HEADING OUT!!!

I'm heading out of here in the next couple of hours...  Myself and Michael Haynes will be chasing this storm together...  Gustav unfortunately looks to be getting his act back together and COULD get back to a Cat-4 before landfall...  It will probably hit as a Cat-3 but it just depends on how it cycles before landfall...  For updates click on the twitter - LDCT account...  I'll be posting information there since we will most likely have slow internet...  I'll try by best to update as much as possible...  I pray for the people of Louisiana and I truly hope this storm doesn't intensify before landfall...  LDCT4LIFE!!!

Thank you shear!!!

Well thank goodness for the shear this morning and also I would like to personally thank the dry air in the area as well...  This is not to say that Gustav still won't be a major hurricane at landfall, but I'm telling you without this shear and dry air we would have had a Cat-5 on our hands...  The track is still a problem as it looks to hit just south and west of New Orleans...  While I'm VERY thankful Gustav has weakened, people in New Orleans still need to take this storm seriously...  Even a weak Cat-3 will do a LOT of damage in New Orleans...  Of course it depends on the final track, even though Gustav was east of the last NHC point so the eastward trend looks to be continuing...  

As far as chasing I'm still in wait and see mode...  Like I said last night Gustav is hitting an area for hurricane chasing that is very similar to the Ozarks for tornado chasing...  It's very dangerous and near impossible to find a good spot...  You would lose your car if not your life south of I-10 with a major hurricane in south east Louisiana...  Personally I think I would be ok, but I don't think my car would be as lucky...  Well see what happens even though I'm so thankful Gustav is not the monster it easily could have been!!!  More updates to come...

So Hard yet So Important!!!

Gustav hit a low pressure of 941mb with maximum sustained winds of 150mph...  Only 6mph short of a Category 5...  Thankfully Cuba did hurt Gustav some and now the winds are down to 135mph with a pressure of 958mb...  So again the good news is Gustav has weaken some, but the bad news is that Gustav has been shifting right and accelerating faster then the models showed...  The acceleration north is what scares me the most...  This tell me that the weakness is stronger than models thought and is probably going to keep Gustav more east...  Unfortunately this is BAD NEWS for New Orleans...  It's still impossible to say for sure where Gustav is going with 100% certainty...  

This is very frustrating to me, but I will say that I'm doubting a eastern Texas landfall at this point...  Because of the faster motion and also the fact that Gustav has missed almost every single NHC point east today I'm actually thinking Gustav will go more east than even the NHC has at this time...  I really hate to change my thoughts but I have to say the evidence is mounting more and more for an eastern track at this time...  I still think Gustav will reach a Cat-5 in the Gulf weakening some to a Cat-4 at landfall...  The current intensity of 135mph should be very close to the landfall intensity!  

Again I'm now really starting to think that Gustav goes a little east of the NHC's track...  This is not good for New Orleans...  The current track is still bad for surge but even the slightest shift eastward makes things so much worst for New Orleans...  We'll know a lot more tomorrow morning and I hope this trend does not continue, but unfortunately the trend has been east today....  I was going to leave tonight but because of the eastward jog and the faster movement I'm going to wait until tomorrow...  SE Louisiana is like the Ozarks for chasing tornadoes...  It's very dangerous and extremely difficult if not impossible to find a safe place to view the storm...  Tomorrow I'll decide whether to go to Slidell, LA if the eastward movement continues or whether to go to Lafayette, LA if the ridge builds back like it should...  It's a tough call so I'll wait until tomorrow afternoon to decide...  

Right now I just hope the eastward trend stops...  Again not to wish it on ANYONE, but New Orleans and ESPECIALLY Mississippi have been through enough because of Katrina...  All I know is those people don't deserve this!  Maybe it's not even about who does and doesn't deserve something like a hurricane because the weather has NO memory/mercy...   Personally though it would break my heart to see Mississippi get hit again!  I'll have an update tomorrow...  Sorry about not being able to pin point an area still at this time but this is very tough...  A one mile eastward jog could equal 10 miles more east at landfall...  

