GFDL thinks, but I do see it getting to a strong, possibly even a major hurricane if it can stay together once it enters the open waters of the NW Caribbean... Of course the shear would have to relax as well...

IF, and I mean IF this happens it will be interesting to see what Ida does as it enters the Gulf... Once you get past 25N latitude the waters/heat content of the Gulf of Mexico starts to decrease dramatically... Even if you have a strong hurricane it will die QUICKLY unless it's moving fast enough to sustain its hurricane strength as it heads towards the Northern Gulf... Lets just say you had a Category-3 has it entered the Gulf and it was only moving at about 10mph as it headed north... I would seriously doubt you would even have a hurricane on our hands at landfall... However if it's moving closer to 20 mph then yes I think it could be a hurricane at landfall... The slower it moves the less likely it will be a hurricane at landfall... This will all depend on the position of the High when Ida does enter the Gulf... The more on the western periphery of the High Ida is the faster it will move!

Either way the main threat for the the Gulf coast and the SE is the potential for A LOT OF RAIN!!! As you know by now we have had WAY TOO much rain across the SE over the last two months... Even though it has been dry for nearly a week now, I'm still looking at near 2 feet of rain at my house since September 17th... So if we do have a tropical system on our hands during the middle of next week I'm not liking the flooding potential there is... Also even with a weak hurricane making landfall and the amount of water in the ground, a lot of trees could come down... We'll see what happens but there is a decent threat of a hurricane entering the Gulf early next week... However the next 24-36 hours is KEY!!! If it looks decent (Core + Outflow) as it enters the very warm waters of the NW Caribbean then we have a problem on our hands... If it looks ragged and torn up then I'm NOT going to be too worried about development... Only time will tell and I'll be back for more updates!

Also really quick don't sleep on that low in the SW Gulf of Mexico!!! I don't think it will get named since it won't be entirely tropical (Hybrid) but it's going to bring A LOT of rain to the SE especially Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama... Eventually it will get into Tennessee, Georgia, and the Appalachians as well!!! If we get this "hybrid" and then what could be Ida, we're going to be looking at some MAJOR flooding problems across the Deep South... Also another possible side effect of this "hyrid" is the possibility of it ventilating what could be Ida... Bottom line, this is going to be a crazy next week so get ready!!! Even if Ida doesn't form we could be looking at a flooding event (Possibly BIG) across the Deep South "IF" we do get this one two punch from the tropics!!! Take it for what it's worth but the HPC is forecasting close to 4" of rain near Starkville with the first "hyrid" storm by Tuesday night... And that's before what may be Ida even gets here!!! Everyone across the Deep South needs to keep a close eye of these two storms!!!

More Cool Hurricane Videos...

Here are 4 more AWESOME hurricane storm chase videos I found on youtube... The first one was shot my Michael Laca during Hurricane Hugo's landfall in Puerto Rico! Some of the best hurricane video I've ever seen!!! The second video is also from Michael Laca during Hurricane Elena in Biloxi, MS... BY FAR the best video I've ever seen inside the eye of a major hurricane... The third video is shot by Jim Leonard in Puerto Rico during Hurricane Georges... Amazing video especially with so many palm trees in the background!!! The fourth and final video is also shot by Jim Leonard during Hurricane Charley in Port Charlotte, FL... I was very close to his location, basically in-between Jim Leonard and Mike Theiss locations... Every time I watch Charley video I swear I start to get flash backs!!! I know I'm OBSESSED with hurricanes but I think everyone will enjoy the videos!!!

Hurricane Hugo Video (Puerto Rico)

Hurricane Elena Video (Biloxi, MS)

Hurricane Georges Video (Puerto Rico)

Hurricane Charley Video (Port Charlotte, FL)

Old Movie Trailers & MORE...

I was going through some youtube storm chasing vidoes tonight and I found a couple of old trailers from our "On the Road with LDCT" movie... My good friend Derek Cody made the movie and he did an EXCELLENT job with it... His editing abilities are hard to beat!!! I'll leave a link to both of them... They are a little overdone/dramatic in the since they are a little too "Hollywood" but hey it's a movie right... I always enjoy watching these and it will be cool to show my kids one-day...

Movie Trailer-1

Movie Trailer-2

Also, I found some AMAZING video from Jim Leonard on Hurricane Allen from Jamaica and South Texas... Allen got down to a 899mb (190mph) Category-5 monster at one point near the Yucatan Peninsula, and was still a Cat-5 not too far off the South Texas coast! It did weaken to a Category-3 at landfall... I've never seen video on this hurricane before! If you enjoy hurricanes you will really enjoy this video!!!

Jim Leonard's Hurricane Allen Video

Hurricane Allen Stormpulse

Halloween Night Rain Update....

