The european is showing the next possible system heading near the Caribbean islands in 7 days.. If the Euro is right, it looks to be fairly healthy/strong... The storm would be named Gustav... We have begun to enter an upswing in tropical activity that will probably continue for close to a month... We are experiencing a positive phase of MJO activity which is just basically an area of rising motions of air which enhance tropical activity... The negative phase would hurt tropical activity because of sinking motions of air... In any given year there are periods of enhanced/suppressed activity within the season... There is evidence that the MJO enhances this activity (particularly for the strongest storms) by providing a large-scale environment that is favorable/unfavorable for development... The strongest tropical cyclones tend to develop when the MJO favors enhanced precipitation. You can see the favorable rising motions off the eastern seaboard, the west coast of Africa, and nearing the Gulf of Mexico...
On a crazy/funny/sickening note, look what the European is doing with Fay... That's not going to happen, but still...
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