NOT GOOD x 2!!!

Well Gustav has now become a monster!!!  The pressure is down to 945mb with sustained winds of 145mph...  That's a strong Category-4...  It dropped 9mb in less than 3 hours which is amazing!!!  The scariest part of this is the fact that Gustav is not even in the Gulf yet!  Once it crosses western Cuba and hits the Loop Current this storm will reach Cat-5 status...  I want to watch how Gustav crosses Cuba before I do a full tropical update...  Small fluctuations west or east can make a huge difference in the end game...  Unfortunately I have been noticing this morning that Gustav has been jogging east point after point...  The more Gustav jogs east the more chance Gustav is going to have a direct impact on New Orleans!!!  Again I think when it pops out in the Gulf tonight everyone will have a much better idea on where Gustav SHOULD go...  Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst at this point!!!

NOT GOOD!!!

Hurricane Gustav is now a major hurricane, deepening even faster than I thought it would!  I mean I new it was bombing out, but to already be at 955mb with 120mph winds really scares me...  Like Bastardi has been saying, it's TEXTBOOK strengthening...  My worst fears of a Cat-5 in the Gulf really might come true...  Man this SUCKS!!!  A big update will come later today...  My thoughts and prayers go out to the people of western Cuba right now... 

3 Years Ago!!!

Today is the 3 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina...  Without a doubt the saddest day in my life...  Someday on here I'll give a detailed account on the events of that day but with Gustav approaching and possibly Hannah behind him today doesn't seem like the best time to relive that horrible day!  I will say that without any doubt in my mind that Katrina was a Category-5...  920mb Cat-3???  Sure whatever you say...  I mean if you want to argue that it was a 4 not a 5, then fine I'm cool with that...  But if you tell me it's a 3 then I will just laugh...  Again I'll have a detailed account someday writing all my thoughts about this historic and tragic event... Just not today!

Gustav has formed an eye and is starting to ramp up big time!  Pressure is down to 974mb with sustained winds of 80mph...  I think by morning Gustav will be a Cat-2 and a Cat-3 by tomorrow evening...  Gustav is moving away from land into a near perfect environment!  This is just the beginning as I still expect Gustav to get to a Cat-5 in the Gulf...  Hopefully I'll be wrong but things look near perfect for intensification over the next few days...  Plus Gustav is about to enter some of the highest heat potential in the entire Atlantic/Gulf...  Think of the ocean heat potential as CAPE for the hurricane...  And Gustav is about to move into CAPE values approaching 10,000 J/KG which can easily support a Cat-5...

My track forecast still has not changed with Gustav...  I still expect the ridge to build in stronger than the models expect pushing Gustav more west into eastern Texas...  For the most part the NHC and the Models haven't shifted a whole lot today...  I actually like what the NHC is doing with the track...  Personally I feel a track over the middle of Louisiana is the least likely track but definitely the most responsible...  I believe either two things happen...  One the weakness is strong enough to pull Gustav towards New Orleans/Mississippi.  Two the ridge builds in strong and pushes Gustav to Texas/Louisiana...  I write a blog that a few people read, where the NHC issues forecasts to millions to people...  Now don't get me wrong sometimes I'm critical of the NHC and definitely don't agree with them all the time but in this case I think they are making the right call...  They have to cover themselves especially considering the area you are talking about here...  Were only 3 years removed from Katrina and to many it still feel like yesterday...  Eventually the NHC is going to have to take a hard line, but for now I think they are doing the right thing...