I got 1.35" of rain at my house in West Starkville, MS Friday afternoon into Saturday morning... The models were a little low but 1.00"-1.25" was pretty darn good overall... I haven't asked what some other people across Starkville got but I'm sure 1.00"-1.25" was fairly good... I may have gotten a little bit more because the first supercell we saw with the wall cloud yesterday grazed my house a little... Who knows though 1.35" may be representative of most of Starkville...

On a side note, I sure had a LOT of trick or treaters tonight! I always had a great time as a kid on Halloween so it was good to see the little kids enjoying themselves... I have to say though that not all the kid were "little"... I even had a few parents with bags asking for candy... A little weird but oh well I still gave them a couple pieces...

Surprise Storm Chase!!!

Today we had a successful storm chase that wasn't even expected!!! It's funny because that happens sometimes... I've seen a nice wedge shaped tornado before on a see text day so again, it can and does happen... We were under a slight risk, 5% tornado, but honestly I didn't expect much at all today... We didn't see any tornadoes, and who ever did report a tornado near Starkville was BADLY MISINFORMED!!! I understand that people get excited, but when you report tornadoes that don't exist all you do is cause chaos and fear... Also you destroy any tornado database we have with horrible data! How in the heck can you do an accurate tornado research project when your database is corrupted with bad tornadoes??? I know that's part of the game but again please don't call scud, or dust, or even a smoke stack a tornado!!!

We saw a nice wall cloud with a discrete supercell to the west of 25N... I also saw a nice shelf cloud move through MSU's campus and head towards West Point and Columbus, MS... No tornadoes, but still it was a successful chase in my eyes... Saw a lot of nice structure on a day I didn't think I was going to chase... Can't beat that!!! Below is some video from our chase... I was with Michael Carter and Henry Long... I was also with Jon Harris for the first supercell that had a wall cloud... Justyn Jackson, Tim Wallace, and Athena Owen were in another car next to us on the first supercell as well... Again it was a fun and successful chase and thankfully there were no tornadoes, damage, or injuries to the best of my knowledge!!! I think everyone will also enjoy the video, which is titled "Great Plains of Mississippi"... You'll see why after you watch it!!!

10/30/09 Storm Chase Video

Great, More Rain!!!

This morning we got a quick 1" of rain at my house in West Starkville... Last nights 0z NAM didn't show much rain at all, however last nights 0z GFS did very well... It showed closer to .75" for us in Starkville and again it CRUSHED the 0z NAM... I don't know what's up with the NAM but it hasn't been preforming so well over the last 6 months or so... Doug Gillham always says, "never underestimate a warm front"... That was taught to him by one of his teachers and he has tried to instill that on us... Again 1.00" was higher than anyone predicted but considering how much rain we have had over the last 6 weeks I kind of think in these situations the extra moisture sort fed back on itself... You ever people say drought breeds drought, well I'm guessing IMO that extra moisture helps maximizes your rain potential...

Unfortunately A LOT more rain is on the way... Again we had 1" last night, about .33" on Tuesday, and the models are showing at least another inch of rain Friday late afternoon through around noon Saturday... The 0z NAM is showing 1.00-1.25"... The 18z Canadian (GEM Regional) is showing about 1.20"... The 18z GFS is also showing about 1.00-1.25"... The HPC is going with 1.00-1.25" as well... So I guess that's pretty good agreement!!! Bottom line is we don't need the rain but it looks like at least 1.00" is a safe bet this Friday/Saturday...

As the rain was coming down this morning by backyard was under at least 2 or 3 inches of water... That's NOT a good sign... It's getting to the point that flooding has to be a concern especially back in Arkansas/Louisiana where they could be looking at close to 5" of rain in some locations... That's just WAY too much rain considering how much rain we have had... At my house we have had over 22" in just under 6 weeks... And that's not even close to what some areas across the Deep South have recieved!!! The NWS in Jackson did a GOOD JOB addressing this flood threat in Arkansas/Louisiana on their 5:15am morning discussion!

Timeline of the SPC...

Here is a really cool link to the timeline of the SPC... Rob Hart tweeted this earlier today and I thought I would add it to my blog for all to see... I highly recommend everyone to check this link out... There are lots of things/facts on the timeline I had no idea about! It's amazing to see how far the SPC has come in the last 60 years or so!!! Thanks Rob for the link! Great find...

SPC TIMELINE...

Hurricane Dennis Video...

