NO CHANGES HERE!!!

Call me stubborn all you want, but I'm sticking to my forecast...  Especially after looking at satellite imagery all day long...  Even now looking at IR imagery I just sit there scratching my head wondering why the NHC has the center of the Fay where they do???  To me it's as much as 50 miles south and west of where the NHC has it...  Even people on stormtrack.org are starting to notice this as Warren Faidley stated a telling comment earlier today, "Is it just me, or does the latest IR image appear to place the center of Fay somewhat (a good clip) to the west of the 1200 UTC model consensus? This would be bad news for the Gulf Coast regions west of Florida if Cuba does not really disrupt the storm."  I couldn't agree more with Warren...  Time will tell and if the NHC nails the Charley like track then I will give them credit where credit is do...  At this point I just don't understand why they have the center where they do...

One other thing I was thinking about earlier which will help Fay move left of the NHC's track is the fact that it hasn't started to explode yet...  The longer it holds off in doing this, the longer it will move west...  Once it starts to intensify you will see that turn, but by then it will in my opinion be too late for a Charley track and most likely will lead to a Florida Panhandle strike...  The reason why is, the stronger the storm the higher the thunderstorms, which allows the upper level winds to steer the hurricane...  The weaker the storm is the lower the wind level steering...  So right now at 1005mb, Fay is being steered by the 700-850mb mean level...  Please tell me why it's going to turn so north so fast???  I mean it is going to turn, no doubt, but why as fast as the NHC thinks? Remember if the center is 50 miles south and west of where they think it is, and even if it does turn hard right as fast as they think it will, Fay will still miss to the north of their track...  We still have at least 12 hours if not 24 hours of a westward movement before the turn really begins...

In general for tropical cyclones:

1000 - 1010mb -  700-850mb mean steering level

990 - 999mb -  500-850mb mean steering level

970 - 989mb -  400-850mb mean steering level

950 - 969mb -  300-850mb mean steering level

940 - 949mb -  250-850mb mean steering level

<  940mb -  200-700mb mean steering level

Hey on a fun note, I hope everyone has had a chance to watch Michael Phelps swim...  All I have to say is WOW!!! Yesterday's 100m butterfly was one of the best swimming races I have ever seen...  Also the 4 x 100m freestyle relay earlier this week was incredible as well...  It's not the most amazing thing I have seen in sports, but it's the most amazing thing I have seen in the Olympics!!!