When you put everything together things still look really bad to me...  You have extremely high ocean heat content, little to no wind shear, little to no dry air, and only the western tip of Cuba in the way of Gustav and the northern Gulf coast...  When you put it together I'm still sticking with a Cat-4 (135mph) landfall in eastern Texas...  Of course this doesn't mean I'm going to be right ( I honestly hope I'm not), but like yesterday and the day before I still don't see anything that is making me want to change my forecast...  While I do think Gustav hits Cat-5 status at some point in the Gulf, it will weaken some before landfall...  However I'll keep saying this to anyone that wants to listen...  The further west Gustav goes the stronger it will be!!!  Tomorrow night as Gustav starts to cross western Cuba and head into the Gulf I'll post a detailed tropical discussion and update my feelings on the track and intensity...  I will have a much better idea on the track tomorrow night and especially Sunday!  I'm still in a wait and see mode but don't have any changes to my track/intensity forecast with Gustav at this time!   

Not much to add at this point...

Gustav is pounding Jamaica with torrential rain and gusty winds...  Currently Gustav is a strong tropical storm with 70mph winds and a pressure of 988mb...  The land interaction with Jamaica has prevented Gustav from strengthening today...  Look out though, because when Gustav gets west of Jamaca you are going to see this storm bomb out!  Joe Bastardi from accuweather is calling for a 30-50mb drop in pressure in 24 hours...  I think that's very attainable!!!  By tomorrow night Gustav will begin to show everyone that he means business...

The NHC and the models have shifted west today...  This is starting to become more in line with what I'm thinking...  I feel even more confident today then yesterday with my forecast...  I'm still sticking with a Cat-4 landfall along the eastern Texas coast...  Much more similar to Rita than Katrina in my opinion...  Unfortunately the more west this storm goes the stronger it will be...  Its even looking very possible that Gustav could miss western Cuba heading through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico...  That would only make things worse so hopefully Gustav will clip western Cuba...  Any land interaction at this point is a good thing considering that nothing else is going to slow this monster down!!!  

I will say there is still a lot that can happen so anything is possible...  If you live between Houston and Mobile you need to take this storm VERY seriously...  I'm personally going with a western track but again if you live in Lake Charles, New Orleans, Gulfport, or Mobile please watch this storm very closely!!!  Today's 12z European showed a scary situation for New Orleans...  Usually the euro is my model of choice for the tropics so the 12z run does scare me a little...  I feel strong that it is too far west but again at this point is still way to early to say for sure!  I just hope and pray that this storm stays Far Far away from Mississippi...  After seeing what I saw with Katrina it would just break my heart to see the Mississippi Coast get hit again!!!  

Scariest thing I have ever read!!!

3 years ago today I read the scariest thing in my entire life!!! I'll never forget driving around Gulfport, MS trying to find a shelter when John Walker told me to read something... It was a urgent weather message out of New Orleans, LA written by a man named Robert Ricks... I would love to shake this mans hand one day.... I give him all the props in the world to have the guts to issue this statement!!!

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

Going to wait and see...

I know I said I was going to do a detailed tropical discussion tonight but honestly at this point I feel basically the same as I did yesterday...  Gustav was looking really ragged a few hours ago only to jump SW, moving it away from Hispaniola, which is helping it get it's act back together...  The inflow is improving and you can see two distinct outflow bands developing rapidly...  Jamaica will slow its potential to strengthen but once it gets past the west coast of Jamaica, LOOK OUT!!!  I think Friday Gustav is going to show us that he means business...  I still don't like the look of this and it gives me a sick feeling in the pit of my gut!

There is no doubt that models have shifted to the right today...  However I'm still sticking with landfall around the Houston, TX area...  Not that I'm wish-casting this left even though as someone that was in Gulfport, MS when Katrina hit I'm the last person that wants to see Gustav hit anywhere near that area...  I'm just going to stand on two principles I live by when it comes to tropical forecasting...  One, the GFS almost always has a right bias/error...  It doesn't mean it will this time but most of the time it has a horrendous time with heat transfer and almost always underestimates the strength on the ridge...  Two, not only does the GFS have a problem with heat transfer, one of the main reasons it underestimates the strength of the ridge is the fact that it doesn't take into account that we are going to have a Cat 4/5 in the middle of the Gulf...  Why does this matter, well when you have a Cat 5 hurricane think how much latent heat is being released into the atmosphere...  All that extra heat goes into the ridge, pumping it up, and forcing the hurricane more west than the GFS thinks...  My track is on the western side of the NHC's cone and until I see a reason to change it, I"M NOT!!!  I see a Cat-4 landfall in eastern Texas at this point...  Similar to Rita but unfortunately probably a little stronger...  More to come tomorrow!!!

