Models all over the place...

The European is still showing a tropical cyclone near Hispaniola next Thursday night... Interestingly enough the Euro is showing very little movement in days 4-7 with this system as it just barely drifts westward...


The Canadian is showing a healthy tropical cyclone near the western half of Cuba next Thursday morning... It's not only much more progressive than the European, it also takes the system on a much more south and west track...


The GFDL is much more in line with the Canadian, also showing a healthy tropical cyclone south of Cuba and west of Jamaica next Wednesday afternoon... The GFDL gets the system up to 107knots as is scrapes the northern coast of Jamaica...


The HRWF shows a tropical cyclone slamming into Hispaniola and basically being destroyed by the 10,000 foot mountains next Wednesday afternoon... The HRWF did have the system near the Lesser Antilles at 56 knots before it's death into Hispaniola...


The GFS is not showing anything for next Friday morning... This is actually a little weird to me since the GFDL is showing such a strong tropical cyclone... Remember the GFDL is initialized off GFS model data so again I find it a little weird that nothing is showing up! I'm sure we will start to see something soon from the GFS!


The moral to this story is the models are all over the place right now... Of course this makes sense as we don't even have a named system to follow yet... I'm sure once something does form the models will slowly start to come together... I just wanted to show you what some of the models were doing with this possible soon to be storm... It's always good to follow the models so you can keep up with trends, errors/bias, and of course which model had the best handle from day 1... Time will tell which one is going to be right but I feel very confident that if anything does develop in the Caribbean, we will have a landfalling tropical cyclone of our hands near the end of Labor Day weekend... Teleconnections tell us we have a landfalling threat to the US and the MJO tells us we have a good chance for development in the Atlantic... Pardon the pun, but the tropics are beginning to heat up!!!