Today is the 3 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina... Without a doubt the saddest day in my life... Someday on here I'll give a detailed account on the events of that day but with Gustav approaching and possibly Hannah behind him today doesn't seem like the best time to relive that horrible day! I will say that without any doubt in my mind that Katrina was a Category-5... 920mb Cat-3??? Sure whatever you say... I mean if you want to argue that it was a 4 not a 5, then fine I'm cool with that... But if you tell me it's a 3 then I will just laugh... Again I'll have a detailed account someday writing all my thoughts about this historic and tragic event... Just not today!
Gustav has formed an eye and is starting to ramp up big time! Pressure is down to 974mb with sustained winds of 80mph... I think by morning Gustav will be a Cat-2 and a Cat-3 by tomorrow evening... Gustav is moving away from land into a near perfect environment! This is just the beginning as I still expect Gustav to get to a Cat-5 in the Gulf... Hopefully I'll be wrong but things look near perfect for intensification over the next few days... Plus Gustav is about to enter some of the highest heat potential in the entire Atlantic/Gulf... Think of the ocean heat potential as CAPE for the hurricane... And Gustav is about to move into CAPE values approaching 10,000 J/KG which can easily support a Cat-5...
My track forecast still has not changed with Gustav... I still expect the ridge to build in stronger than the models expect pushing Gustav more west into eastern Texas... For the most part the NHC and the Models haven't shifted a whole lot today... I actually like what the NHC is doing with the track... Personally I feel a track over the middle of Louisiana is the least likely track but definitely the most responsible... I believe either two things happen... One the weakness is strong enough to pull Gustav towards New Orleans/Mississippi. Two the ridge builds in strong and pushes Gustav to Texas/Louisiana... I write a blog that a few people read, where the NHC issues forecasts to millions to people... Now don't get me wrong sometimes I'm critical of the NHC and definitely don't agree with them all the time but in this case I think they are making the right call... They have to cover themselves especially considering the area you are talking about here... Were only 3 years removed from Katrina and to many it still feel like yesterday... Eventually the NHC is going to have to take a hard line, but for now I think they are doing the right thing...
When you put everything together things still look really bad to me... You have extremely high ocean heat content, little to no wind shear, little to no dry air, and only the western tip of Cuba in the way of Gustav and the northern Gulf coast... When you put it together I'm still sticking with a Cat-4 (135mph) landfall in eastern Texas... Of course this doesn't mean I'm going to be right ( I honestly hope I'm not), but like yesterday and the day before I still don't see anything that is making me want to change my forecast... While I do think Gustav hits Cat-5 status at some point in the Gulf, it will weaken some before landfall... However I'll keep saying this to anyone that wants to listen... The further west Gustav goes the stronger it will be!!! Tomorrow night as Gustav starts to cross western Cuba and head into the Gulf I'll post a detailed tropical discussion and update my feelings on the track and intensity... I will have a much better idea on the track tomorrow night and especially Sunday! I'm still in a wait and see mode but don't have any changes to my track/intensity forecast with Gustav at this time!
2 comments:
"The further west Gustav goes the stronger it will be!!!" == I definitely agree with that statement. -- and also think this means a slower moving system at landfall, which will likely cause all kinds of other issues.
But I do think the NHC has the track about right on...its unbelievable how almost all of the models have come into line. Its rare to see almost all the tropical models within about 50 miles of each other at landfall which is still t+72 hours away.
The NHC may nail it but I still think it either goes more east or more west... Personally I still like eastern Texas but at the very least I think it won't go east of Lake Charles.. Who knows though, time will tell... Not to wish it on anyone, but the middle of Louisiana would probably be the best cast scenario... The population and infrastructure impact would be much less... We will know by late tomorrow night when it crosses western Cuba and gets into the Gulf... Well, we SHOULD know a lot more at least???
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