Tropical Links...

Unfortunately for the people of New Orleans and Mississippi the models have been shifting the track to the right... I'm still sticking with the Houston area but again the models are shifting right... It will be interesting to see if it's a short term trend with the common bias/error or the real deal... We really won't know for sure until Saturday, but I'm sticking with my track until I feel without any doubt that I'm wrong... Too many times in the past I have flipped my forecast just because of a few model runs... I'm staying strong with a western track until I see without any doubt it won't happen... I'll have a more detailed tropical update later tonight... Also I have added some cool tropical links below as a few people have been asking for them... Enjoy!!!

FSU Tropical
PSU Tropical
Early Track
Crown Weather
Wx Underground
Wind Shear
Heat Potential
Loop Current
Max Potential
Ocean Temps
SAL
Dvorak

Hurricane Gustav...

Gustav hit the south western coast of Haiti earlier this afternoon as a Cat-1 hurricane (90mph)...  The speed of has slowed to NW at 7mph, and looking at satellite imagery and how the hurricane has slowed the turn to the west is beginning...  Gustav has weakened to 75mph and could weaken a little bit more as it continues to interact with land from Haiti and eastern Cuba...  Model guidance has begun to diverge as Gustav enters the Gulf of Mexico...  There is no question in my mind that Gustav gets into the Gulf, but from there the track is tough...  Will the ridge build in strong and push Gustav towards Texas or will a trough weaken the ridge enough to pull Gustav towards the northern Gulf coast...  You can argue either way so lets look at the models and try to get an idea how everything is coming together!

The European has Gustav striking near the Corpus Christie region next Tuesday September 2nd...  For a global model the European shows a very healthy storm hitting Texas...  Obviously the European is going with a stronger ridge....  I will say that the 12z euro has moved Gustav way north where last nights 0z had it hitting northern Mexico...  So the trend is right with the euro...  Right now this is more in line with what I'm thinking...  You can see the trough that could pick up Gustav in the north east and Mid-Atlantic region...  This matches up perfectly with the teleconnections from last week...  It's actually so close it's scary...

The Canadian has a much weaker Gustav heading towards the northern mexico coast...  But look to the east!!!  WOW!!!  I don't know if that's going to happen but we are entering an upswing in tropical activity that will remind people of 04/05...  That doesn't mean we will get the same landfall impact (WE MAY NEVER), but it does mean there is a big threat out there with so much activity...  All it takes is one as 1992 showed us...  We had only 6 names storms that year but unfortunately one was named ANDREW, and we all know how that turned out!

The GFS is showing Gustav way right heading into the Florida Panhandle...  This would be in line with the common right bias/error of the GFS...  Personally I think this is going to be too far right...  Not to say it's impossible but I do think we will see a right bias here...  

NOGAPS is showing a track solution close to the GFS for Gustav...  Again for a global model, NOGAPS is showing a powerful hurricane striking the Panhandle of Florida Monday night...  Again like the GFS I'm not going to say that's impossible but I do think it's too far right...

The GFDL, or in this case, Gas 7 dollars a gallon model is showing BAD news for the US economy...  That's a strong Cat-4 heading straight for Houston, TX next Monday night...  I'll I have to say is I sure hope and pray that doesn't happen...  Unfortunately I think this is very possible and kind of scares me that the GFDL is picking up on this...  This would be DEVASTATING!!!

