Gustav is pounding Jamaica with torrential rain and gusty winds... Currently Gustav is a strong tropical storm with 70mph winds and a pressure of 988mb... The land interaction with Jamaica has prevented Gustav from strengthening today... Look out though, because when Gustav gets west of Jamaca you are going to see this storm bomb out! Joe Bastardi from accuweather is calling for a 30-50mb drop in pressure in 24 hours... I think that's very attainable!!! By tomorrow night Gustav will begin to show everyone that he means business...
The NHC and the models have shifted west today... This is starting to become more in line with what I'm thinking... I feel even more confident today then yesterday with my forecast... I'm still sticking with a Cat-4 landfall along the eastern Texas coast... Much more similar to Rita than Katrina in my opinion... Unfortunately the more west this storm goes the stronger it will be... Its even looking very possible that Gustav could miss western Cuba heading through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico... That would only make things worse so hopefully Gustav will clip western Cuba... Any land interaction at this point is a good thing considering that nothing else is going to slow this monster down!!!
I will say there is still a lot that can happen so anything is possible... If you live between Houston and Mobile you need to take this storm VERY seriously... I'm personally going with a western track but again if you live in Lake Charles, New Orleans, Gulfport, or Mobile please watch this storm very closely!!! Today's 12z European showed a scary situation for New Orleans... Usually the euro is my model of choice for the tropics so the 12z run does scare me a little... I feel strong that it is too far west but again at this point is still way to early to say for sure! I just hope and pray that this storm stays Far Far away from Mississippi... After seeing what I saw with Katrina it would just break my heart to see the Mississippi Coast get hit again!!!
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