Going to wait and see...

I know I said I was going to do a detailed tropical discussion tonight but honestly at this point I feel basically the same as I did yesterday...  Gustav was looking really ragged a few hours ago only to jump SW, moving it away from Hispaniola, which is helping it get it's act back together...  The inflow is improving and you can see two distinct outflow bands developing rapidly...  Jamaica will slow its potential to strengthen but once it gets past the west coast of Jamaica, LOOK OUT!!!  I think Friday Gustav is going to show us that he means business...  I still don't like the look of this and it gives me a sick feeling in the pit of my gut!

There is no doubt that models have shifted to the right today...  However I'm still sticking with landfall around the Houston, TX area...  Not that I'm wish-casting this left even though as someone that was in Gulfport, MS when Katrina hit I'm the last person that wants to see Gustav hit anywhere near that area...  I'm just going to stand on two principles I live by when it comes to tropical forecasting...  One, the GFS almost always has a right bias/error...  It doesn't mean it will this time but most of the time it has a horrendous time with heat transfer and almost always underestimates the strength on the ridge...  Two, not only does the GFS have a problem with heat transfer, one of the main reasons it underestimates the strength of the ridge is the fact that it doesn't take into account that we are going to have a Cat 4/5 in the middle of the Gulf...  Why does this matter, well when you have a Cat 5 hurricane think how much latent heat is being released into the atmosphere...  All that extra heat goes into the ridge, pumping it up, and forcing the hurricane more west than the GFS thinks...  My track is on the western side of the NHC's cone and until I see a reason to change it, I"M NOT!!!  I see a Cat-4 landfall in eastern Texas at this point...  Similar to Rita but unfortunately probably a little stronger...  More to come tomorrow!!!