The HWRF has a healthy storm in the central Gulf...  If you look at the general track the HWRF has it's not good for the US economy...  The track takes it towards eastern Texas and western Louisiana...  Such an oil rich area of our country and another 7 dollar a gallon track...  Again I hope and pray this doesn't happen even though this is very possible!

So what does this all mean?  Well this morning the models were cluster shocking well, now as expected we are starting to see some divergence....  The GFS and NOGAPS takes Gustav into the Florida Panhandle...  The European and the Canadian take Gustav into Southern Texas/Northern Mexico...  And the GFDL and HWRF take Gustav into the Houston, TX area...  All are possible but I'm leaning more west at this point...  I do think the ridge will build in much stronger than the GFS/NOGAPS shows...  Not to say the trough won't create a weakness but I don't think it will be enough to cause such a hard right turn into the Panhandle of Florida...  Plus again referring to the teleconnections from last weak I don't think the trough will dig in much past the Mid-Atlantic states...  I'm worried the trough does create enough of a weakness to pull Gustav north enough that Houston becomes a problem area...  Personally I'm still leaning a little more west but I do think the Houston area should watch this Hurricane very very closely...  As I speak the new 0z early track guidance shows an ominous path for Louisiana and eastern Texas...  Unfortunately this is very possible and would be very bad news for our economy...  I really think 6 dollars if not 7 dollars a gallon is very reasonable for a short time with this type of track into the northern Gulf...

The bottom line is Gustav is going to be a monster...  I don't think it really matters where it hits in the Gulf because I truly believe a Cat-3 at landfall is almost immanent...  Especially when you consider the fact that it will have little to no dry air or shear once it enters the Gulf...  I will say that there is a big difference whether Gustav goes towards Texas like I believe and whether it goes towards the Panhandle of Florida like the GFS/NOGAPS thinks...  The image above is showing you where the loop current is and also where other warm eddies are in the Gulf...  These eddies are very warm deep areas of water that have historically caused hurricanes to explode as they travel over them...  Hence Katrina and Rita in 2005...  The more west Gustav goes the more time it will have over these warm deep waters which will not just help Gustav become a monster, but it will help it maintain it's monster status a lot longer...  This would cause a stronger hurricane at landfall...  One that is not weakening at landfall near as much as it would if it hit the Florida Panhandle...  

Why does this matter???  A strengthening storm will mix faster winds aloft down to the surface...  Doug Gillham has always taught us that a strengthening Cat-1 will cause stronger winds at the surface compared to a weakening Cat-2...  Katrina when it hit south Florida is a great example of this...  People in the Miami are were shocked at how strong a Cat-1 could be...  It just goes to show that even if your flight level winds support a Cat-5, unless you get those winds down to the surface it really doesn't matter to the public...  Again it's very important to understand that a strengthening hurricane mixes the faster winds aloft to the surface helping the hurricane reach it's full intensity...  I truly believe Gustav will reach Cat-5 status at some point in the Gulf especially if it takes the harder left track like I expect it to do...  This is not a not a lock but I think it's very possible...  

The image above shows you this threat...  The waters in the western Gulf near southern Texas/northern Mexico can support a sub 900mb hurricane (Cat-5)...  It also shows that the Gulf can support a Cat-4 hurricane all the way to Mobile, AL...  It even show Cat-3 potential in the Florida Panhandle...  Of course you have to have everything else in the atmosphere lined up perfectly for this to happen, but I think were looking at a major hurricane landfall early next week in the Gulf of Mexico...  Right now I'm thinking a Texas Landfall at Cat-4 strength...  Were about a week away so a lot of thing can happen but I feel pretty go with that forecast...  I do hope I'm wrong though, maybe it will only be a 3...  In closing I would like to thank Justyn Jackson for the last image above...  He just showed my that today and I thought it was really cool/interesting...  You should check out his blog as well if you want to learn some great stuff about weather...  He knows more about severe weather/tornadoes than anybody I know!!!

Worst Fears Coming True!!!

