I'm going to wait on Fay's recap when I know she is done with.... Unfortunately everything I'm seeing now is pointing to a problem for South Carolina... First you can notice how Florida is pulling Fay to the right... This is VERY similar to what happened with Charley in 2004! When a tropical cyclone is approaching the western side of Florida the friction of the land slows down the winds on the eastern side... The western side is over water so you are not seeing the friction which causes the winds to be faster... Because of the slower winds on the eastern side and the faster winds on the western side you see an inbalance and a turn to the right... That's what is going on right now with Fay and that's why it will be south and east of the NHC's current track...
In my opinion the friction pulls Fay south and east of the track, moving it just west of Lake Okeechobee and probably causing it to pop out very close to Melbourne, FL.... This will make a big difference in the end game of Fay and is why I'm not going to write up my thoughts on this pain in the you know what storm! I actually like the general idea of the NHC's track, I just think because of the more south and east movement Fay will spend a lot more time over water.... Plus you have to remember we're talking about the Gulf Stream so I fully expect Fay to ramp back stronger than it was when it hits near the Naples, FL area.... The ridge will build back over the next few days, pushing Fay back to the west like the NHC shows, but by then I think Fay will be a hurricane heading towards the South Carolina coast...
I'm not going to guarantee anything with this storm anymore, but I stand strong on my current thoughts... I don't have any give up in my blood and I'll never back down to anyone or anything! So when it comes to forecasting I just shoot from the hip and go with what I feel... Of course I try my best to ALWAYS back it up with my experiences from the past, things I have learned from Doug Gillham, and things I have seen storm chasing with LDCT... Sometimes you are right and sometimes you are wrong but I'm not going to change anything about the way I forecast!
I see Fay striking South Carolina as a hurricane Thursday afternoon/night which is stronger than it is right now! Anyone else want to jump onboard? This train is about to leave, so jump on before it's too late... 18z GFDL has a Cat 2 hitting the South Carolina/Georgia border... I think it may be a little bit more north, but I do think a Cat-2 is very possible with the track over the Gulf Stream!!! Fay sure is one stubborn storm that won't give anyone a break... I have a feeling that I'm going to chase this storm and by the time it's over, it will be one of the most grueling experiences in my life! I hope you are ready Fay because I'm coming for you! Payback is coming...
2 comments:
You might want to think about going to the Georgia/Florida border. I think South Carolina is too far north. Even then, I think it might even be worth waiting for Fay to make it to the panhandle to LA coast. It would be a much shorter drive! I think the NHC is too far north right now with the track.
Like I said in my post I'm not going to guarantee anything anymore, but I still think the NHC is too far left with the track... I may be a little right, but I still think it gets closer to the Georgia/South Carolina border than the Georgia/Florida border... Also the NHC's strength is WAY TOO low in my opinion... This will be a hurricane even is it does go further west than I think... If it's further north and east like I predict, I think we will have a Cat-2 on our hands if not even a small chance at a Cat-3... So Ryan, you going to come chase this one with me? The drive is not that bad!!! haha
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