I just posted a 9 minute video on Hurricane Dennis... This was a major hurricane John Walker and myself intercepted in Pensacola, Fl on July 10th 2005... This was the first major hurricane (120mph) US landfall during an INCREDIBLE season I'll NEVER forget for the rest of my life! On July 9th John and I started in Mobile, Al and made our way to Pascagoula, MS... On the way there we checked out Bayou La Batre, AL... I was amazed at how historic/interesting this gulf coast fishing town was but at the same time I knew in my heart you CAN'T survive a major hurricane there... The worse of Dennis thankfully missed them but unfortunately less than 2 month later Hurricane Katrina pretty much destroyed this historic gulf coast fishing town...

We finally got to Pascagoula, MS around dark on the 9th to stop and get a room and check things out... I think it was a holiday inn but whatever the hotel was it had some GREAT food... One big mistake we made was staying up all night watching Dennis... At the time it was a 145mph Category-4 Monster so it was hard to sleep anyways, but I've learned that you need SOME sleep when you chase... Even 3 or 4 hours can be huge... By dawn we started to realize that Dennis was shifting a little right so we decided to head back towards Mobile, AL... I actually called Doug Gillham for some help, but just as I started talking to him his wife went into labor so he had to go to the hospital ASAP... Funny enough his first daughter Riley was born at almost the same time Hurricane Dennis made landfall in Pensacola, FL...

Justyn Jackson actually helped us out and we found an AWESOME parking garage about a 1/2 mile from the water in the heart of Pensacola, FL... In Hurricane Ivan the surge got about 12 feet high in this garage so I knew we were going to be safe since Hurricane Dennis wasn't going to be the same surge producer as Hurricane Ivan... I also knew we were in the right spot when I saw Warren Faidley across the street from us! Dennis made landfall around 3pm CT as the western side of the eye went right over us... As you know typically the strongest winds are found in the NE quadrant of the eyewall but this particular hurricane was unique in the fact that the winds were as strong if not stronger in the NW quadrant of the eyewall... The convection really looked better on radar in the NW quadrant of the eyewall as it went over us... The winds were basically calm there for about 30 minutes or so...

This of course was not even close to the worst hurricane I have been in but honestly it was one of the most hardcore I've gone when it comes to chasing! By the end of Dennis I was probably the most tired I've ever been in my life to that point!!! I would have just stayed in the parking lot and slept if it wasn't for the curfew in place... We had to get back to Mobile, Al by dark so John and I somehow kept each other awake by talking and an occasional punch to the shoulder... We got back to Mobile, AL around 9 pm or so and I immediately collapsed on the coach... The next thing I knew it was around 1pm the next day... I slept for almost 16 hours straight!!! I've never done that before and the scary part was I swear it just felt like I just closed my eyes for about 2 seconds... It was a weird feeling and I've NEVER fallen asleep so fast in my life!!! If there is ever another major hurricane heading towards Pensacola, FL I know exactly where to go... That place was a FORT!!! Enjoy the video, and hey, NO CUSS WORDS!!! :-)

Hurricane Dennis Stormpulse

© Greg Nordstrom 2005

ANY USE OF THIS VIDEO WITHOUT PERMISSION FROM GREG NORDSTROM IS PROHIBITED AND WILL BE PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW...

Starkville Rain Update...

I got .81" of rain at my house in West Starkville, MS last night... Justyn Jackson told me he got just over an inch near campus in East Starkville... So it looks like .75" to 1.00" was fairly common across the Starkville area... Again the 0z GFS from two day ago was almost spot on... Besides the convection in the northern gulf I really can't see another reason why the system under produced... It over produced in Texas so I do think the idea of hurricane Rick's entrainment adding to rainfall totals had some merit... Like I said last night, forecasting is tough and sometimes mesoscale processes/events can put a BIG hamper on your forecast!

On a side note tomorrows big game between MSU and Florida looks good... Temperatures should be near 50 at kick off dropping into the upper 40's through the game... I know it would take a miracle but I sure hope MSU wins... I was actually at the MSU vs. Florida game in 2000 which was one of the loudest/craziest games I've ever been too... Thanks to Jeff Perry I'm going to be at the game tomorrow which should be fun either way...

0z GFS Wins!!!

Well it looks like last nights 0z GFS is going to win the battle of rainfall accumulations... I really thought the HPC was on the right track especially because of the fact that this system absorbed what was hurricane Rick... However, this system is completely underachieving and honestly there is only one reason IMO as to why it's doing that... There is a lot of convection in the northern gulf coast which is blocking the inflow to the rest of Mississippi... The flow from the gulf has to go over this convection which means where not going to get the same low-level moisture/inflow we should have gotten... I would like to think without that convection in the gulf we would have achieved at least 2" of rain... When it didn't start to rain until almost 6pm and the rain was so spotty in nature, I new the higher amounts where "most likely" not going to happen...