There is no doubt in my mind, Gustav is heading for the Gulf of Mexico...  I felt pretty strong about this yesterday but I was hoping I would be wrong...  Unfortunately it's not looking that way and my worst fears are coming true!!!  Gustav is currently 981mb with 90mph sustained winds...  It will interact with some land for the next couple of days but once it releases west LOOK OUT!!!  12z early track model guidance is remarkably clustered right now on western Cuba...  It's honestly one of the best 120 hour agreements I have seen in a long time...  

There is no doubt in my mind that Gustav will get into the Gulf of Mexico but from there it's a little tricky...  Looking at both visible and water vapor imagery the ridge is building in fast to the east...  I'm starting to wonder now if Gustav shoots the gap between the Yucatan and western Cuba which would only make things worse...  From there it's just a question of whether the trough this weekend pulls Gustav to the north and towards the northern Gulf Coast, or whether the trough misses Gustav allowing this monster to head for Texas...  That's really tough to say right now but if I had to pick one of those scenarios I would lean more towards a Texas threat, but again it's still too far out to say for sure!!!  I will say the 6z GFDL is showing a scary scenario for the New Orleans area...  I pray that's wrong...  We will see if the GFS has it's common right bias/error...  I personally feel it will and that's why I'm leaning more with a Texas landfall than a northern Gulf coast landfall...  Plus teleconnections tell me the trough should be fairly north, but again it's going to be really close!  I'll have a detailed update later tonight!!!  I hate to say it, but I'm praying for the best but expecting the worst at this point!!!  This really looks BAD!!!

Still holding off...

Finally the greatest depression of all time is now Tropical Storm Gustav according to the 2pm NHC update... Hurricane Warnings have already been issued for the southern coast of Hispaniola which is probably the fastest I have ever seen... Humberto last year was upgraded very fast, but I don't remember a storm going from a tropical wave to a depression to issuing hurricane warnings in 6 hours... One of the lessons I learned from Fay is not to be so quick with a definite forecast... The models are still having a lot of problems initializing Gustav so I'm going to wait until tomorrow to go into much more depth... Plus land interaction with both Hispaniola and Cuba is basically a coin flip...


We do know that the ridge is building back in strong from the east and this will eventually push Gustav off to the west... The problem is when does Gustav take that turn? This is the million dollar question because again 30 miles is going to make a HUGE difference... If it turns south of Cuba and head towards the Gulf we have a big problem on our hands... It it turns west over Cuba, riding a lot of the island, this will really hurt Gustav before it enters the Gulf... If it turns north of Cuba and heads toward the Gulf we also have a problem for the Keys and eventually a problem in the Gulf... Either way were going to have a tropical system in the Gulf, it just depends on how strong of a system we have... Hit a lot of land then it won't be that bad initially... Miss a lot of land then we have a monster on our hands before it even gets into the Gulf...


My gut tells me that were going to have a typical bias/error with the GFS... You would think it's underestimating the strength of the ridge which would lead me to go with a track just south of Cuba... Even though I will say the 12z GFDL takes Gustav across western Cuba into the Gulf... That actually scares me a little but we will see if that keeps up in the next day or two... Unfortunately this would be the worst track for the Gulf Coast as we could have a major hurricane entering the Gulf this Friday/Saturday... Were still 4/5 days away from that so again I'm going to hold off on a definite track/intensity forecast... My gut does say more south and west though... I hope I'm wrong because that would be bad news for the US... Just look at the heat potential across western Cuba into the south east Gulf of Mexico... That looks really really bad!!! Plus by this time Gustav will be under a upper level high which will just help ventilate this storm and promote rapid intensification... Southern track equals deep warm water, low shear, good ventilation, and a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this Labor Day weekend!!!

Greatest Depression of all Time!!!

