Wow!!! That's all I can say right now... Fay jumped due north last night and now looks to me like it's almost moving a little east of north... This would mean the worst of Fay would affect the Keys and Southern Florida... At 2am the center was near 81.1 W and at 5am the center was near 81.9 W... The NHC takes the center near where Charley went, but honestly I'm starting to think that's too far west... It really looks to me like the center either reformed east or took a huge jump north and east... My thinking now is Fay's center will move a little east of Key West and strike near Naples, FL... Even though the strongest convection is well east of the center so people in Miami need to take some notice... The Miami area will see solid Tropical Storm force winds (50mph + gust) which looked impossible yesterday afternoon... What's funny is around midday Sunday Joe Bastardi had Fay hitting the Ft. Myers area... Honestly I laughed and now it looks like he will be really close if not perfect with his forecast... Great job Joe, you are going to end up being the closest with this one!!! I would love to talk to you one day and ask you how you knew that yesterday afternoon??? Man I'm at a loss of words with this one... I guess it just goes to show you how hard forecasting really is! I'll give a detailed recap later this afternoon/tonight... Fay will probably only reach a minimal Cat-1 but still my thoughts and prayer go out for the people of Florida today!!!
2 comments:
And the winner is: the NHC!
What could be worse is if it does go further east, runs into the ridge and stalls. This would only allow for Fay to strengthen and then push back towards the east coast, somewhere between SC and Florida. The new GFS scenario is NOT good...and the European had the same model output yesterday at 12Z!
The winner is Joe Bastardi... The NHC lost their victory at 5pm yesterday when they flipped their position and showed landfall in Apalachicola Bay... Also with the NHC not even being able to recognize a tropical wave from a tropical storm and the fact they didn't even have the center right until yesterday, in my eyes they are far from a winner!!! I'll give them some props but Bastardi CRUSHED them... Not a surprise though… I never should have doubted him!!!
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