This is actually good news because we've had PLENTY of rain in the last 5-6 weeks(20"+)... The HPC has backed off a lot, basically cutting it's rainfall in half (1.25") for us in Starkville... Also tonight's 0z NAM has backed off a lot, cutting it's rainfall all the way to .5" for us in Starkville... As I look at the radar I don't see us getting 1.25" of rain unless things really start to fill in... With the convection still in the northern gulf blocking the inflow to Mississippi I think now were looking at around .75"-1.00" with some areas getting a little more than an inch... Still a decent amount of rain but NO WHERE near the 2-3" I thought we could get... Hey that's forecasting and weather in general... If it was easy everyone would do it!

Lots of rain on the way!!!

Were looking at a lot of rain here in Starkville, MS over the next 36 hours or so... We should start to see some rain developing by around noon tomorrow with the heaviest rain coming Thursday night into Friday morning... The HPC is calling for near 2.5" of rain over the next 48 hours... The 0z NAM is calling for near 1.5" of rain over the next 48 hours... The 0z GFS is closer to 1" over the next 48 hours... I actually think the HPC is going to be close if not even a little low because of the tropical feed from what was hurricane Rick... This system has basically absorbed the remnants of hurricane Rick which I think the models are having trouble seeing... That's why I like the higher amounts targeted by the HPC... I think 2-3" of rain will be common across the region with some spots getting over 3"...

Best of Tornado Video...

I just posted the Best of Tornado Video from the 2004 LDCT Great Plains Storm Chase!!! It was actually hard to condense all of it into a 10-minute video... I tried my best though and I hope everyone enjoys it! It always brings back good memories! I'm ready for the 2010 LDCT Great Plains storm chase right now!!!

*WARNING* There are cuss words, so again if you are sensitive to that then I wouldn't watch... It's really not that bad though! However I'm giving everyone fair warning!

© Greg Nordstrom 2004

ANY USE OF THIS VIDEO WITHOUT PERMISSION FROM GREG NORDSTROM IS PROHIBITED AND WILL BE PROSECUTED TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW...

Extremely Powerful Hurricane Rick...

Hurricane Rick is now a DANGEROUS Category-5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 180mph (906mb)... I'll leave some images and the Public Advisory/Forecast Discussion from the National Hurricane Center... It's so well done that I can't add much more! Dr. Lixion Avila is a great forecaster (Senior hurricane specialist) at the NHC!!!

Public Advisory:

000 

WTPZ35 

KNHC 

180235 

TCPEP5 

BULLETIN 

HURRICANE RICK ADVISORY NUMBER  11 

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009 

800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009  

...WITH 180 MPH WINDS...RICK BECOMES THE SECOND STRONGEST

EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD AFTER LINDA OF 

1997...  

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST 

COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS 

SEVERE HURRICANE.  

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RICK 

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.9 

WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES ...475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 

MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 605 MILES ...975 KM...

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.  

RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...

22 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON 

SUNDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD 

BEGIN ON MONDAY.  

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK HAS CONTINUED TO 

STRENGTHEN... AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 

ESTIMATED NEAR 180 MPH...285 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 

RICK IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE 

ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS 

IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY ON SUNDAY.   

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...

75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 

EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM.  

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 906 MB/26.75 INCHES.  

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE 

SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS.  

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION... 

LOCATION...15.0N 105.9W 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH 

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH 

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...906 MB  

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 

CENTER AT 200 AM PDT.  

$$ 

FORECASTER AVILA

Forecast Discussion:

000 
WTPZ45 
KNHC 180236 
TCDEP5 
HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009 
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009  

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE 
EXPRESSED IN ONE WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE 
DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. 
ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE COULD SEE THE 
SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYEWALL 
AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE 
HURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 
7.0 AND 7.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB 
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 
7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4 DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO  
BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN 
INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE SECOND 
STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
AFTER LINDA IN 1997.  

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE 
STRENGTH TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE 
HURRICANE WILL FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 
HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS 
THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER 
RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH 
GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS 
ALREADY REACHED...OR IS VERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  

RICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER 
MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...THE STEERING PATTERN 
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH HAS 
BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM MEXICO 
WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH.  
THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE 
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS RICK MOVING 
WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE 
IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH 
AND NORTHEAST AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND AND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE 
ENVELOPE.  

THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT 
APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. 
INTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA 
CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS 
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS   

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
INITIAL      18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W   155 KT  
12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W   160 KT  
24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W   150 KT  
36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   140 KT  
48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W   120 KT  
72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W   105 KT  
96HR VT     22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W    80 KT 
120HR VT     23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W    40 KT...INLAND  

$$ 
FORECASTER AVILA