That is the best tropical depression I have ever seen in my life... It looks like it's already trying to form an eye like feature... You can especially see this when you loop the visible satellite image... I'll be posting later on the tropics but I wanted to at least show you this... If it wasn't for Hispaniola and Cuba, the US would be in big big trouble!!!

Hurricane Andrew...

Early this morning was the 16 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew... Officially the 3rd and last Category 5 to hit the US... Considering the fact my parents live in Coral Gables I have heard many stories about this killer storm... One of the more amazing stories I heard was from Cuban gentlemen who was living in Homestead at the time... He described what he called a breach in his home which led to catastrophic failure... He told me the laundry room breached and he quickly got his wife and two kids and rushed them into an interior bathroom... He held onto the door for dear life and even told me a couple of times he thought he wasn't going to be able to hold the door shut any longer as his entire house was being destroyed by Andrew... By the grace of God he was able to keep that door shut and when it was all over he walked out with his family to absolutely nothing... The bathroom his family rode out the storm in was the only room left as the rest of his house was scattered down the block... Plus keep in mind that he is one of the better home builders in South Florida so his home was up to standards.... He just took the absolute worst Andrew had to offer...



Hurricane Andrew made landfall just south of Miami, near Homestead, Fl at around 5am on August 24th 1992... At the time Andrew was thought to be a strong Category-4 at 150mph... 12 years later a reanalysis project by the HRD concluded that Andrew was a Category-5 at 165mph... Personally I agree with the reanalysis 100%... To this date Andrew made landfall as the 4th strongest hurricane by pressure in US history... A pressure of 922mb (27.23") at landfall is 4th to Katrina at 920mb, Camille at 909mb, and The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 at 892mb... Funny only one of those storms is not a Category-5, but that's another topic for another day... The radar image above is the last image Miami received before the radar was damaged/failed... Officially the highest recorded surface wind gust was observed at 177mph about one mile from the shore in Perrine, FL... Also officially the highest recorded storm surge was observed at 16.9 feet on SW 184th street which was the former location of Burger King's world corporate headquarters... Needless to say the damage was incredible!!!



Hurricane Andrew at the time was the costliest US hurricane in history... Today it ranks second to Hurricane Katrina... When you convert to 2005 dollar amounts Andrew had 55.8 billion dollars in damage where Katrina had 81.2 billion dollars in damage... As bad as Andrew was it actually could have been a lot worse... If Andrew would have made landfall about 30 miles north, then Miami, Miami beach, and South Beach would have been completely annihilated... It would have been especially worse today as Miami and South Florida in general has doubled in size since 1992... Even today when I go to visit my parents you can see 80 story tall skyscrapers being built right on the beach... It really is mind boggling to me and unfortunately it's a disaster in the making...



The proof of this is what has already happened in the past... In 1926 Miami took a direct hit from a strong Category 4 hurricane (935mb) at 150mph (estimated)... The city was completely destroyed... When converting to 2005 dollar amounts the 1926 Miami hurricane had 157 billion dollars in damage... This would rank it number 1 ahead of Katrina... Actually in 2005 dollars, Katrina would be ranked third behind the Galveston 1900 hurricane which had 99.4 billion dollars in damage... That's just scary in my opinion!!! My parents next door neighbor who is in his 90's has been living in South Florida all his life... He has talked to me a few times about the 1926 hurricane and told me that even where my parents house is located in Coral Gables (~ 5 miles inland), it was under 4 to 5 feet of water during that hurricane... Can you even imagine today what Miami would look like if another 1926 hurricane came??? I think damage would be well over 500 billion dollars and the loss of life would be much higher than Katrina (10,000+)...



On a side note the University of Miami mascot was named after this tragedy, hence the Miami Hurricanes!!! UM was founded in 1925 and opened its doors just days after the hurricane passed... The campus was basically destroyed by the hurricane of 1926... Interestingly the university survived by harvesting coral from the area to repair the school... Ironically UM is located in Coral Gables and it's really interesting to me how all the names line up with historical events!!! Pretty cool in my opinion...